The College Football Market Share Report – Week 3 recap

Welcome to the College Football Market Share Report, where each week I’ll be running through the players who are shouldering an exceptional percentage of their team’s offense.

In the past, my prospect analysis has typically waited until after the season to get going, but by tracking these metrics on a weekly basis in season we can more easily identify exceptional talents before everyone else does.

Note that the commentary below will highlight the most recent week’s top performers as well as seasonal leaders. Also, since this is somewhat of an experimental article, I’m going to ask for your feedback on how this should evolve moving forward, so feel free to leave a comment.

As this is somewhat dense with numbers, I’d recommend skimming through the names and then checking out the blurbs at the bottom of each section.

Quarterbacks of the week

Shuler Bentley, Old Dominion, 93.9% of team’s offensive yards

  • 151 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, -12 rush yards vs NC State

Blake Frohnapfel, UMass, 87.4%

  • 393 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, -10 rush yards vs Temple

Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky, 87.1%

  • 484 pass yards, 3 TD, 2 INT, 11 rush yards @ Indiana

P.J. Walker, Temple, 83.6%

  • 391 pass yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, -8 rush yards @ UMass

Chad Kelly, Ole Miss, 83.6%

  • 341 pass yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 21 rush yards @ Alabama

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 83.6%

  • 443 pass yards, 4 TD, 0 INT, 41 rush yards vs Memphis

Jake Browning, Washington, 83%

  • 368 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, -1 rush yards vs Utah State

C.J. Beathard, Iowa, 81.8%

  • 258 pass yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 39 rush yards vs Pitt

Jerrod Heard, Texas, 81.1%

  • 364 pass yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 163 rush yards vs California

Tyler Jones, Texas State, 79.5%

  • 310 pass yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 160 rush yards vs Southern Miss

There’s a lot to talk about here. Texas’ Jerrod Heard went bananas on national TV against Cal and drew comparisons to Vince Young… Chad “Swag” Kelly took Ole Miss on the road and defeated Alabama. No small feat. The Rebels are now the #3 ranked team in the country… It looks like Washington coach Chris Petersen (formerly at Boise) has his new Kellen Moore. Somewhat undersized freshman Jake Browning has been great so far… Finally, shoutout to Tyler Jones from Texas State, who Benjamin Allbright and I were discussing on Twitter late last week and then Jones proceeds to put up 470 yards of total offense.  Maybe undersized, maybe from a small conference, but maybe really awesome? Time will tell.

QB Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Offensive Yards

Luke Falk, Washington State, 80.5%

Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky, 78.8%

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 77.5%

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 77.0%

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 76.8%

Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut, 75.5%

Johnny McCrary, Vanderbilt, 75.1%

Matt Linehan, Idaho, 74.1%

Matt Davis, SMU, 73.4%

Blake Kemp, East Carolina, 73.2%

Nothing too surprising here – three quarterbacks from pass-happy teams leading the way – but this is probably a helpful list to keep in mind for finding undervalued DFS quarterbacks.

Running backs of the week

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 58.1% of team’s offensive yards

  • 15 rush yards, 71 receiving yards, 1 rec. TD vs NC State

Demario Richard, Arizona State, 56.8%

  • 104 rush yards, 4 receptions, 151 receiving yards, 2 rec. TD vs New Mexico

Devontae Booker, Utah, 55.8%

  • 156 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 5 receptions, 56 receiving yards @ Fresno

Paul Perkins, UCLA, 54.5%

  • 219 rush yards, 1 rush TD vs BYU

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 51.5%

  • 102 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 5 receptions, 55 receiving yards vs South Alabama

Justin Jackson, Northwestern, 50.9%

  • 120 rush yards, 2 receptions, 18 receiving yards @ Duke

Nick Holley, Kent State, 50%

  • 58 rush yards, 3 receptions, 13 receiving yards @ Minnesota

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 48.9%

  • 228 rush yards, 3 rush TD, 1 reception, 9 rec. yards vs Auburn

Tyler Ervin, SJSU, 48.6%

  • 93 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 6 receptions, 30 rec. yards @ Oregon State

Joel Bouagnon, Northern Illinois, 45.3%

  • 78 rush yards, 3 receptions, 8 rec. yards @ Ohio State

On a team with national championship aspirations, but lead by a freshman quarterback, UCLA’s Paul Perkins is quietly putting together a fantastic season. If he can continue to take the load of Josh Rosen and the Bruins win the Pac-12 South (two BIG ifs) I would think Perkins would be a Heisman finalist. And he’s not just a one-hit wonder; he balled in 2014 too.

RB Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Offensive Yards

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 51.3%

Aaron Jones, UTEP, 51.0%

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 48.2%

Devontae Booker, Utah, 45.1%

Jahad Thomas, Temple, 44.6%

Kareem Hunt, Toledo, 41.7%

Devon Johnson, Marshall, 38.4%

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 38.0%

Brian Hill, Wyoming, 37.5%

Demario Richard, Arizona State, 37.5%

Maybe you’ve never heard of Ray Lawry (2017 eligible), but it’s time to start paying attention. The 5’11 200b sophomore is a one-man wrecking crew for the Monarchs… speaking of which, how about Leonard Fournette? In consecutive weeks he has torn apart SEC defenses and in the process seen his Heisman odds go from 13-1 on September 8 (eighth-best odds) to 3.5-1 this week, which makes him the Vegas favorite to win the award.

Receivers of the week

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 63.7% of team’s receiving yards

  • 8 receptions, 193 rec. yards, 2 rec. TD vs Rice

Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 63.2%

  • 8 receptions, 156 rec. yards, 3 rec. TD vs Air Force

DaeSean Hamilton, Penn State, 61.0%

  • 5 receptions, 86 rec. yards vs Rutgers

Trent Sherfield, Vanderbilt, 60.9%

  • 16 receptions, 240 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Austin Peay

Gerald Everett, South Alabama, 60.7%

  • 8 receptions, 164 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ SDSU

Roger Lewis, Bowling Green, 58.9%

  • 7 receptions, 261 rec. yards, 3 rec. TD vs Memphis

Tyler Boyd, Pitt, 57.7%

  • 10 receptions, 131 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD, 7 rush yards @ Iowa

DeAndre Bell, Army, 57.4%

  • 1 reception, 31 rec. yards vs Wake Forest

JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC, 56.3%

  • 8 receptions, 153 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Stanford

DeBrandon Sanders, Navy, 56.1%

  • 1 reception, 23 rec. yards, 1 rush, 20 rush yards vs East Carolina

Jordan Payton, UCLA, 55.7%

  • 4 receptions, 59 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs BYU

Even if Air Force isn’t exactly a defensive juggernaut, Aaron Burbridge’s performance shouldn’t be discounted. He’s strung together three consecutive 100+ yard games to start the season, is catching passes from Connor Cook and has the size to intrigue NFL types. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Cody Latimer-esque ascent over the next six months. Just something to monitor.

WR Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Receiving Yards

Jamir Tillman, Navy, 72.2%

Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh, 55.5%

Chris Godwin, Penn State, 55.1%

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 54.1%

Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 53.8%

Will Fuller, Notre Dame, 52.1%

Dameon Gamblin, New Mexico, 51.2%

Tanner Gentry, Wyoming, 49.1%

Devin Scott, Louisiana-Lafayette, 48.1%

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 47.4%

Should I exclude military school players from this list, since their likelihood of NFL relevance is so unlikely?… Tyler Boyd is the most noteworthy player here for several reasons. First, he’s putting together an awesome season as the obvious focal point of the offense and still nobody can stop him. Also, his birth year had been previously reported as 1993, but now the official Pitt website lists it as 1994. If it’s true that he’s a year younger than we originally thought – a 20 year old freshman in 2013 – his dynasty stock gets a significant boost on several fronts… And say what’s up to Will Fuller, who is smallish, but is tearing it up for the Irish.

Special Teams Studs of the week

Earlier this year at Rotoviz I detailed the hidden value of special teams stats in prospect analysis. Keeping with that theme, here’s a look at the top players making an impact in the return game.

Devin Fuller, UCLA, 194 return yards vs BYU

Ryan Switzer, UNC, 168 return yards, 1 ret. TD vs Illinois

Shon Cardon, South Carolina, 162 return yards @ Georgia

Johnny Holton, Cincinnati, 125 return yards @ Miami OH

DJ May, Wyoming, 122 return yards @ Washington State

Brandon Smith, Texas State, 122 return yards vs Southern Miss

Diontae Johnson, Toledo, 119 return yards vs Iowa State

Adoree’ Jackson, USC, 118 return yards vs Stanford

Solomon Vault, Northwestern, 118 return yards, 1 ret. TD @ Duke

Brett Winnegan, UTSA, 112 return yards   @ Oklahoma State

If there’s a Wes Welker-type prospect (undersized, premium special teamer) on this list it’s Ryan Switzer. In his debut campaign in 2013 he averaged more than 20 yards per punt return and is back on a similar path this year after being kept somewhat under wraps last year. Also, randomly, he’s thrown two passes in his career – indicating a high level of trust by the coaching staff – both of which went for touchdowns.

Special Teams Leaders – Seasonal Top 10

Janarion Grant, Rutgers, 129.3 return yards/g

Kylen Towner, WKU, 107.0

Autrey Golden, UTEP, 96.6

Christian Kirk, Texas A&M, 93.7

Brett Winnegan, UTSA, 93.0

De’Chavon “Gump” Hayes, Arizona State, 87.5

Jeremiah Bryson, MTSU, 84.3

Diontae Johnson, Toledo, 82.0

Devin Fuller, UCLA, 79.7

Eric Hawkins, Arkansas, 79.5

One player on this list who made a huge splash on opening weekend and who I’ve been meaning to write about is Texas A&M freshman Christian Kirk. He’s a solid 5’11 200lbs, doesn’t turn 19 until November and is already balling. In addition to his special teams contributions, he’s also contributing on offense. At this point, he’s probably the most valuable 2015 freshman devy prospect in the game.

QUESTIONS

  1. For wide receivers, I like “market share of receiving yards” since we’ve used those for a while and people generally understand the continuum, but what did you think about the QB and RB breakdowns being based on market share of offense? Is there something else you’d rather see?
  2. Should I keep service academy players out of this list since they almost never end up playing in the NFL and part of this exercise is to help in prospect identification?
  3. Would you like access to the data set that helped generate this article? If so, you could email me at THECFX at GMAIL dot COM, or I could just set up a link with a free download. Let me know.
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One thought on “The College Football Market Share Report – Week 3 recap

  1. Joe

    Love the article. A few replays to your questions…

    1. For QBs, it may be beneficial to reference what a “good” MS number is. Taking a few guesses, I’d think Kliff Kingsbury > Andrew Luck > Trent Dilfer in terms of season/career MS, but does that tell us anything? I think the RB metric is a little easier to digest with no other information given.
    2. No preference; they’re an interesting (entertaining) data point if nothing else.
    3. A dataset link would be fantastic. Would you see this as a running YTD dataset, or several weekly listings?

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