The College Football Market Share Report – Season Recap

That’s all, folks! The 2015-16 College Football season is officially over. It’s almost time to turn our attention to draft season, but before we do here is one final Market Share Report.

For this edition I’ve made a few tweaks, including a section for best past-catching running backs. Also, for anyone who I know is entering the 2016 NFL Draft, I’ve put an asterisk by their name.

How you might want to interact with this article:
1) Skim the dense parts and read the summaries at the end of each section
2) Find rockstar performances and focus on those in your film-watching endeavors
3) Leave a comment because comments are fun

With this being the last article in this series, I ask that, if you enjoyed this publication throughout the season, you consider supporting my work via a paypal donation.

Quarterbacks of Bowl Season

Sean Maguire, Florida State, 92.7% of team’s offensive yards

  • 22-44, 392 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT vs Houston

Patrick Mahomes II, Texas Tech, 85.7%

  • 28-56, 370 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT vs LSU

Lamar Jackson, Louisville, 84.8%

  • 12-26, 227 yards, 2 TD, 226 rush yards, 2 rush TD vs Texas A&M

Tanner Mangum, BYU, 82.4%

  • 25-56, 315 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT, 1 rush TD vs Utah

*Mike Bercovici, Arizona State, 82.3%

  • 29-52, 418 yards, 4 TD, 10 rush yards vs WVU

*Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State, 82.3%

  • 14-29, 208 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT vs SJSU

Skyler Howard, West Virginia, 82.1%

  • 28-51, 532 yards, 5 TD, 2 INT, 23 rush yards vs ASU

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss, 81.9%

  • 25-38, 331 yards, 2 TD vs Washington

Thomas Woodson, Akron, 81.2%

  • 14-29, 168 yards, 1 INT, 47 rush yards, rec. TD vs Utah St

Josh Rosen, UCLA, 79.8%

  • 26-40, 319 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT vs Nebraska

ACC fans might want to take note of Louisville and QB Lamar Jackson. He posted massive dual-threat production in the bowl game and is just a sophomore next year. Bobby Petrino will be in his third season, which was a fruitful point during his first stay at Louisville and at Arkansas; he lost no more than three games in either of those “year threes”… it might be fun to go back and watch that ASU-WVU bowl game, considering it had two quarterbacks going absolutely bonkers in it.

 

Seasonal QB Leaders

Luke Falk, Washington State, 76.8% of team’s offensive yards

  • 6’4, 205lbs, Sophomore

*Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State, 75.9%

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 74.6%

  • 6’3, 227lbs, Junior

*Dak Prescott, Mississippi State, 73.2%

  • 6’2, 230lbs, Senior

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 71.8%

  • 6’0, 211lbs, Freshman

*Jeff Driskel, Louisiana Tech, 69.4%

  • 6’4, 231lbs, Senior

Riley Neal, Ball State, 68.7%

  • 6’5, 217lbs, Freshman

*Jared Goff, Cal, 68.6%

  • 6’2, 215lbs, Junior

Brent Stockstill, MTSU, 68%

  • 6’0, 200lbs, Freshman

Patrick Mahomes II, Texas Tech, 67.9%

  • 6’3, 219lbs, Sophomore

Alex McGough, FIU, 67.5%

  • 6’3, 218lbs, Sophomore

Deshaun Watson, Clemson, 67.5%

  • 6’2, 210lbs, Sophomore

Chad Kelly, Ole Miss, 67.5%

  • 6’2, 215lbs, Junior

It’s fun to see Jared Goff end the year with a bang and climb so high up this list. An early declaration, he’s almost certain to go in the first round. Just for fun, I thought I’d check on how first-round quarterbacks from the last two years fared in terms of final-seasons market share of offense:

  • Winston – 67.8%
  • Mariota – 64.0%
  • Bortles – 67.1%
  • Manziel – 69.6%
  • Bridgewater – 67.6%

The average is 67.2%, which is slightly below Goff’s mark (68.9%), and he did himself no favors with his rushing ability… As later-round prospects, it will be fun to see where Dak Prescott and Jeff Driskel end up going… Say hello to Deshaun Watson, Chad Kelly and Patrick Mahomes, who should be among college football’s most exciting quarterbacks in 2016.

 

Running Backs of Bowl Season

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 64.6%

  • 18 carries, 172 yards, 105 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD, 91 ret. yards, 1 ret. TD vs Iowa

Joe Williams, Utah, 57.4%

  • 25 carries, 91 yards, 2 TD, 22 rec. yards vs BYU

James Butler, Nevada, 54.8%

  • 24 carries, 189 yards, 2 TD vs Colorado St

Romello Ross, Central Michigan, 51.4%

  • 19 carries, 100 yards, 1 TD, 28 rec. yards vs Minnesota

Joel Bouagnon, Northern Illinois, 48.5%

  • 8 carries, 16 yards vs Boise

*Tyler Ervin, SJSU, 45.1%

  • 30 carries, 132 yards, 98 return yards vs Georgia State

Johnny Jefferson, Baylor, 42.7%

  • 23 carries, 299 yards, 3 TD, 24 pass yards vs UNC

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 40.1%

  • 29 carries, 212 yards, 4 TD, 44 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Texas Tech

Donnel Pumphrey, SDSU, 39.9%

  • 25 carries, 99 yards, 1 TD, 19 rec. yards, 16 pass yards vs Cincinnati

Marcus Cox, Appalachian State, 37.9%

  • 24 carries, 162 yards, 1 TD vs Ohio

Bowl season and pretty much everything else for the last two months (except the Heisman) has belonged to Christian McCaffrey. If there’s a single bowl season performance worth going back to re-watch, it’s him in the Rose Bowl. I know this is going to sound absurd, and there will almost certainly be “white running back” stereotypes to overcome, but I think he’s a borderline Reggie Bush caliber prospect… Johnny Jefferson might be the only player in McCaffrey’s tier of bowl-studliness. When looking at his bowl game and last regular season game, he rushed for 457 yards on 46 carries. Bye bye, Shock Linwood. Heeeeeeereeee’s Johnny!… Keep an eye on Marcus Cox next year for App State. That program is on the rise and he’s their best offensive player.

 

Seasonal RB Leaders

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 44.3% of team’s offensive yards

  • 6’0, 201lbs, Sophomore

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 42%

  • 6’1, 230lbs, Sophomore

*Devontae Booker, Utah, 41.2%

  • 6’1, 212lbs, Senior

Brian Hill, Wyoming, 40.7%

  • 6’1, 211lbs, Sophomore

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 39.7%

  • 5’9, 180lbs, Junior

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 39.2%

  • 5’11, 202lbs, Sophomore

Larry Rose III, New Mexico State, 37.2%

  • 5’11, 184lbs, Sophomore

Justin Jackson, Northwestern, 37.2%

  • 5’11, 190lbs, Sophomore

*Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 36.8%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Senior

*Derrick Henry, Alabama, 36.1%

  • 6’3, 242lbs, Junior

*Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State, 35.9%

  • 6’0, 225lbs, Junior

What a remarkable year for college running backs. Not sure how else to say it. And even though  Zeke, Derrick and Devontae are off to the NFL, next year will be loaded to with many of the names on this list returning and a few others like Royce Freeman, Marlon Mack, Saquon Barkley and more to sprinkle in… And for the record, I’m still not over the fact that Derrick Henry won the Heisman, depsite accounting for roughly eight percent less of his offense than McCaffrey did on similarly outstanding teams.

 

Seasonal RB Leaders – Pass Catching

Taquan Mizzell, Virginia, 25.2% of team’s receiving yards

  • 5’10, 195lb, Junior

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 21.8%

  • 6’0, 201lbs, Sophomore

*Jalin Marshall, Ohio State, 21.3%

  • 5’11, 205lbs, RS-Sophomore

Ervin Phillips, Syracuse, 21.3%

  • 5’11, 181lbs, Sophomore

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 20.9%

  • 5’9, 180lbs, Junior

Arkeel Newsome, Connecticut, 19.3%

  • 5’7, 182lbs, Sophomore

Clinton Lynch, Georgia Tech, 18.7%

  • 6’0, 181lbs, Freshman

*Dwayne Washington, Washington, 17.5%

  • 6’2, 226lbs, Junior

Papi White, Ohio, 17.5%

  • 5’9, 166lbs, Freshman

Raekwon James, Kent State, 17.3%

  • 5’9, 187lbs, Freshman

Ben Lewis, Syracuse, 16.5%

  • 6’2, 213lbs, Junior

*Devontae Booker, Utah, 15.5%

  • 5’11, 212lbs, Senior

This is a new category and I’m not entirely sure how relevant it is, but I thought it was interesting. Two of the more head-scratching NFL Draft early entries – Marshall and Washington – show up on this list, which could help explain their entries despite their substandard rushing production… On the other hand, Devontae Booker is a badass on all fronts… And shoutout to Donnel Pumphrey, who appears on both the overall running back leaderboard and the pass-catching back leaderboard. He’s so tiny, but so talented.

Service academy footnotes: Timothy McVey (Air Force, 22.2%), John Trainor (Army, 20.1%), DeBrandon Sanders (Navy, 19.5%)

 

Wide Receivers of Bowl Season

*Malcolm Mitchell, Georgia, 70.8% of team’s receiving yards

  • 5 rec., 114 yards, 1 TD vs Penn State

Isaiah Ford, Virginia Tech, 66%

  • 12 rec., 227 yards, 1 TD, 23 rush yards vs Tulsa

Josh Reynolds, Texas A&M, 57.7%

  • 11 rec., 177 yards vs Louisville

Jerico Richardson, Nevada, 56.8%

  • 4 rec,. 42 yards vs Colorado St

*Cayleb Jones, Arizona, 55.3%

  • 4 rec., 182 yards, 1 TD vs New Mexico

Corey Davis, Western Michigan, 55.3%

  • 8 rec., 183 yards, 1 TD vs MTSU

Justin Holmes, SJSU, 53.9%

  • 3 rec., 48 yards vs Georgia State

*Mike Thomas, Southern Miss, 53.8%

  • 9 rec., 190 yards, 2 TD, 34 ret. yards vs Washington

Andrew Pratt, Akron, 51.6%

  • 9 rec., 94 yards vs Utah State

Travis Rudolph, Florida State, 50.6%

  • 7 rec., 201 yards, 1 TD vs Houston

Good on Malcolm Mitchell to finish an adventurous career with an epic performance in his bowl game. I’m not that high on him as a prospect (for now), but going over 100 yards and 70% of his team’s passing offense is ridiculous… DEVY OWNERS – keep an eye on Isaiah Ford. He’s just 19 years old, went nuts in his bowl game and accounted for nearly 40% of his team’s receiving yards on the year. That is ELITE… Finally, be aware of Mike Thomas from Southern Miss. Not to be confused with Mike Thomas from Ohio State or a million other Mike Thomases. This kid can play and is almost certainly a top 10 receiver in this draft for me. Much more to come on him.

 

Seasonal WR Leaders

*Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 47.2% of team’s receiving yards

  • 5’10, 175lbs, Senior

*Leonte Carroo, Rutgers, 43.6% of receiving yards

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Tanner Gentry, Wyoming, 43.6%

  • 6’2, 201lbs, Junior

*Tajae Sharpe, UMass, 42.7%

  • 6’3, 188lbs, Senior

BJ Johnson, Georgia Southern, 41.8%

  • 6’1, 212lbs, Junior

Isaiah Ford, Virginia Tech, 39.6%

  • 6’2, 188lbs, Sophomore

Chris Godwin, Penn State, 39.5%

  • 6’1, 208lbs, Sophomore

*Tyler Boyd, Pitt, 39.5%

  • 6’2, 200lbs, Junior

*Pharoh Cooper, South Carolina, 39.1%

  • 5’11, 207lbs, Junior

Kenny Golladay, Northern Illinois, 38.7%

  • 6’4, 200lbs, Junior

JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC, 38.5%

  • 6’2, 215lbs, Sophomore

Corey Davis (my love), Western Michigan, 38.4%

  • 6’3, 205lbs, Junior

*Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 38.4%

  • 6’1, 208lbs, Senior

Exciting to see that this leaderboard is peppered with players who will be in the 2016 NFL Draft. I’ve already written about a number of them at RotoViz and plan to hit more in the coming weeks:

Looking ahead to 2016, Ford, Godwin, Juju and Corey Davis are among the top returning receiver prospects… About Dezmon Epps, he only played six games this year, and he’s miniature, but he was really good in those games, so I cheated a bit on my games played requirement and included him for draft awareness purposes.

Service Academy footnotes: Jamir Tillman (51.3%, Navy), Edgar Poe (44.6%, Army)

Jerome Lane footnotes: 32% of Akron’s yards

 

Tight Ends of Bowl Season

Cole Hikutini, Louisville, 45.4% of team’s receiving yards

  • 3 rec., 103 yards vs NC State

O.J. Howard, Alabama, 45% (2 games)

  • 8 rec., 267 yards, 2 TD vs Michigan St, Clemson

Pharoah McKever, NC State, 38.3%

  • 1 rec., 82 yards, 1 TD vs Mississippi State

Alex Ellis, Tennessee, 38.1%

  • 3 rec., 74 yards vs Northwestern

Ari Werts, Georgia State, 30.3%

  • 3 rec., 63 yards vs SJSU

*Hunter Henry, Arkansas, 29.2%

  • 5 rec., 92 yards vs Kansas State

*Ben McCord, Central Michigan, 29%

  • 2 rec., 42 yards vs Minnesota

Alec Bloom, UConn, 27.9%

  • 2 rec., 24 yards vs Marshall

Evan Engram, Ole Miss, 27.7%

  • 6 rec., 96 yards vs Oklahoma State

Barrett Burns, Appalachian St, 25.8%

  • 3 rec., 32 yards, 2 TD vs Ohio

After years of hearing about O.J. Howard and not seeing any production, it was exciting to see him blow up in the National Championship game. Paging Lane Kiffin, please use him more next year… Hunter Henry is a name you need to know, if you don’t already. Probably my top TE prospect for the 2016 Draft.

 

Seasonal TE Leaders

*David Morgan II, UTSA, 24.4% of team’s receiving yards

  • 6’4, 260lbs, Senior

Gerald Everett, South Alabama, 24%

  • 6’4, 225lbs, Junior

*Rodney Mills, UMass, 21.9%

  • 6’1, 205lbs, Senior

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 21.8%

  • 5’11, 236lbs, Sophomore

O.J. Howard, Alabama, 21.2%

  • 6’6, 242lbs, Junior

*Dan Vitale, Northwestern, 21.2%

  • 6’2, 235lbs, Senior

*Hunter Henry, Arkansas, 21.2%

  • 6’5, 253lbs, Junior

Jake Butt, Michigan, 21.2%

  • 6’6, 248lbs, Junior

Billy Freeman, SJSU, 21.2%

  • 6’3, 232lbs, Junior

*Matt Weiser, Buffalo, 20.9%

  • 6’5, 255lbs, Senior

Cam Serigne, Wake Forest, 20.5%

  • 6’3, 245lbs, R-Sophomore

Brandon Lingen, Minnesota, 20.2%

  • 6’5, 247lbs, Sophomore

The 2016 TE class looks like it’s going to take a hit by not having Serigne, Hodges, Butt and Engram not declare, but I’m intrigued by what David Morgan II and, to a lesser extent, Matt Weiser might have to offer.

 

Seasonal Special Teams Leaders

Janarion Grant, Rutgers, WR, 91.3% of team’s return yards

  • 5’11, 170lbs, Junior

Brisly Estime, Syracuse, WR, 89.6%

  • 5’9, 178lbs, Junior

*Derek Keaton, Georgia Southern, WR, 89.6%

  • 5’11, 185lbs, Senior

Kylen Towner, Western Kentucky, WR, 89.4%

  • 5’8, 175lbs, Sophomore

*Teddy Ruben, Troy, WR, 87.3%

  • 5’7, 161lbs, Senior

KaVontae Turpin, TCU, WR, 86.7%

  • 5’9, 152lbs, Freshman

*Deandre Reaves, Marshall, WR, 86.2%

  • 5’10, 179lbs, Senior

*Tyler Ervin, SJSU, RB, 85.2%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Senior

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, RB, 84.6%

  • 6’0, 201lbs, Sophomore

*Jakeem Grant, Texas Tech, WR, 83.6%

  • 5’7, 168lbs, Senior

I’ve written in the past about how special teams contributions are a key to finding hidden value, and I’m curious about how Jakeem Grant will fare in the coming months. He’s pretty dynamic and looked great against LSU in his bowl game.

And, yes, I’m aware that I used the same Christian McCaffrey photo on this article and the last in-season one, but he’s earned it.

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The College Football Market Share Report – Week 7 Recap

Welcome back to the college football market share report. You should know the deal by now, but if not, this is me taking a statistical approach to finding college football’s top workhorses based on their market share of their team’s yards.

How you might want to interact with this article:
1) Skim the dense parts and read the summaries at the end of each section
2) Find rockstar performances and focus on those in your film-watching endeavors
3) Leave a comment so I can make this content even more beneficial to you

Finally, if you are introduced to any new players through this article, and you end up writing about them, please link back to this work. Thanks!

Quarterbacks of the week

Treon Harris, Florida, 89.3% of team’s offensive yards

  • 17 – 32, 271 yards, 2 TD, 20 rush yards @ LSU

Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State, 88.5%

  • 28 – 38, 412 yards, 1 TD, 2 rush TD @ Ball State

Cody Clements, South Alabama, 88.1%

  • 18 – 33, 273 yards, 3 TD, 3 INT vs Arkansas State

Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut, 88.1%

  • 28 – 41, 365 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 100 rush yards, 1 rush TD vs South Florida

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State, 86.6%

  • 30 – 43, 347 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 34 rush yards, 1 rush TD vs La Tech

Deshaun Watson, Clemson, 85%

  • 27 – 41, 420 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT, 32 rush yards, 2 rush TD vs Boston College

Lamar Jackson, Louisville, 83.5%

  • 20 – 35, 307 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 32 rush yards @ Florida State

Trevone Boykin, TCU, 82.1%

  • 27 – 32, 436 yards, 4 TD, 74 rush yards, 1 rush TD @ Iowa State

Mitch Leidner, Minnesota, 82%

  • 26 – 40, 301 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 1 rush TD vs Nebraska

DaMarcus Smith, North Texas, 81.2%

  • 17 – 35, 228 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT, 122 rush yards vs WKU

To the extent that people were worried about Treon Harris being a liability to the previously-undefeated Gators, he held up his end of the bargain at LSU last weekend. If the rest of his team would have averaged more than two yards per carry, the Gators might still be undefeated. If he can play anywhere near as good from here on out, Florida will remain in the national championship hunt… For as much as everyone was on his bandwagon last year, Dak Prescott has been even more impressive. The team is down a little bit, but it’s possible that nobody plays LSU closer than they did (19-21 loss) for the rest of the year… Entering the year as one of the top breakout candidates in the nation, Clemson’s Deshaun Watson has been relatively quiet in leading the Tigers to an undefeated start. After his first real “wow” game last weekend, and with the schedule picking up, I wonder if he doesn’t start building some buzz in the next few weeks… Trevone Boykin is amazing.

Seasonal QB Leaders

Luke Falk, Washington State, 78.7% of team’s offensive yards

  • 6’4, 205lbs, Sophomore

Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State, 76.8%

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut, 76.4%

  • 6’2, 220lbs, Sophomore

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 74.3%

  • 6’0, 211lbs, Freshman

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 73.6%

  • 6’3, 227lbs, Junior

Matt Davis, SMU, 73%

  • 6’0, 212lbs, Junior

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 72.5%

  • 6’0, 219lbs, Senior

Matt Linehan, Idaho, 71.7%

  • 6’3, 214lbs, Sophomore

Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky, 70.7%

  • 6’3, 220lbs, Senior

Chuckie Keeton, Utah State, 69.8%

  • 6’2, 210lbs, Senior

Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma, 69.6%

  • 6’1, 209lbs, Junior

I’m honestly not sure what else to say about this quarterback cohort at this point. If there’s one name on the list that keeps standing out to me, it’s Luke Falk from Wazzu. He’s been outstanding the past two weeks as the Cougars have emerged as a Pac 12 North contender. They get Stanford at home on October 31 and could legitimately win the North with a victory in that contest.

Running Backs of the week

Derrick Henry, Alabama, 64.1% of team’s offensive yards

  • 32 carries, 236 yards, 2 TD, 18 rec. yards @ Texas A&M

Jahad Thomas, Temple, 62%

  • 31 carries, 199 yards, 3 TD, 25 rec. yards vs UCF

Saquon Barkley, Penn State, 61.6%

  • 26 carries, 194 yards @ Ohio State

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 56.1%

  • 25 carries, 243 yards, 4 TD, 4 rec. yards, 122 ret. yards vs UCLA

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 54.9%

  • 20 carries, 152 yards, 1 TD, 55 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ SJSU

Malik Roberson, San Jose State, 54.1%

  • 5 carries, 41 yards, 39 rec. yards vs SDSU

C.J. Jones, UCF, 48.5%

  • 19 carries, 37 yards, 28 rec. yards @ Temple

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 46.1%

  • 31 carries, 180 yards, 2 TD, 15 rec. yards vs Florida

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 43.7%

  • 22 carries, 163 yards, 2 TD, 60 rec. yards vs Louisville

Raekwon James, Kent State, 43.1%

  • 20 carries, 85 yards, 56 rec. yards, 41 ret. yards @ UMass

For as much hype as he gets, this is Derrick Henry’s first truly elite performance of the year. Interestingly, since a strong start in week 1, he’s alternated good games with underwhelming games every week… Penn State freshman Saquon Barkley had a remarkable game against Ohio State. He’s a 220lb, 18 year old who is absolutely ballin’ this year. He should be a target in everyone’s devy leagues… Christian McCaffrey says “can you hear me now?” I’ve written about him before in this space, but his value to the Stanford team cannot be overstated; HE DOES EVERYTHING for them… Leonard Fournette is still awesome, but I made the case on the most recent RotoViz College Football Show that Dalvin Cook is more valuable to his team. Both need to be in New York City for the Heisman ceremony.

Seasonal RB Leaders

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 45.5% of team’s offensive yards

  • 6’1, 230lbs, Sophomore

Jahad Thomas, Temple, 44.6%

  • 5’10, 180lbs, Junior

Devontae Booker, Utah, 42.7%

  • 6’1, 212lbs, Senior

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 41.4%

  • 5’9, 180lbs, Junior

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 40.6%

  • 5’11, 202lbs, Sophomore

Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 40%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Senior

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 38.6%

  • 5’10, 201lbs, Sophomore

Brian Hill, Wyoming, 37.8%

  • 6’1, 211lbs, Sophomore

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 37.6%

  • 6’0, 201lbs, Sophomore

Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State, 35.1%

  • 6’0, 225lbs, Junior

Saquon Barkley (SQBK), Penn State, 34.7%

  • 5’11, 22lbs, Freshman

In this week’s ESPN.com Heisman Watch poll they had Devontae Booker with only one (fifth-place) vote. Fournette, Zeke, Dalvin, Derrick Henry, and McCaffrey were all ahead of him, which I mostly “get”, but I find it reeeaaally hard to make a case that Henry has been more important for his team than Booker. So frustrating that as soon as any pre-hyped Alabama player flashes, everyone runs right back to that… If you want to talk about a dark-horse name, try out Jahad Thomas from Temple. I think there’s a real chance they could run the table, which would include wins against ranked teams Notre Dame and Memphis. If they do, don’t be surprised if Thomas sneaks into the bottom of the final Heisman voting results. October 31 vs Notre Dame is everything for him and that team… Zeke Elliott and Fournette remain the only two college backs to surpass 100 rush yards in every game this season.

Wide Receivers of the week

Chris Godwin, Penn State, 85.8% of team’s receiving yards

  • 3 receptions, 103 yards @ Ohio State

Kody Cook, Kansas State, 84.4%

  • 2 rec., 38 yards, 19 rush yards, 6 pass yards vs Oklahoma

Rodney Adams, South Florida, 63.4%

  • 5 rec., 118 yards, 3 TD @ UConn

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 63.3%

  • 10 rec., 131 yards, 6 ret. yards @ Troy

Zach Pascal, Old Dominion, 62.9%

  • 11 rec., 231 yards, 3 TD, 69 ret. yards vs Charlotte

Ricardo Louis, Auburn, 60.4%

  • 7 rec., 154 yards @ Kentucky

Pharoh Cooper, South Carolina, 58.8%

  • 7 rec., 160 yards, 1 TD, 4 ret. yards vs Vanderbilt

Devon Breaux, Tulane, 58.7%

  • 3 rec., 88 yards vs Houston

Dylan Collie, Hawaii, 57.9%

  • 7 rec., 113 yards, 1 TD @ New Mexico

Malachi Dupre, LSU, 56.9%

  • 4 rec., 115 yards, 2 TD vs Florida

In Auburn’s first game without their overhyped, overaged, dismissed receiver, Ricardo Louis had a phenomenal showing against Kentucky. The 6’2 215lb senior has hardly been a dominant force during his career, but he’s had an interesting mix of rushing and receiving production and could be an interesting name to monitor down the home stretch… Pharoh Cooper is a name more people need to know. With Spurrier out at South Carolina, it wouldn’t surprise me if third-year junior Cooper entered the draft after this season. He’s played five SEC opponents this year and four times has caught at least seven passes for 100+ yards. With rushing and return ability too, he’s a sure-thing top 100 pick in my eyes… If Malachi Dupre can string together a few more 100 yard receiving games for LSU, I’m not sure they’ll lose this season with the way Fournette is mauling in the ground game.

Service Academy footnotes: Edgar Poe (Army, 87.7%)

Seasonal WR Leaders

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 51.2% of team’s receiving yards

  • 5’10, 175lbs, Senior

BJ Johnson, Georgia Southern, 50.4%

  • 6’1, 212lbs, Junior

Daniel Braverman, Western Michigan, 46%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Junior

Pharoh Cooper, South Carolina, 45.3%

  • 5’11, 207lbs, Junior

Leonte Carroo, Rutgers, 45.1%

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 44.3%

  • 5’8, 185lbs, Senior

Tanner Gentry, Wyoming, 43.6%

  • 6’2, 201lbs, Junior

Dameon Gamblin, New Mexico, 43.5%

  • 5’10, 174lbs, Junior

Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh, 42.6%

  • 6’2, 200lbs, Junior

Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 42%

  • 6’1, 208lbs, Senior

Leonte Carroo DGAF about anything. He’s played in four games this year and has three three-touchdown games. He plays Ohio State this weekend… Tyler Boyd, welcome back… Aaron Burbridge vs Michigan’s Jourdan Lewis last weekend was one of the most entertaining college WR-CB matchups I’ve seen in a while. Burbridge now has five 100+ yard efforts in seven games, but has only found the endzone in two contests.

Service Academy footnotes: Jamir Tillman (Navy, 66.5%), Garrett Brown (Air Force, 56.2%)

Jerome Lane (Akron) footnotes: 32.1%

Tight Ends of the week

Rodney Mills, UMass, 56.1% of team’s receiving yards

  • 4 rec., 96 yards vs Kent State

Reece White, New Mexico, 36.9%

  • 3 rec., 72 yards vs Hawaii

Cody Tuttle, Eastern Michigan, 34.1%

  • 8 rec., 60 yards @ Toledo

Steven Scheu, Vanderbilt, 33.3%

  • 6 rec., 59 yards @ South Carolina

Cam Serigne, Wake Forest, 33%

  • 6 rec., 65 yards, 1 TD @ UNC

Austin Hooper, Stanford, 32.1%

  • 3 rec., 42 yards, 1 TD vs UCLA

Alec Bloom, Connecticut, 26.6%

  • 5 rec., 97 yards vs USF

O.J. Howard, Alabama, 25.4%

  • 3 rec., 35 yards @ Texas A&M

Jonnu Smith, FIU, 23.8%

  • 5 rec., 62 yards @ MTSU

Sam Browning, Eastern Michigan, 23.3%

  • 2 rec,. 41 yards, 22 rush yards @ Toledo

Vandbilt’s Steven Scheu might be a TE prospect to keep an eye on. The senior currently has 867 receiving yards for his career. If you look at BCS/Power 5 conference tight ends who have 1,000 career receiving yards and are at least 6’4, history says about 75% (36 of 48 since 2005) of guys fitting that profile will get drafted… O.J. Howard, good to see you. After three years of hype, I’m glad to know that you actually have an ounce of production to go along with the buzz… And welcome back, Jonnu Smith. Jonnu was one of my most precocious tight ends a few years back and has been up and down since.

Seasonal TE Leaders

Rodney Mills, UMass, 28.6% of team’s receiving yards

  • 6’1, 205lbs, Senior

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 28%

  • 5’11, 236lbs, Sophomore

David Morgan II, UTSA, 27%

  • 6’4, 260lbs, Senior

Gerald Everett, South Alabama, 25.7%

  • 6’4, 225lbs, Junior

Scott Orndoff, Pittsburgh, 24.1%

  • 6’5, 265lbs, Junior

Dan Vitale, Northwestern, 22.4%

  • 6’2, 235lbs, Senior

Cam Serigne, Wake Forest, 21.4%

  • 6’3, 245lbs, Sophomore

Jake Butt, Michigan, 21.3%

  • 6’6, 248lbs, Junior

Elkanah Dillon, South Florida, 21.1%

  • 6’5, 245lbs, Freshman

Matt Weiser, Buffalo, 21.1%

  • 6’5, 255lbs, Senior

Austin Hooper, Stanford, 20.8%

  • 6’4, 248lbs, Junior

Honestly, I have no idea why 6’0 205lb Rodney Smith is listed as a TE, but he is listed like that everywhere… Dan Vitale is a new name on this list. He’s technically a “super back” a.k.a an “H-Back” a.k.a. an undersized, “move” tight end, so I think he may have got lost in the positional shuffle before. With a career stat line of 120-1293-9, he could end up being a Charles Clay-like prospect if he’s got some athleticism… Austin Hooper is good to see on this list. He’s carrying the Stanford TE mantle and is one of the better prospects at that position.

Special Teams Studs of the week

Shelton Gibson, WR, West Virginia, 185 ret. yards, 1 ret. TD, 92 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Baylor

Demarcus Ayers, WR, Houston, 175 ret. yards, 1 ret. TD, 93 rec. yards, 15 rush yards, 1 rush TD @ Tulane

Tim White, WR, Arizona State, 169 ret. yards, 1 ret. TD, 25 rec. yards @ Utah

C.J. Sanders, WR, Notre Dame, 160 ret. yards vs USC

Brett Winnegan, RB, UTSA, 138 ret. yards @ So. Miss

Bralon Addison, WR, Oregon, 136 ret. yards, 78 rec. yards, 15 rush yards @ Washington

Jabrill Peppers, RB/DB, Michigan, 129 ret. yards, 35 rec. yards vs Michigan State

Donovan Lee, WR, Colorado, 129 ret. yards, 5 rec. yards, 4 rush yards vs Arizona

Devin Fuller, WR, UCLA, 128 ret. yards, 44 rec. yards @ Stanford

Victor Bolden, WR, Oregon State, 125 ret. yards, 1 ret. TD, 79 rec. yards, 8 rush yards @ Washington State

Shelton Gibson (WVU) is a problem. The next in a line of Mountaineer receivers that includes Tavon Austin, Stedman Bailey and Kevin White, Gibson made a few plays over the weekend that made me shake my head. Kid can fly!… Jabrill Peppers was a highly touted RB/DB recruit, but has mostly played on defense throughout his career. It looks like Harbaugh has reached the point of “he’s too talented to ever be on the sideline” so he’s been getting special teams and offensive touches lately too. If Harbaugh thinks he’s that good, then I am intrigued… Fill it up, Victor Bolden!

FYI, I include a section for special teams stats because my research has shown that there is hidden value in special teams performers.

Seasonal Special Teams Leaders

Byron Marshall, WR, Oregon, 96.3 return yards/g

  • 5’10, 205lbs, Senior

Brandon Smith, WR, Texas State, 93.2

  • 6’2, 170lbs, Senior

Brisly Estime, WR, Syracuse, 91.3

  • 5’9, 178lbs, Junior

Janarion Grant, WR, Rutgers, 90.3

  • 5’11, 170lbs, Junior

Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M, 88

  • 5’11, 200lbs, Freshman

Devin Fuller, WR, UCLA, 87

  • 6’0, 200lbs Senior

Brett Winnegan, RB, UTSA, 86

  • 5’9, 185lbs, Freshman

Tim White, WR, Arizona State, 85.5

  • 5’11, 185lbs, Junior

Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford, 83.7

  • 6’0, 201lbs, Sophomore

Maurice Thomas, RB, Miami OH, 79.7

  • 5’11, 176lbs, Freshman

This is your weekly reminder: Christian Kirk is downright ridiculous!

Final thought – would you check out the new RotoViz College Football Podcast and make sure you’re subscribing to the RotoViz Radio feed on iTunes?

(cover photo credit to PennStateLive on Flickr)

The College Football Market Share Report – Week 3 recap

Welcome to the College Football Market Share Report, where each week I’ll be running through the players who are shouldering an exceptional percentage of their team’s offense.

In the past, my prospect analysis has typically waited until after the season to get going, but by tracking these metrics on a weekly basis in season we can more easily identify exceptional talents before everyone else does.

Note that the commentary below will highlight the most recent week’s top performers as well as seasonal leaders. Also, since this is somewhat of an experimental article, I’m going to ask for your feedback on how this should evolve moving forward, so feel free to leave a comment.

As this is somewhat dense with numbers, I’d recommend skimming through the names and then checking out the blurbs at the bottom of each section.

Quarterbacks of the week

Shuler Bentley, Old Dominion, 93.9% of team’s offensive yards

  • 151 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, -12 rush yards vs NC State

Blake Frohnapfel, UMass, 87.4%

  • 393 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, -10 rush yards vs Temple

Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky, 87.1%

  • 484 pass yards, 3 TD, 2 INT, 11 rush yards @ Indiana

P.J. Walker, Temple, 83.6%

  • 391 pass yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, -8 rush yards @ UMass

Chad Kelly, Ole Miss, 83.6%

  • 341 pass yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 21 rush yards @ Alabama

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 83.6%

  • 443 pass yards, 4 TD, 0 INT, 41 rush yards vs Memphis

Jake Browning, Washington, 83%

  • 368 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, -1 rush yards vs Utah State

C.J. Beathard, Iowa, 81.8%

  • 258 pass yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 39 rush yards vs Pitt

Jerrod Heard, Texas, 81.1%

  • 364 pass yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 163 rush yards vs California

Tyler Jones, Texas State, 79.5%

  • 310 pass yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 160 rush yards vs Southern Miss

There’s a lot to talk about here. Texas’ Jerrod Heard went bananas on national TV against Cal and drew comparisons to Vince Young… Chad “Swag” Kelly took Ole Miss on the road and defeated Alabama. No small feat. The Rebels are now the #3 ranked team in the country… It looks like Washington coach Chris Petersen (formerly at Boise) has his new Kellen Moore. Somewhat undersized freshman Jake Browning has been great so far… Finally, shoutout to Tyler Jones from Texas State, who Benjamin Allbright and I were discussing on Twitter late last week and then Jones proceeds to put up 470 yards of total offense.  Maybe undersized, maybe from a small conference, but maybe really awesome? Time will tell.

QB Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Offensive Yards

Luke Falk, Washington State, 80.5%

Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky, 78.8%

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 77.5%

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 77.0%

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 76.8%

Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut, 75.5%

Johnny McCrary, Vanderbilt, 75.1%

Matt Linehan, Idaho, 74.1%

Matt Davis, SMU, 73.4%

Blake Kemp, East Carolina, 73.2%

Nothing too surprising here – three quarterbacks from pass-happy teams leading the way – but this is probably a helpful list to keep in mind for finding undervalued DFS quarterbacks.

Running backs of the week

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 58.1% of team’s offensive yards

  • 15 rush yards, 71 receiving yards, 1 rec. TD vs NC State

Demario Richard, Arizona State, 56.8%

  • 104 rush yards, 4 receptions, 151 receiving yards, 2 rec. TD vs New Mexico

Devontae Booker, Utah, 55.8%

  • 156 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 5 receptions, 56 receiving yards @ Fresno

Paul Perkins, UCLA, 54.5%

  • 219 rush yards, 1 rush TD vs BYU

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 51.5%

  • 102 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 5 receptions, 55 receiving yards vs South Alabama

Justin Jackson, Northwestern, 50.9%

  • 120 rush yards, 2 receptions, 18 receiving yards @ Duke

Nick Holley, Kent State, 50%

  • 58 rush yards, 3 receptions, 13 receiving yards @ Minnesota

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 48.9%

  • 228 rush yards, 3 rush TD, 1 reception, 9 rec. yards vs Auburn

Tyler Ervin, SJSU, 48.6%

  • 93 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 6 receptions, 30 rec. yards @ Oregon State

Joel Bouagnon, Northern Illinois, 45.3%

  • 78 rush yards, 3 receptions, 8 rec. yards @ Ohio State

On a team with national championship aspirations, but lead by a freshman quarterback, UCLA’s Paul Perkins is quietly putting together a fantastic season. If he can continue to take the load of Josh Rosen and the Bruins win the Pac-12 South (two BIG ifs) I would think Perkins would be a Heisman finalist. And he’s not just a one-hit wonder; he balled in 2014 too.

RB Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Offensive Yards

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 51.3%

Aaron Jones, UTEP, 51.0%

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 48.2%

Devontae Booker, Utah, 45.1%

Jahad Thomas, Temple, 44.6%

Kareem Hunt, Toledo, 41.7%

Devon Johnson, Marshall, 38.4%

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 38.0%

Brian Hill, Wyoming, 37.5%

Demario Richard, Arizona State, 37.5%

Maybe you’ve never heard of Ray Lawry (2017 eligible), but it’s time to start paying attention. The 5’11 200b sophomore is a one-man wrecking crew for the Monarchs… speaking of which, how about Leonard Fournette? In consecutive weeks he has torn apart SEC defenses and in the process seen his Heisman odds go from 13-1 on September 8 (eighth-best odds) to 3.5-1 this week, which makes him the Vegas favorite to win the award.

Receivers of the week

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 63.7% of team’s receiving yards

  • 8 receptions, 193 rec. yards, 2 rec. TD vs Rice

Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 63.2%

  • 8 receptions, 156 rec. yards, 3 rec. TD vs Air Force

DaeSean Hamilton, Penn State, 61.0%

  • 5 receptions, 86 rec. yards vs Rutgers

Trent Sherfield, Vanderbilt, 60.9%

  • 16 receptions, 240 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Austin Peay

Gerald Everett, South Alabama, 60.7%

  • 8 receptions, 164 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ SDSU

Roger Lewis, Bowling Green, 58.9%

  • 7 receptions, 261 rec. yards, 3 rec. TD vs Memphis

Tyler Boyd, Pitt, 57.7%

  • 10 receptions, 131 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD, 7 rush yards @ Iowa

DeAndre Bell, Army, 57.4%

  • 1 reception, 31 rec. yards vs Wake Forest

JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC, 56.3%

  • 8 receptions, 153 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Stanford

DeBrandon Sanders, Navy, 56.1%

  • 1 reception, 23 rec. yards, 1 rush, 20 rush yards vs East Carolina

Jordan Payton, UCLA, 55.7%

  • 4 receptions, 59 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs BYU

Even if Air Force isn’t exactly a defensive juggernaut, Aaron Burbridge’s performance shouldn’t be discounted. He’s strung together three consecutive 100+ yard games to start the season, is catching passes from Connor Cook and has the size to intrigue NFL types. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Cody Latimer-esque ascent over the next six months. Just something to monitor.

WR Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Receiving Yards

Jamir Tillman, Navy, 72.2%

Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh, 55.5%

Chris Godwin, Penn State, 55.1%

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 54.1%

Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 53.8%

Will Fuller, Notre Dame, 52.1%

Dameon Gamblin, New Mexico, 51.2%

Tanner Gentry, Wyoming, 49.1%

Devin Scott, Louisiana-Lafayette, 48.1%

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 47.4%

Should I exclude military school players from this list, since their likelihood of NFL relevance is so unlikely?… Tyler Boyd is the most noteworthy player here for several reasons. First, he’s putting together an awesome season as the obvious focal point of the offense and still nobody can stop him. Also, his birth year had been previously reported as 1993, but now the official Pitt website lists it as 1994. If it’s true that he’s a year younger than we originally thought – a 20 year old freshman in 2013 – his dynasty stock gets a significant boost on several fronts… And say what’s up to Will Fuller, who is smallish, but is tearing it up for the Irish.

Special Teams Studs of the week

Earlier this year at Rotoviz I detailed the hidden value of special teams stats in prospect analysis. Keeping with that theme, here’s a look at the top players making an impact in the return game.

Devin Fuller, UCLA, 194 return yards vs BYU

Ryan Switzer, UNC, 168 return yards, 1 ret. TD vs Illinois

Shon Cardon, South Carolina, 162 return yards @ Georgia

Johnny Holton, Cincinnati, 125 return yards @ Miami OH

DJ May, Wyoming, 122 return yards @ Washington State

Brandon Smith, Texas State, 122 return yards vs Southern Miss

Diontae Johnson, Toledo, 119 return yards vs Iowa State

Adoree’ Jackson, USC, 118 return yards vs Stanford

Solomon Vault, Northwestern, 118 return yards, 1 ret. TD @ Duke

Brett Winnegan, UTSA, 112 return yards   @ Oklahoma State

If there’s a Wes Welker-type prospect (undersized, premium special teamer) on this list it’s Ryan Switzer. In his debut campaign in 2013 he averaged more than 20 yards per punt return and is back on a similar path this year after being kept somewhat under wraps last year. Also, randomly, he’s thrown two passes in his career – indicating a high level of trust by the coaching staff – both of which went for touchdowns.

Special Teams Leaders – Seasonal Top 10

Janarion Grant, Rutgers, 129.3 return yards/g

Kylen Towner, WKU, 107.0

Autrey Golden, UTEP, 96.6

Christian Kirk, Texas A&M, 93.7

Brett Winnegan, UTSA, 93.0

De’Chavon “Gump” Hayes, Arizona State, 87.5

Jeremiah Bryson, MTSU, 84.3

Diontae Johnson, Toledo, 82.0

Devin Fuller, UCLA, 79.7

Eric Hawkins, Arkansas, 79.5

One player on this list who made a huge splash on opening weekend and who I’ve been meaning to write about is Texas A&M freshman Christian Kirk. He’s a solid 5’11 200lbs, doesn’t turn 19 until November and is already balling. In addition to his special teams contributions, he’s also contributing on offense. At this point, he’s probably the most valuable 2015 freshman devy prospect in the game.

QUESTIONS

  1. For wide receivers, I like “market share of receiving yards” since we’ve used those for a while and people generally understand the continuum, but what did you think about the QB and RB breakdowns being based on market share of offense? Is there something else you’d rather see?
  2. Should I keep service academy players out of this list since they almost never end up playing in the NFL and part of this exercise is to help in prospect identification?
  3. Would you like access to the data set that helped generate this article? If so, you could email me at THECFX at GMAIL dot COM, or I could just set up a link with a free download. Let me know.