1st Round Wide Receivers and Productivity Scores

A reader recently commented on my Cordarrelle Patterson article saying that “I don’t think the statistics-based story (against him) is going to play out well.”  This reader then brought up some excellent points about notable JUCO transfers and how they did in their first year and how they went on to become NFL stars.  Really, it was good stuff.

But the question isn’t about their first year after JUCO; the question is about their LAST year before the NFL.  So, for fun, I compiled the Productivity Scores of every first round wide receiver since 2005.  I’m not saying productivity score is the be-all-end-all of predictors.  It is, however, one part of the prediction.  As you’ll see below, it certainly seems to be at least a prerequisite for entering the round one conversation.

See by year, or by everyone sorted (below)

2012:

Justin Blackmon– 75

Michael Floyd– 78

Kendall Wright– 71

AJ Jenkins–110

2011:

AJ Green– 85

Julio Jones– 64

Jonathan Baldwin– 63

2010:

Demaryius Thomas– 145

Dez Bryant– 123  (2008 season)

2009:

Darius Heyward-Bey– 72

Michael Crabtree– 62

Jeremy Maclin– 60

Percy Harvin– 49

Hakeem Nicks– 107

Kenny Britt–71

2008:

None..Donnie Avery top WR at pick 33, score– 69)

2007:

Calvin Johnson– 111

Tedd Ginn JR– 58

Dwayne Bowe– 70

Robert Meachem– 86

Craig “Buster” Davis– 39

Anthony Gonzalez– 53

2006:

Santonio Holmes– 97

2005:

Braylon Edwards– 108

Troy Williamson– 92

Mike Williams– 76 (2003 season)

Matt Jones– played QB in college

Mark Clayton (okla)–49

Roddy White– 101

SORTED  

22/28 Round 1 wide receivers had a productivity score over 60.  While there is no guarantee of success, it does certainly seem to be a starting point for the conversation.  If you want to make the Percy Harvin argument, that’s fine, but read below to see why even that doesn’t help Patterson’s case.

Demaryius Thomas– 145

Dez Bryant– 123  (2008 season)

Calvin Johnson– 111

AJ Jenkins–110

Braylon Edwards– 108

Hakeem Nicks– 107

Roddy White– 101

Santonio Holmes– 97

Troy Williamson– 92

Robert Meachem– 86

AJ Green– 85

Michael Floyd– 78

Mike Williams– 76 (2003 season)

Justin Blackmon– 75

Darius Heyward-Bey– 72

Kendall Wright– 71

Kenny Britt–71

Dwayne Bowe– 70

Julio Jones– 64

Jonathan Baldwin– 63

Michael Crabtree– 62

Jeremy Maclin– 60

———-

Tedd Ginn JR– 58

Anthony Gonzalez– 53  (ACL)

Percy Harvin– 49

Mark Clayton (Okla)–49

Craig “Buster” Davis– 39

Cordarrelle Patterson?– 35

Matt Jones– played QB in college

Footnote:  Patterson vs Harvin

  • Patterson, 12 games, 2012— 25 rushes, 308 yards, 3 TD—46 receptions, 778 yards, 5TD
  • Harvin, 12 games, 2008—70 rushes, 668 yards, 10 TD—40 receptions, 644 yards, 7TD
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