The College Football Market Share Report – Week 4 Recap

Welcome to the College Football Market Share Report, where each week I’ll be running through the players who are shouldering an exceptional percentage of their team’s offense AND defense. Yes, this week I’ve added three defensive metrics to the conversation. I also, separated out the Tight End group, so we can start monitoring them.

In the past, my prospect analysis has typically waited until after the season to get going, but by tracking these stats on a weekly basis in season we can more easily identify exceptional talents before everyone else does.

Note that the commentary below will highlight the most recent week’s top performers as well as seasonal leaders. Also, since this is somewhat of an experimental article, I’m going to ask for your feedback on how this should evolve moving forward, so feel free to leave a comment.

Be warned that this article is dense with numbers. I’d recommend skimming through the names and then checking out the blurbs at the bottom of each section.

**Finally, if you are introduced to any new players through this article, and you end up writing about them, please link back to this work. Thanks!**

Quarterbacks of the week

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss, 92.1% of offensive yards

447 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, -25 rush yards @ Nebraska

Ryan Metz, UTEP, 90.2%

275 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 46 rush yards vs Incarnate Word

Cameron Coffman, Wyoming, 87.7%

366 pass yards, 4 TD, 2 INT, -8 rush yards vs New Mexico

Alex McGough, FIU, 87.7%

263 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 7 rush yards @ Louisiana Tech

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State, 87.1%

270 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 14 rush yards @ Auburn

Kyle Allen, Texas A&M, 85.8%

358 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 5 rush yards @ Arkansas

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 85.3%

402 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 58 rush yards @ Purdue

David Blough, Purdue, 84.5%

340 pass yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 11 rush yards, 1 rush TD vs BG

Cody Kessler, USC, 83.7%

375 pass yards, 5 TD, 1 INT, 6 rush yards @ Arizona State

Brenden Motley, Virginia Tech, 83.4%

281 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 85 rush yards, 1 rush TD @ ECU

For as much buzz as Dak Prescott got last year, it feels like he’s under-appreciated this year, despite posting nearly as impressive numbers through four games… Let’s just appreciate BG’s Matt Johnson for a moment; he’s thrown for 400 yards in each game this season, including three road contests against Power-5 foes (@Tennessee, @Maryland, @Purdue). He won two of those games.

QB Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Offensive Yards

Luke Falk, Washington State, 80.5%

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 79.3%

Brandon Doughty, WKU, 78.0%

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 77.0%

Cameron Coffman, Wyoming, 76.7%

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 76.5%

Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut, 75.2%

Matt Lineham, Idaho, 73.9%

Matt Davis, SMU, 73.3%

Johnny McCrary, Vanderbilt, 72.9%

Last week I got a question about “what’s a good market share for quarterbacks?” To be honest, at this point, the metric is more descriptive than predictive, but that doesn’t make it any less interesting in my opinion. Here are how recent Heisman-winning quarterbacks faired in this metric in their trophy-claiming campaign.

Robert Griffin III (2011) – 65.4%

Johnny Manziel (2012) – 70.5%

Jameis Winston (2013) – 58.8%

Marcus Mariota (2014) – 63.7%

Obviously none of the players included in this week’s leaderboard is in the Heisman conversation (or on a team good enough to get them the national spotlight) but it’s something to keep an eye on. For what it’s worth, TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin is at 65.2% so far.

Running backs of the week

Kalif Phillips, Charlotte, 80.1% of team’s offensive yards

165 rush yards vs Florida Atlantic

Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 63.5%

300 rush yards, 3 rush TD, 4 rec. 45 rec. yards vs Fresno State

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 59.1%

244 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 1 rec., 7 rec. yards @ Syracuse

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 50.0%

206 rush yards, 1 rec., 38 rec. yards, 59 ret. yards @ Oregon State

Dwayne Washington, Washington, 49.4%

109 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 3 rec., 19 rec. yards vs Cal

Tony Pittman, Marshall, 48.7%

129 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 1 rec., 6 rec. yards @ Kent State

James Butler, Nevada, 46.7%

177 rush yards, 1 rush TD @ Buffalo

Greg Howell, Florida Atlantic, 44.6%

56 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 1 rec., 19 rec. yards @ Charlotte

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 44.2%

56 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 4 rec., 51 rec. yards @ Penn State

Kenneth Dixon, Louisiana Tech, 40.7%

169 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 1 rec., 23 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs FIU

More on Leonard Fournette in a moment, but how about SJSU’s Tyler Ervin and SDSU’s Donnel Pumphrey? Both backs are making their second consecutive appearance on this list and have been prolific undersized workhorses… And shoutout to Christian McCaffrey for being the #4 workhorse RB of the week while also contributing 59 return yards in the Cardinal’s road victory over Oregon State.

RB Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Offensive Yards

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 51.9%

Aaron Jones, UTEP, 51.0%

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 45.7%

Jahad Thomas, Temple, 44.6%

Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 43.4%

Devontae Booker, Utah, 39.2%

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 38.1%

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 38.0%

Demario Richard, Arizona State, 35.6%

Jordan Howard, Indiana, 35.6%

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 35.6%

Leonard Fournette has accounted for 51.9% of LSU’s offense so far. By comparison, the last two running backs to win the Heisman accounted for the following: Reggie Bush ’05 (32.7%)  Mark Ingram ’09 (35.3%)… Keep an eye on Indiana RB Jordan Howard, who was a stud at UAB before transfering to the Hoosier program to take over the role vacated by Tevin Coleman. He takes on Ohio State this week in a game that very well might feature the two best draft-eligible RBs in America.

Receivers of the week

Jordan Williams, Ball State, 74.7% of team’s receiving yards

8 receptions, 133 rec. yards, 2 rec. TD @ Northwestern

BJ Johnson, Georgia Southern, 73.2%

4 receptions, 93 rec. yards @ Idaho

Daniel Braverman, Western Michigan, 72.8%

10 receptions, 123 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Ohio State

Drew Morgan, Arkansas, 68.9%

8 receptions, 155 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Texas A&M

DeAndre Ball, Army, 68.4%

2 receptions, 67 rec. yards @ Eastern Michigan

Ricky Jeune, Georgia Tech, 63.6%

4 receptions, 91 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Duke

Carlos Wiggins, New Mexico, 59.8%

1 reception, 64 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Wyoming

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 58.1%

8 receptions, 165 rec. yards, 2 rec. TD vs Georgia Southern

KeeSean Johnson, Fresno State, 56.6%

7 receptions, 90 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ SJSU

Quinton Pedroza, Hawaii, 55.8%

10 receptions, 134 rec. yards, 0 rec. TD @ WIsconsin

On a weekend when two of my absolute favorite WR prospects, (Tajae Sharpe and Corey Davis, both from the MAC) got their time in the national spotlight, it was Ball State’s Jordan Williams who had the show-stealing performance. He’s not quite Tajae or Corey, but he’s the biggest of the trio and has enjoyed a rock-solid career… Shoutout to Arkansas WR Drew Morgan who came through with a huge game in the absence of top target Keon Hatcher.

WR Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Receiving Yards

Jamir Tillman, Navy, 65.5%

Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh, 55.5%

Dameon Gamblin, New Mexico, 51.2%

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 50.7%

BJ Johnson, Georgia Southern, 50.4%

Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 48.3%

Jordan Villamin, Oregon State, 46.6%

Will Fuller, Notre Dame, 46.0%

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 45.7%

Bryan Holmes, Troy, 45.7%

Say hello to Oregon State WR Jordan Villamin, who is a new arrival on this leaderboard. The 6’5 230lb redshirt sophomore (20 years old) is starting to look a lot like a Mike Evans-ish prospect. If you can add him now in a devy league, I would. The kid’s stock is going to skyrocket as the country wakes up to him… And when I say “wake up”, I mean that literally; many of Oregon State’s games finish well after midnight on the east coast.

Tight Ends of the week

Matt Weiser, Buffalo, 38.8% of team’s receiving yards

10 receptions, 131 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Nevada

Ryan Yurachek, Marshall, 38.4%

4 receptions, 58 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Kent State

Joshua Perkins, Washington, 36.2%

5 receptions, 55 rec. yards vs Cal

Ethan Wolf, Tennessee, 33.3%

4 receptions, 55 rec. yards @ Florida

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 32.8%

5 receptions, 84 rec. yards, 2 rec. TD, 2 rushes, 28 rush yards @ South Alabama

Austin Hooper, Stanford, 30.7%

2 receptions, 50 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Oregon State

Steven Scheu, Vanderbilt, 29.4%

5 receptions, 57 rec. yards @ Ole Miss

Hayden Plinke, UTEP, 29.1%

4 receptions, 80 rec. yards vs Incarnate Word

Cam Serigne, Wake Forest, 27.3%

5 receptions, 72 rec. yards, 1 pass attempt vs Indiana

Bucky Hodges, Virginia Tech, 26.0%

5 receptions, 73 rec. yards @ ECU

Honestly, I don’t know very much about this crew except for Hodges and Serigne. The one name that stands out though is Matt Weiser. For one, college tight ends almost never catch 10 passes in a game unless their name is Jace Amaro or Dennis Pitta. Also, homie is 6’5 255lbs, so there’s some meat on those bones.

TE Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Receiving Yards

Gerald Everett, South Alabama, 31.1%

David Morgan II, UTSA, 26.2%

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 25.6%

Ben McCord, Central Michigan, 23.9%

Jake Butt, Michigan, 22.3%

Tyler Higbee, WKU, 22.2%

C.J. Conrad, Kentucky, 22.1%

Hayden Plinke, UTEP, 21.3%

Jerell Adams, South Carolina, 21.0%

Chris Loving, North Texas, 20.9%

If there’s an early front runner to be my top-rated TE for the 2016 draft, it’s Jake Butt. Under Harbaugh, Stanford churned out a series of solid NFL prospects and Harbaugh now appears to be working the same mojo on Michigan’s TE. Listed at 6’6 248lbs, Butt has a strong combination of production, size and pro-style experience…Jaylen Samuels interested me at first, but then I realized he’s only 5’11 and is more of an H-back.

Special Teams Studs of the week

Olamide Zaccheaus, RB, Virginia, 231 return yards vs Boise

J.D. McKissic, WR, Arkansas State, 211 @ Toledo

Brisly Estime, WR, Syracuse, 202 vs LSU

Byron Marshall, WR, Oregon, 178 vs Utah

DeAndre Reaves, WR, Marshall, 170 @ Kent State

Austin Waller, RB, Rice, 140 @ Baylor

Daje Johnson, WR, Texas, 137 vs Oklahoma State

Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State, 137 @ Penn State

Jae’Lon Oglesby, RB, Memphis, 132 vs Cincinnati

Aregeros Turner, WR, Northern Illinois, 117 @ BC

Earlier this year at Rotoviz I wrote about the hidden value of special teams stats for prospects, so I like to monitor these performances.

Special Teams Leaders – Seasonal Top 10

Janarion Grant, WR, Rutgers, 109 return yards/game, 3 return TD

Brisly Estime, WR, Syracuse, 109 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

J.D. McKissic, WR, Arkansas State, 102 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

Byron Marshall, WR, Oregon, 96 ret. yds/gm

Kylen Towner, WR, WKU, 90 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

Rashaad Penny, RB, SDSU, 90 ret. yds/gm, 2 ret. TD

Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M, 90 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

Brett Winnegan, RB, UTSA, 89 ret. yds/gm

Daje Johnson, WR, Texas, 89 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

Devin Fuller, WR, UCLA, 85 ret. yds/gm

If there’s one name here that I’m really high on (besides Christian Kirk) it is Oregon’s Byron Marshall, who I think could be a Randall Cobb-ish, multi-threat prospect.

Defensive Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Total Tackles

Kentrell Brothers, LB, Missouri, 18.8% of total team tackles

Blake Martinez, ILB, Stanford, 18.7%

Steve Longa, LB, Rutgers, 16.4%

Anthony Walker, LB, Northwestern, 16.1%

Elandon Roberts, ILB, Houston, 16.1%

Skai Moore, LB, South Carolina, 15.9%

Christian Tago, LB, San Jose State, 15.4%

Kavon Frazier, DB, Central Michigan, 15.3%

Jalen Reeves-Maybin, LB, Tennessee, 15.2%

Nick Vigil, LB, Utah State, 15.1%

If you’re looking for a reference point here, Luke Kuechly has the TWO best seasons in my IDP database for this metric going back to 2005. In his final season he tallied 22% and in his second-to-last season he accounted for 20.7%. Anything north of 17% should be held in very high regard… Kavon Frazier is the only defensive back on this list.

Defensive Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Tackles for Loss

Ben Goodman Jr., DE, Kansas, 56.3% of team’s tackles for loss

Darius Latham, DT, Indiana, 41.7%

Jerrian Roberts, DE, North Texas, 41.7%

Woody Baron, DT, Virginia Tech, 38.9%

Bernard Dawson, DE, Georgia Southern, 37.5%

Anthony Walker, LB, Northwestern, 33.3%

Jon Schobert, OLB, Wisconsin, 32.8%

Trevon Coley, DT, Florida Atlantic, 31.6%

Nick Gilbo, LB, Buffalo, 30.6%

Alvin Jones, LB, UTEP, 30.0%

Alonzo McGee, LB, Georgia State, 30.0%

Quinton Bradley, DE, Idaho, 30.0%

Dominique Tovell, LB, Louisiana-Lafayette, 30.0%

If you’re looking for a flag bearer here, look at Aaron Donald, who accounted for 33.1% of Pitt’s tackles for loss in his final season. Anything above 25% is quite good, which all of these guys are now, but expect them to come back to earth as the sample size grows… Note that Indiana’s Darius Latham has been suspended for this weekend’s game against Ohio State, which is a killer for that D… Also, Anthony Walker from Northwestern is the only player to appear on both the tackles and tackles-for-loss leaderboards.

Defensive Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Passes Broken Up

Latrell Gibbs, DB, Appalachian State, 75% of team’s PBU

Tyree Simmons, DB, Colorado State, 70%

Mike Stevens, CB, NC State, CB, 66.7%

Heath Harding, CB, Miami OH, 66.7%

D.J. May, LB, Wyoming, 60%

Nick Nelson, DB, Hawaii, 57.1%

Jalen Davis, CB, Utah State, 50%

Anthony Makransky, DB, Wyoming, 50%

Jeremiah Harris, DL, Eastern Michigan, 50%

Brian Peavy, DB, Iowa State, 50%

Avonte Maddox, DB, Pittsburgh, 50%

Kevin Vaccaro, S, Texas, 50%

Lance Austin, DB, Georgia Tech, 50%

Anything above 35% is really strong. Again, expect regression here. Oh, and say hi to another Texas Vaccaro.

Questions

  1. Did you like seeing the defensive metrics, or are those overkill?
  2. I heard some feedback that the old layout was tough to read. Is this new wordpress theme better?
  3. Would you like access to the data set that helped generate this article? If so, you could email me at THECFX at GMAIL dot COM, or I could just set up a link with a free download. Let me know.

The College Football Market Share Report – Week 3 recap

Welcome to the College Football Market Share Report, where each week I’ll be running through the players who are shouldering an exceptional percentage of their team’s offense.

In the past, my prospect analysis has typically waited until after the season to get going, but by tracking these metrics on a weekly basis in season we can more easily identify exceptional talents before everyone else does.

Note that the commentary below will highlight the most recent week’s top performers as well as seasonal leaders. Also, since this is somewhat of an experimental article, I’m going to ask for your feedback on how this should evolve moving forward, so feel free to leave a comment.

As this is somewhat dense with numbers, I’d recommend skimming through the names and then checking out the blurbs at the bottom of each section.

Quarterbacks of the week

Shuler Bentley, Old Dominion, 93.9% of team’s offensive yards

  • 151 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, -12 rush yards vs NC State

Blake Frohnapfel, UMass, 87.4%

  • 393 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, -10 rush yards vs Temple

Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky, 87.1%

  • 484 pass yards, 3 TD, 2 INT, 11 rush yards @ Indiana

P.J. Walker, Temple, 83.6%

  • 391 pass yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, -8 rush yards @ UMass

Chad Kelly, Ole Miss, 83.6%

  • 341 pass yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 21 rush yards @ Alabama

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 83.6%

  • 443 pass yards, 4 TD, 0 INT, 41 rush yards vs Memphis

Jake Browning, Washington, 83%

  • 368 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, -1 rush yards vs Utah State

C.J. Beathard, Iowa, 81.8%

  • 258 pass yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 39 rush yards vs Pitt

Jerrod Heard, Texas, 81.1%

  • 364 pass yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 163 rush yards vs California

Tyler Jones, Texas State, 79.5%

  • 310 pass yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 160 rush yards vs Southern Miss

There’s a lot to talk about here. Texas’ Jerrod Heard went bananas on national TV against Cal and drew comparisons to Vince Young… Chad “Swag” Kelly took Ole Miss on the road and defeated Alabama. No small feat. The Rebels are now the #3 ranked team in the country… It looks like Washington coach Chris Petersen (formerly at Boise) has his new Kellen Moore. Somewhat undersized freshman Jake Browning has been great so far… Finally, shoutout to Tyler Jones from Texas State, who Benjamin Allbright and I were discussing on Twitter late last week and then Jones proceeds to put up 470 yards of total offense.  Maybe undersized, maybe from a small conference, but maybe really awesome? Time will tell.

QB Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Offensive Yards

Luke Falk, Washington State, 80.5%

Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky, 78.8%

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 77.5%

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 77.0%

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 76.8%

Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut, 75.5%

Johnny McCrary, Vanderbilt, 75.1%

Matt Linehan, Idaho, 74.1%

Matt Davis, SMU, 73.4%

Blake Kemp, East Carolina, 73.2%

Nothing too surprising here – three quarterbacks from pass-happy teams leading the way – but this is probably a helpful list to keep in mind for finding undervalued DFS quarterbacks.

Running backs of the week

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 58.1% of team’s offensive yards

  • 15 rush yards, 71 receiving yards, 1 rec. TD vs NC State

Demario Richard, Arizona State, 56.8%

  • 104 rush yards, 4 receptions, 151 receiving yards, 2 rec. TD vs New Mexico

Devontae Booker, Utah, 55.8%

  • 156 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 5 receptions, 56 receiving yards @ Fresno

Paul Perkins, UCLA, 54.5%

  • 219 rush yards, 1 rush TD vs BYU

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 51.5%

  • 102 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 5 receptions, 55 receiving yards vs South Alabama

Justin Jackson, Northwestern, 50.9%

  • 120 rush yards, 2 receptions, 18 receiving yards @ Duke

Nick Holley, Kent State, 50%

  • 58 rush yards, 3 receptions, 13 receiving yards @ Minnesota

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 48.9%

  • 228 rush yards, 3 rush TD, 1 reception, 9 rec. yards vs Auburn

Tyler Ervin, SJSU, 48.6%

  • 93 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 6 receptions, 30 rec. yards @ Oregon State

Joel Bouagnon, Northern Illinois, 45.3%

  • 78 rush yards, 3 receptions, 8 rec. yards @ Ohio State

On a team with national championship aspirations, but lead by a freshman quarterback, UCLA’s Paul Perkins is quietly putting together a fantastic season. If he can continue to take the load of Josh Rosen and the Bruins win the Pac-12 South (two BIG ifs) I would think Perkins would be a Heisman finalist. And he’s not just a one-hit wonder; he balled in 2014 too.

RB Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Offensive Yards

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 51.3%

Aaron Jones, UTEP, 51.0%

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 48.2%

Devontae Booker, Utah, 45.1%

Jahad Thomas, Temple, 44.6%

Kareem Hunt, Toledo, 41.7%

Devon Johnson, Marshall, 38.4%

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 38.0%

Brian Hill, Wyoming, 37.5%

Demario Richard, Arizona State, 37.5%

Maybe you’ve never heard of Ray Lawry (2017 eligible), but it’s time to start paying attention. The 5’11 200b sophomore is a one-man wrecking crew for the Monarchs… speaking of which, how about Leonard Fournette? In consecutive weeks he has torn apart SEC defenses and in the process seen his Heisman odds go from 13-1 on September 8 (eighth-best odds) to 3.5-1 this week, which makes him the Vegas favorite to win the award.

Receivers of the week

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 63.7% of team’s receiving yards

  • 8 receptions, 193 rec. yards, 2 rec. TD vs Rice

Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 63.2%

  • 8 receptions, 156 rec. yards, 3 rec. TD vs Air Force

DaeSean Hamilton, Penn State, 61.0%

  • 5 receptions, 86 rec. yards vs Rutgers

Trent Sherfield, Vanderbilt, 60.9%

  • 16 receptions, 240 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Austin Peay

Gerald Everett, South Alabama, 60.7%

  • 8 receptions, 164 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ SDSU

Roger Lewis, Bowling Green, 58.9%

  • 7 receptions, 261 rec. yards, 3 rec. TD vs Memphis

Tyler Boyd, Pitt, 57.7%

  • 10 receptions, 131 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD, 7 rush yards @ Iowa

DeAndre Bell, Army, 57.4%

  • 1 reception, 31 rec. yards vs Wake Forest

JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC, 56.3%

  • 8 receptions, 153 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Stanford

DeBrandon Sanders, Navy, 56.1%

  • 1 reception, 23 rec. yards, 1 rush, 20 rush yards vs East Carolina

Jordan Payton, UCLA, 55.7%

  • 4 receptions, 59 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs BYU

Even if Air Force isn’t exactly a defensive juggernaut, Aaron Burbridge’s performance shouldn’t be discounted. He’s strung together three consecutive 100+ yard games to start the season, is catching passes from Connor Cook and has the size to intrigue NFL types. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Cody Latimer-esque ascent over the next six months. Just something to monitor.

WR Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Receiving Yards

Jamir Tillman, Navy, 72.2%

Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh, 55.5%

Chris Godwin, Penn State, 55.1%

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 54.1%

Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 53.8%

Will Fuller, Notre Dame, 52.1%

Dameon Gamblin, New Mexico, 51.2%

Tanner Gentry, Wyoming, 49.1%

Devin Scott, Louisiana-Lafayette, 48.1%

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 47.4%

Should I exclude military school players from this list, since their likelihood of NFL relevance is so unlikely?… Tyler Boyd is the most noteworthy player here for several reasons. First, he’s putting together an awesome season as the obvious focal point of the offense and still nobody can stop him. Also, his birth year had been previously reported as 1993, but now the official Pitt website lists it as 1994. If it’s true that he’s a year younger than we originally thought – a 20 year old freshman in 2013 – his dynasty stock gets a significant boost on several fronts… And say what’s up to Will Fuller, who is smallish, but is tearing it up for the Irish.

Special Teams Studs of the week

Earlier this year at Rotoviz I detailed the hidden value of special teams stats in prospect analysis. Keeping with that theme, here’s a look at the top players making an impact in the return game.

Devin Fuller, UCLA, 194 return yards vs BYU

Ryan Switzer, UNC, 168 return yards, 1 ret. TD vs Illinois

Shon Cardon, South Carolina, 162 return yards @ Georgia

Johnny Holton, Cincinnati, 125 return yards @ Miami OH

DJ May, Wyoming, 122 return yards @ Washington State

Brandon Smith, Texas State, 122 return yards vs Southern Miss

Diontae Johnson, Toledo, 119 return yards vs Iowa State

Adoree’ Jackson, USC, 118 return yards vs Stanford

Solomon Vault, Northwestern, 118 return yards, 1 ret. TD @ Duke

Brett Winnegan, UTSA, 112 return yards   @ Oklahoma State

If there’s a Wes Welker-type prospect (undersized, premium special teamer) on this list it’s Ryan Switzer. In his debut campaign in 2013 he averaged more than 20 yards per punt return and is back on a similar path this year after being kept somewhat under wraps last year. Also, randomly, he’s thrown two passes in his career – indicating a high level of trust by the coaching staff – both of which went for touchdowns.

Special Teams Leaders – Seasonal Top 10

Janarion Grant, Rutgers, 129.3 return yards/g

Kylen Towner, WKU, 107.0

Autrey Golden, UTEP, 96.6

Christian Kirk, Texas A&M, 93.7

Brett Winnegan, UTSA, 93.0

De’Chavon “Gump” Hayes, Arizona State, 87.5

Jeremiah Bryson, MTSU, 84.3

Diontae Johnson, Toledo, 82.0

Devin Fuller, UCLA, 79.7

Eric Hawkins, Arkansas, 79.5

One player on this list who made a huge splash on opening weekend and who I’ve been meaning to write about is Texas A&M freshman Christian Kirk. He’s a solid 5’11 200lbs, doesn’t turn 19 until November and is already balling. In addition to his special teams contributions, he’s also contributing on offense. At this point, he’s probably the most valuable 2015 freshman devy prospect in the game.

QUESTIONS

  1. For wide receivers, I like “market share of receiving yards” since we’ve used those for a while and people generally understand the continuum, but what did you think about the QB and RB breakdowns being based on market share of offense? Is there something else you’d rather see?
  2. Should I keep service academy players out of this list since they almost never end up playing in the NFL and part of this exercise is to help in prospect identification?
  3. Would you like access to the data set that helped generate this article? If so, you could email me at THECFX at GMAIL dot COM, or I could just set up a link with a free download. Let me know.