The College Football Market Share Report – Season Recap

That’s all, folks! The 2015-16 College Football season is officially over. It’s almost time to turn our attention to draft season, but before we do here is one final Market Share Report.

For this edition I’ve made a few tweaks, including a section for best past-catching running backs. Also, for anyone who I know is entering the 2016 NFL Draft, I’ve put an asterisk by their name.

How you might want to interact with this article:
1) Skim the dense parts and read the summaries at the end of each section
2) Find rockstar performances and focus on those in your film-watching endeavors
3) Leave a comment because comments are fun

With this being the last article in this series, I ask that, if you enjoyed this publication throughout the season, you consider supporting my work via a paypal donation.

Quarterbacks of Bowl Season

Sean Maguire, Florida State, 92.7% of team’s offensive yards

  • 22-44, 392 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT vs Houston

Patrick Mahomes II, Texas Tech, 85.7%

  • 28-56, 370 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT vs LSU

Lamar Jackson, Louisville, 84.8%

  • 12-26, 227 yards, 2 TD, 226 rush yards, 2 rush TD vs Texas A&M

Tanner Mangum, BYU, 82.4%

  • 25-56, 315 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT, 1 rush TD vs Utah

*Mike Bercovici, Arizona State, 82.3%

  • 29-52, 418 yards, 4 TD, 10 rush yards vs WVU

*Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State, 82.3%

  • 14-29, 208 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT vs SJSU

Skyler Howard, West Virginia, 82.1%

  • 28-51, 532 yards, 5 TD, 2 INT, 23 rush yards vs ASU

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss, 81.9%

  • 25-38, 331 yards, 2 TD vs Washington

Thomas Woodson, Akron, 81.2%

  • 14-29, 168 yards, 1 INT, 47 rush yards, rec. TD vs Utah St

Josh Rosen, UCLA, 79.8%

  • 26-40, 319 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT vs Nebraska

ACC fans might want to take note of Louisville and QB Lamar Jackson. He posted massive dual-threat production in the bowl game and is just a sophomore next year. Bobby Petrino will be in his third season, which was a fruitful point during his first stay at Louisville and at Arkansas; he lost no more than three games in either of those “year threes”… it might be fun to go back and watch that ASU-WVU bowl game, considering it had two quarterbacks going absolutely bonkers in it.

 

Seasonal QB Leaders

Luke Falk, Washington State, 76.8% of team’s offensive yards

  • 6’4, 205lbs, Sophomore

*Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State, 75.9%

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 74.6%

  • 6’3, 227lbs, Junior

*Dak Prescott, Mississippi State, 73.2%

  • 6’2, 230lbs, Senior

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 71.8%

  • 6’0, 211lbs, Freshman

*Jeff Driskel, Louisiana Tech, 69.4%

  • 6’4, 231lbs, Senior

Riley Neal, Ball State, 68.7%

  • 6’5, 217lbs, Freshman

*Jared Goff, Cal, 68.6%

  • 6’2, 215lbs, Junior

Brent Stockstill, MTSU, 68%

  • 6’0, 200lbs, Freshman

Patrick Mahomes II, Texas Tech, 67.9%

  • 6’3, 219lbs, Sophomore

Alex McGough, FIU, 67.5%

  • 6’3, 218lbs, Sophomore

Deshaun Watson, Clemson, 67.5%

  • 6’2, 210lbs, Sophomore

Chad Kelly, Ole Miss, 67.5%

  • 6’2, 215lbs, Junior

It’s fun to see Jared Goff end the year with a bang and climb so high up this list. An early declaration, he’s almost certain to go in the first round. Just for fun, I thought I’d check on how first-round quarterbacks from the last two years fared in terms of final-seasons market share of offense:

  • Winston – 67.8%
  • Mariota – 64.0%
  • Bortles – 67.1%
  • Manziel – 69.6%
  • Bridgewater – 67.6%

The average is 67.2%, which is slightly below Goff’s mark (68.9%), and he did himself no favors with his rushing ability… As later-round prospects, it will be fun to see where Dak Prescott and Jeff Driskel end up going… Say hello to Deshaun Watson, Chad Kelly and Patrick Mahomes, who should be among college football’s most exciting quarterbacks in 2016.

 

Running Backs of Bowl Season

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 64.6%

  • 18 carries, 172 yards, 105 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD, 91 ret. yards, 1 ret. TD vs Iowa

Joe Williams, Utah, 57.4%

  • 25 carries, 91 yards, 2 TD, 22 rec. yards vs BYU

James Butler, Nevada, 54.8%

  • 24 carries, 189 yards, 2 TD vs Colorado St

Romello Ross, Central Michigan, 51.4%

  • 19 carries, 100 yards, 1 TD, 28 rec. yards vs Minnesota

Joel Bouagnon, Northern Illinois, 48.5%

  • 8 carries, 16 yards vs Boise

*Tyler Ervin, SJSU, 45.1%

  • 30 carries, 132 yards, 98 return yards vs Georgia State

Johnny Jefferson, Baylor, 42.7%

  • 23 carries, 299 yards, 3 TD, 24 pass yards vs UNC

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 40.1%

  • 29 carries, 212 yards, 4 TD, 44 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Texas Tech

Donnel Pumphrey, SDSU, 39.9%

  • 25 carries, 99 yards, 1 TD, 19 rec. yards, 16 pass yards vs Cincinnati

Marcus Cox, Appalachian State, 37.9%

  • 24 carries, 162 yards, 1 TD vs Ohio

Bowl season and pretty much everything else for the last two months (except the Heisman) has belonged to Christian McCaffrey. If there’s a single bowl season performance worth going back to re-watch, it’s him in the Rose Bowl. I know this is going to sound absurd, and there will almost certainly be “white running back” stereotypes to overcome, but I think he’s a borderline Reggie Bush caliber prospect… Johnny Jefferson might be the only player in McCaffrey’s tier of bowl-studliness. When looking at his bowl game and last regular season game, he rushed for 457 yards on 46 carries. Bye bye, Shock Linwood. Heeeeeeereeee’s Johnny!… Keep an eye on Marcus Cox next year for App State. That program is on the rise and he’s their best offensive player.

 

Seasonal RB Leaders

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 44.3% of team’s offensive yards

  • 6’0, 201lbs, Sophomore

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 42%

  • 6’1, 230lbs, Sophomore

*Devontae Booker, Utah, 41.2%

  • 6’1, 212lbs, Senior

Brian Hill, Wyoming, 40.7%

  • 6’1, 211lbs, Sophomore

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 39.7%

  • 5’9, 180lbs, Junior

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 39.2%

  • 5’11, 202lbs, Sophomore

Larry Rose III, New Mexico State, 37.2%

  • 5’11, 184lbs, Sophomore

Justin Jackson, Northwestern, 37.2%

  • 5’11, 190lbs, Sophomore

*Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 36.8%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Senior

*Derrick Henry, Alabama, 36.1%

  • 6’3, 242lbs, Junior

*Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State, 35.9%

  • 6’0, 225lbs, Junior

What a remarkable year for college running backs. Not sure how else to say it. And even though  Zeke, Derrick and Devontae are off to the NFL, next year will be loaded to with many of the names on this list returning and a few others like Royce Freeman, Marlon Mack, Saquon Barkley and more to sprinkle in… And for the record, I’m still not over the fact that Derrick Henry won the Heisman, depsite accounting for roughly eight percent less of his offense than McCaffrey did on similarly outstanding teams.

 

Seasonal RB Leaders – Pass Catching

Taquan Mizzell, Virginia, 25.2% of team’s receiving yards

  • 5’10, 195lb, Junior

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 21.8%

  • 6’0, 201lbs, Sophomore

*Jalin Marshall, Ohio State, 21.3%

  • 5’11, 205lbs, RS-Sophomore

Ervin Phillips, Syracuse, 21.3%

  • 5’11, 181lbs, Sophomore

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 20.9%

  • 5’9, 180lbs, Junior

Arkeel Newsome, Connecticut, 19.3%

  • 5’7, 182lbs, Sophomore

Clinton Lynch, Georgia Tech, 18.7%

  • 6’0, 181lbs, Freshman

*Dwayne Washington, Washington, 17.5%

  • 6’2, 226lbs, Junior

Papi White, Ohio, 17.5%

  • 5’9, 166lbs, Freshman

Raekwon James, Kent State, 17.3%

  • 5’9, 187lbs, Freshman

Ben Lewis, Syracuse, 16.5%

  • 6’2, 213lbs, Junior

*Devontae Booker, Utah, 15.5%

  • 5’11, 212lbs, Senior

This is a new category and I’m not entirely sure how relevant it is, but I thought it was interesting. Two of the more head-scratching NFL Draft early entries – Marshall and Washington – show up on this list, which could help explain their entries despite their substandard rushing production… On the other hand, Devontae Booker is a badass on all fronts… And shoutout to Donnel Pumphrey, who appears on both the overall running back leaderboard and the pass-catching back leaderboard. He’s so tiny, but so talented.

Service academy footnotes: Timothy McVey (Air Force, 22.2%), John Trainor (Army, 20.1%), DeBrandon Sanders (Navy, 19.5%)

 

Wide Receivers of Bowl Season

*Malcolm Mitchell, Georgia, 70.8% of team’s receiving yards

  • 5 rec., 114 yards, 1 TD vs Penn State

Isaiah Ford, Virginia Tech, 66%

  • 12 rec., 227 yards, 1 TD, 23 rush yards vs Tulsa

Josh Reynolds, Texas A&M, 57.7%

  • 11 rec., 177 yards vs Louisville

Jerico Richardson, Nevada, 56.8%

  • 4 rec,. 42 yards vs Colorado St

*Cayleb Jones, Arizona, 55.3%

  • 4 rec., 182 yards, 1 TD vs New Mexico

Corey Davis, Western Michigan, 55.3%

  • 8 rec., 183 yards, 1 TD vs MTSU

Justin Holmes, SJSU, 53.9%

  • 3 rec., 48 yards vs Georgia State

*Mike Thomas, Southern Miss, 53.8%

  • 9 rec., 190 yards, 2 TD, 34 ret. yards vs Washington

Andrew Pratt, Akron, 51.6%

  • 9 rec., 94 yards vs Utah State

Travis Rudolph, Florida State, 50.6%

  • 7 rec., 201 yards, 1 TD vs Houston

Good on Malcolm Mitchell to finish an adventurous career with an epic performance in his bowl game. I’m not that high on him as a prospect (for now), but going over 100 yards and 70% of his team’s passing offense is ridiculous… DEVY OWNERS – keep an eye on Isaiah Ford. He’s just 19 years old, went nuts in his bowl game and accounted for nearly 40% of his team’s receiving yards on the year. That is ELITE… Finally, be aware of Mike Thomas from Southern Miss. Not to be confused with Mike Thomas from Ohio State or a million other Mike Thomases. This kid can play and is almost certainly a top 10 receiver in this draft for me. Much more to come on him.

 

Seasonal WR Leaders

*Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 47.2% of team’s receiving yards

  • 5’10, 175lbs, Senior

*Leonte Carroo, Rutgers, 43.6% of receiving yards

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Tanner Gentry, Wyoming, 43.6%

  • 6’2, 201lbs, Junior

*Tajae Sharpe, UMass, 42.7%

  • 6’3, 188lbs, Senior

BJ Johnson, Georgia Southern, 41.8%

  • 6’1, 212lbs, Junior

Isaiah Ford, Virginia Tech, 39.6%

  • 6’2, 188lbs, Sophomore

Chris Godwin, Penn State, 39.5%

  • 6’1, 208lbs, Sophomore

*Tyler Boyd, Pitt, 39.5%

  • 6’2, 200lbs, Junior

*Pharoh Cooper, South Carolina, 39.1%

  • 5’11, 207lbs, Junior

Kenny Golladay, Northern Illinois, 38.7%

  • 6’4, 200lbs, Junior

JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC, 38.5%

  • 6’2, 215lbs, Sophomore

Corey Davis (my love), Western Michigan, 38.4%

  • 6’3, 205lbs, Junior

*Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 38.4%

  • 6’1, 208lbs, Senior

Exciting to see that this leaderboard is peppered with players who will be in the 2016 NFL Draft. I’ve already written about a number of them at RotoViz and plan to hit more in the coming weeks:

Looking ahead to 2016, Ford, Godwin, Juju and Corey Davis are among the top returning receiver prospects… About Dezmon Epps, he only played six games this year, and he’s miniature, but he was really good in those games, so I cheated a bit on my games played requirement and included him for draft awareness purposes.

Service Academy footnotes: Jamir Tillman (51.3%, Navy), Edgar Poe (44.6%, Army)

Jerome Lane footnotes: 32% of Akron’s yards

 

Tight Ends of Bowl Season

Cole Hikutini, Louisville, 45.4% of team’s receiving yards

  • 3 rec., 103 yards vs NC State

O.J. Howard, Alabama, 45% (2 games)

  • 8 rec., 267 yards, 2 TD vs Michigan St, Clemson

Pharoah McKever, NC State, 38.3%

  • 1 rec., 82 yards, 1 TD vs Mississippi State

Alex Ellis, Tennessee, 38.1%

  • 3 rec., 74 yards vs Northwestern

Ari Werts, Georgia State, 30.3%

  • 3 rec., 63 yards vs SJSU

*Hunter Henry, Arkansas, 29.2%

  • 5 rec., 92 yards vs Kansas State

*Ben McCord, Central Michigan, 29%

  • 2 rec., 42 yards vs Minnesota

Alec Bloom, UConn, 27.9%

  • 2 rec., 24 yards vs Marshall

Evan Engram, Ole Miss, 27.7%

  • 6 rec., 96 yards vs Oklahoma State

Barrett Burns, Appalachian St, 25.8%

  • 3 rec., 32 yards, 2 TD vs Ohio

After years of hearing about O.J. Howard and not seeing any production, it was exciting to see him blow up in the National Championship game. Paging Lane Kiffin, please use him more next year… Hunter Henry is a name you need to know, if you don’t already. Probably my top TE prospect for the 2016 Draft.

 

Seasonal TE Leaders

*David Morgan II, UTSA, 24.4% of team’s receiving yards

  • 6’4, 260lbs, Senior

Gerald Everett, South Alabama, 24%

  • 6’4, 225lbs, Junior

*Rodney Mills, UMass, 21.9%

  • 6’1, 205lbs, Senior

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 21.8%

  • 5’11, 236lbs, Sophomore

O.J. Howard, Alabama, 21.2%

  • 6’6, 242lbs, Junior

*Dan Vitale, Northwestern, 21.2%

  • 6’2, 235lbs, Senior

*Hunter Henry, Arkansas, 21.2%

  • 6’5, 253lbs, Junior

Jake Butt, Michigan, 21.2%

  • 6’6, 248lbs, Junior

Billy Freeman, SJSU, 21.2%

  • 6’3, 232lbs, Junior

*Matt Weiser, Buffalo, 20.9%

  • 6’5, 255lbs, Senior

Cam Serigne, Wake Forest, 20.5%

  • 6’3, 245lbs, R-Sophomore

Brandon Lingen, Minnesota, 20.2%

  • 6’5, 247lbs, Sophomore

The 2016 TE class looks like it’s going to take a hit by not having Serigne, Hodges, Butt and Engram not declare, but I’m intrigued by what David Morgan II and, to a lesser extent, Matt Weiser might have to offer.

 

Seasonal Special Teams Leaders

Janarion Grant, Rutgers, WR, 91.3% of team’s return yards

  • 5’11, 170lbs, Junior

Brisly Estime, Syracuse, WR, 89.6%

  • 5’9, 178lbs, Junior

*Derek Keaton, Georgia Southern, WR, 89.6%

  • 5’11, 185lbs, Senior

Kylen Towner, Western Kentucky, WR, 89.4%

  • 5’8, 175lbs, Sophomore

*Teddy Ruben, Troy, WR, 87.3%

  • 5’7, 161lbs, Senior

KaVontae Turpin, TCU, WR, 86.7%

  • 5’9, 152lbs, Freshman

*Deandre Reaves, Marshall, WR, 86.2%

  • 5’10, 179lbs, Senior

*Tyler Ervin, SJSU, RB, 85.2%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Senior

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, RB, 84.6%

  • 6’0, 201lbs, Sophomore

*Jakeem Grant, Texas Tech, WR, 83.6%

  • 5’7, 168lbs, Senior

I’ve written in the past about how special teams contributions are a key to finding hidden value, and I’m curious about how Jakeem Grant will fare in the coming months. He’s pretty dynamic and looked great against LSU in his bowl game.

And, yes, I’m aware that I used the same Christian McCaffrey photo on this article and the last in-season one, but he’s earned it.

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The College Football Market Share Report – Week 10 Recap

New week. Same great taste. We’re looking at college football’s top performers based on the percentage of their offense they are shouldering.

How you might want to interact with this article:
1) Skim the dense parts and read the summaries at the end of each section
2) Find rockstar performances and focus on those in your film-watching endeavors
3) Leave a comment so I can make this content even more beneficial to you

Let’s get to it.

Quarterbacks of the week

Luke Falk, Washington State, 92.4% of team’s offensive yards

  • 36-55, 497 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT vs Arizona State

James Summers, East Carolina, 90.9%

  • 14-22, 158 yards, 42 rush yards, 2 rush TD vs USF

DaMarcus Smith, North Texas, 88.3%

  • 25-45, 234 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 45 rush yards @ La Tech

Tanner Mangum, BYU, 86.0%

  • 23-37, 293 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT @ SJSU

Mitch Leidner, Minnesota, 85.4%

  • 27-44, 281 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT @ Ohio State

John Fadule, Boston College, 85.3%

  • 23-37, 257 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT vs NC State

Anu Solomon, Arizona, 85.0%

  • 31-46, 352 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT @ USC

Gunner Kiel, Cincinnati, 84.7%

  • 28-51, 523 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT @ Houston

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State, 82.9%

  • 16-24, 352 yards, 5 TD, 26 rush yards vs TCU

David Washington, Old Dominion, 81.6%

  • 29-48, 378 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 69 rush yards @ UTSA

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State, 81.4%

  • 27-40, 303 yards, 4 TD, 47 rush yards @ Missouri

Gunner Kiel has gone bananas in two straight games. I haven’t really watched him play yet this year, but I’ve heard some good things about him. He could be a sneaky late-climber in a potential QB class that’s grasping at straws right now… Mason Rudolph and Oklahoma State proved they were legit with a big win against TCU last weekend. That team (and I guess Ohio State) is one of the rare cases of a quarterback rotation working well on the college level. Props to Rudolph and J.W. Walsh for making that work… Boston College’s John Fadule is back for a second straight week. You’d think they would ask a freshman quarterback to do less, not more, but he’s been carrying that team lately.

Seasonal QB Leaders

Luke Falk, Washington State, 81.0% of team’s offensive yards

  • 6’4, 205lbs, Sophomore

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 76.9%

  • 6’0, 211lbs, Freshman

Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State, 76.6%

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 74.7%

  • 6’3, 227lbs, Junior

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 72.0%

  • 6’0, 219lbs, Senior

Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut, 71.6%

  • 6’2, 220lbs, Sophomore

Trevone Boykin, TCU, 71.0%

  • 6’2, 205lbs, Senior

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State, 69.4%

  • 6’2, 230lbs, Senior

Alex McGough, FIU, 69.4%

  • 6’3, 218lbs, Sophomore

Riley Neal, Ball State, 69.0%

  • 6’5, 217lbs, Freshman

Dak Prescott, your table is ready. This weekend the Mississippi State senior gets Alabama at home in what could be the culminating moment of his career and vault him into the Heisman top five. He almost perfectly fits the historical Heisman prototype for dual-threat quarterbacks… Luke Falk is having some kind of season. I haven’t run the numbers against historical Mike Leach quarterbacks, but it’s hard to imagine that anyone could have accounted for a higher percentage of the offense than Falk is this year… Even with the loss, I think Trevone Boykin still has Heisman life. He is everything for that offense.

Running Backs of the week

Ralph Webb, Vanderbilt, 67.4% of team’s offensive yards

  • 22 carries, 118 yards, 1 TD @ Florida

Paul Harris, Hawaii, 57.1%

  • 20 carries, 190 yards, 1 TD, 2 rec., 26 rec. yards @ UNLV

Larry Rose III, New Mexico State, 55.4%

  • 31 carries, 207 yards, 2 TD, 2 rec., 85 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Texas State

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 54.8%

  • 21 carries, 194 yards, 1 TD, 1 rec., 4 rec. yards @ Clemson

Devontae Booker, Utah, 49.4%

  • 34 carries, 150 yards, 1 TD, 2 rec., 21 rec. yards @ Washington

Justin Jackson, Northwestern, 49.2%

  • 28 carries, 186 yards, 1 rec., 9 rec. yards vs Penn State

Derrick Henry, Alabama, 48.4%

  • 38 carries, 210 yards, 3 TD vs LSU

Saquon Barkley (SQBK), Penn State, 47.0%

  • 25 carries, 120 yards, 2 TD, 6 rec., 50 rec. yards @ Northwestern

Jordan Howard, Indiana, 46.4%

  • 22 carries, 174 yards, 2 TD, 2 rec., 15 rec. yards vs Iowa

DeAndre Washington, Texas Tech, 43.9%

  • 21 carries, 102 yards, 6 rec., 64 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ WVU

Ralph Webb is back for the second week in a row after he single handedly carried the Vanderbilt offense to a near upset of the Gators… Justin Jackson and Derrick Henry used their massive performances over the weekend to vault into the seasonal leaderboard, which we’ll get to in a minute… Jordan Howard, a prospect I love and who is finally healthy again, had 174 rush yards against an Iowa defense that hadn’t allowed any other running back to surpass 75 yards all season.

Seasonal RB Leaders

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 42.7% of team’s offensive yards

  • 5’11, 202lbs, Sophomore

Devontae Booker, Utah, 41.9%

  • 6’1, 212lbs, Senior

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 41.8%

  • 6’1, 230lbs, Sophomore

Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 41.7%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Senior

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 40.8%

  • 5’9, 180lbs, Junior

Larry Rose III, New Mexico State, 40.5%

  • 5’11, 184lbs, Sophomore

Brian Hill, Wyoming, 40.0%

  • 6’1, 211lbs, Sophomore

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 39.3%

  • 6’0, 201lbs, Sophomore

Jahad Thomas, Temple, 36.1%

  • 5’10, 180lbs, Junior

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 35.6%

  • 5’10, 201lbs, Sophomore

Justin Jackson, Northwestern, 34.9%

  • 5’11, 190lbs, Sophomore

Derrick Henry, Alabama, 34.7%

  • 6’3, 242lbs, Junior

Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State, 34.5%

  • 6’0, 225lbs, Junior

Saquon Barkley, Penn State, 34.2%

  • 5’11, 222lbs, Freshman

What an amazing year for the running back position! This week Derrick Henry joins the mix after his breathtaking performance against LSU. It feels like the production has finally caught up with the hype and the result is a beautiful thing… Meanwhile, Leonard Fournette, for the first time since I’ve been doing this (I think), has fallen from the top spot… Dalvin Cook, Devontae Booker move up after great performances over the weekend… Saquon Barkley, man, I’m telling you. LOOK OUT!

Wide Receivers of the Week

Delane Hart-Johnson, New Mexico, 82.7%

  • 1 reception, 86 yards, 1 TD vs Utah State

Hasaan Henderson, Nevada, 66.0%

  • 5 rec., 136 yards, 1 TD @ Fresno State

Demarcus Robinson, Florida, 64.2%

  • 9 rec., 106 yards vs Vanderbilt

Al Riles, UL-Lafayette, 63.6%

  • 8 rec., 103 yards, 1 TD, 4 rush yards @ Georgia State

Jared Murphy, Miami OH, 60.7%

  • 7 rec., 91 yards, 2 TD vs Eastern Michigan

Travin Dural, LSU, 60.2%

  • 2 rec., 77 yards, 1 TD @ Alabama

Will Fuller, Notre Dame, 58.0%

  • 7 rec., 152 yards, 3 TD @ Pittsburgh

Malcolm Mitchell, Georgia, 57.8%

  • 4 rec., 52 yards vs Kentucky

Marcus Green, UL-Monroe, 56.9%

  • 12 rec., 149 yards, 1 TD, 13 ret. yards @ Troy

JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC, 56.8%

  • 8 rec., 138 yards, 1 TD vs Arizona

Demarcus Robinson is a guy I reallly liked last year in a floundering Florida offense. I thought maybe he could become Jim McElwain’s “new Rashard Higgins” this year, but it hasn’t been quite that seamless. All the same, he’s a strong player and could be a sneaky good addition to the 2016 draft class… Meanwhile, Will Fuller continues to maul defenses with no remorse. Since the start of last season, he has caught 27 of Notre Dame’s 50 touchdowns despite being just 6’0 180lbs….  Hasaan Henderson is a name to file away for later. He’s 6’5 220lbs and has 35% of Nevada’s receiving yards this season in a limited passing offense.

Service Academy footnotes: DeBrandon Sanders (Navy, 88.2%), Edgar Poe (Army, 73.3%), Garrett Brown (Air Force, 57.7%)

Seasonal WR Leaders

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 47.2% of receiving yards

  • 5’10, 175lbs, Senior

Tanner Gentry, Wyoming, 43.6%

  • 6’2, 201lbs, Junior

Leonte Carroo, Rutgers, 42.7%

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Corey Coleman, Baylor, 41.3%

  • 5’11, 190lbs, Junior

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 41.2%

  • 5’8, 185lbs, Senior

Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 41.1%

  • 6’1, 208lbs, Senior

Travin Dural, LSU, 41.0%

  • 6’2, 203lbs, Junior

Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh, 40.0%

  • 6’2, 200lbs, Junior

Daniel Braverman, Western Michigan, 40.0%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Junior

JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC, 39.8%

  • 6’2, 215lbs, Sophomore

Tajae Sharpe, UMass, 39.2%

  • 6’3, 188lbs, Senior

Corey Coleman DGAF who his quarterback is; he just keeps mauling. To see a guy rank fourth national in market share of yards AND lead the country in touchdowns is a pretty special combination…. Travin Dural hasn’t got much attention for the LSU offense this year, but he’s putting together a solid, Rueben Randle-esque college season in which he has great market share, but poor raw production. The body types are similar too… Finally, JuJu Smith-Schuster is incredible. This kid might be the single best receiver prospect in college football – yes, even above Treadwell. I think he’s deserving of finishing in the top 10 of the Heisman vote.

Service Academy footnotes: Jamir Tillman (45.5%, Navy), Garrett Brown (51.1%, Air Force), Edgar Poe (40.9%, Army)

Jerome Lane footnotes: 31.1% of Akron’s yards

Tight Ends of the week

Sam Dobbs, Vanderbilt, 70.0% of team’s receiving yards

  • 1 reception, 21 yards @ Florida

Bryce Williams, East Carolina, 53.8%

  • 6 rec., 85 yards vs USF

Kivon Cartwright, Colorado State, 46.7%

  • 4 rec., 56 yards @ Wyoming

Billy Freeman, SJSU, 45.6%

  • 6 rec., 67 yards vs BYU

Cody Tuttle, Eastern Michigan, 41.6%

  • 2 rec., 37 yards @ Miami OH

Hayden Plinke, UTEP, 36.8%

  • 9 rec., 85 yards vs Rice

Trey Scott, Tulane, 35.8%

  • 2 rec., 38 yards vs UConn

Rodney Mills, UMass, 35.8%

  • 6 rec., 62 yards vs Akron

Terry Pettis, MTSU, 35.7%

  • 5 rec., 126 yards, 1 TD vs Marshall

Deon Watson, Idaho, 34.4%

  • 7 rec., 109 yards, 2 TD @ South Alabama

Jordan Leggett, Clemson, 34%

  • 6 rec., 101 yards vs Florida State

Bryce Williams is a guy that Chris Burke singled out on last week’s On The Clock podcast, which he was kind enough to invite me to join. He hasn’t made much noise in this space, but he could be another nice piece of the 2016 class… Also, Jordan Leggett has been really good for Clemson this year. He’s got the size and production I like to see.

Seasonal TE Leaders

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 25.0% of team’s receiving yards

  • 5’11, 236lbs, Sophomore

Gerald Everett, South Alabama, 24.8%

  • 6’4, 225lbs, Junior

Rodney Mills, UMass, 24.6%

  • 6’1, 205lbs, Senior

David Morgan II, UTSA, 24.1%

  • 6’4, 260lbs, Senior

Dan Vitale, Northwestern, 23.7%

  • 6’2, 235lbs, Senior

Jake Butt, Michigan, 23.1%

  • 6’6, 248lbs, Junior

Bucky Hodges, Virginia Tech, 22.4%

  • 6’7, 241lbs, R-Sophomore

Matt Weiser, Buffalo, 21.8%

  • 6’5, 255lbs, Senior

Austin Hooper, Stanford, 21.4%

  • 6’4, 248lbs, Junior

There’s not a whole lot of shakeup in this list, but I’m starting to get excited for how good this TE draft class could be. Underclassmen like Hooper, Butt, Cam Serigne, Hodges, Hunter Henry, Jordan Leggett mixed in with senior like David Morgan and Matt Weiser could make for a fun draft class. Comparatively, tight end was really week last year.

Special Teams Studs of the week

Janarion Grant, Rutgers, WR, 237 return yards, 1 ret. TD, 3 rec., 26 rec. yards @ Michigan

Braeden West, SMU, RB, 180 ret. yards, 1 ret. TD, 1 rec., 45 rec. yards vs Temple

Aregeros Turner, Northern Illinois, WR, 168 ret. yards, 2 rec., 21 rec. yards @ Toledo

Tre Johnson, North Texas, RB, 168 ret. yards @ La Tech

KaVontae Turpin, TCU, WR, 153 ret. yards, 7 rec., 107 rec. yards, 4 rush, 22 rush yards @ Oklahoma State

Keelan Ewaliko, Hawaii, WR, 142 ret. yards @ UNLV

Xavier Johnson, South Alabama, RB, 141 ret. yards, 1 ret. TD, 9 rush., 148 rush. yards, 1 rush. TD vs Idaho

Tyrell Johnson, Arizona, WR, 139 ret. yards, 1 rec., 21 rec. yards @ USC

Jakeem Grant, Texas Tech, WR, 131 ret. yards, 5 rec., 8 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ WVU

Brisly Estime, Syracuse, WR, 130 ret. yards, 1 rec., 36 rec. yards @ Louisville

Three players return from last week: Keelan, Jakeem and Braeden. Keelan Ewaliko is interesting because he’s got more size than most return men at 5’11 200lbs. He’s listed as a receiver, but hasn’t contributed there yet… Braeden West, like Jakeem Grant, is a really small human being, especially for being a running back, but he certainly filled up the box score last week… KaVontae Turpin looks to be the only Horned Frog who enjoyed his trip to Stillwater.

Seasonal Special Teams Leaders

Janarion Grant, Rutgers, WR, 97.5% of team’s return yards

  • 5’11, 170lbs, Junior

Kylen Towner, Western Kentucky, WR, 92.6%

  • 5’8, 175lbs, Sophomore

Tyler Ervin, SJSU, RB, 90.6%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Senior

Bishop Louie, Tulsa, WR, 88.1%

  • 5’10, 170lbs, Sophomore

Maurice Thomas, Miami OH, RB, 88.1%

  • 5’11, 176lb, Freshman

Brisly Estime, Syracuse, WR, 87.9%

  • 5’9, 178lbs, Junior

Jakeem Grant, Texas Tech, WR, 85.7%

  • 5’7, 168lbs, Senior

Teddy Ruben, Troy, WR, 85.6%

  • 5’7, 161lbs, Senior

KaVontae Turpin, TCU, WR, 84.6%

  • 5’9, 152lbs, Freshman

Derek Keaton, Georgia Southern, WR, 83.1%

  • 5’11, 185lbs, Senior

I mixed this one up this week. I had been tracking raw yardage production (toward the goal of finding hidden value), but decided to switch to market share to see who were the true return maestros. The two names that really stand out are Tyler Ervin, who is fourth in this category and fourth in the seasonal running back category. That dude does everything for SJSU… Also, Jakeem Grant is super small, but he’s awesome in all the ways you’d hope for him to be. Athleticism is going to be huge for him when we get to draft season.

The College Football Market Share Report – Week 9 Recap

You know the drill. We’re looking at which players account for the highest percent of their team’s offense in various categories.

How you might want to interact with this article:
1) Skim the dense parts and read the summaries at the end of each section
2) Find rockstar performances and focus on those in your film-watching endeavors
3) Leave a comment so I can make this content even more beneficial to you

Let’s get to it.

Quarterbacks of the week

Deshone Kizer, Notre Dame, 94.6% of team’s offensive yards

  • 23 – 36, 299 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 143 rush yards, 2 rush TD @ Temple

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 93.2%

  • 23 – 37, 226 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 21 rush yards @ Akron

John Fadule, Boston College, 89.9%

  • 8 – 20, 143 yards, 1 INT, 53 rush yards vs Virginia Tech

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 87.4%

  • 16 – 35, 265 yards, 3 TD, 33 rush yards @ Louisiana-Lafayette

Thomas Woodson, Akron, 84.5%

  • 22 – 36, 252 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT vs Central Michigan

Quinton Flowers, South Florida, 82.6%

  • 12 – 20, 208 yards, 15 rush yards @ Navy

Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech, 81.9%

  • 38 – 55, 480 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT, 46 rush yards, 1 rush TD vs OK State

Chase Litton, Marshall, 78.9%

  • 33 – 48, 486 yards, 2 TD, 11 rush yards @ Charlotte

Luke Falk, Washington State, 78.5%

  • 35 – 63, 354 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT vs Stanford

Nick Mitchell, Oregon State, 78.2%

  • 19 – 35, 204 yards, 1 TD, 40 rush yards @ Utah

In a primetime game where his opponent was dead set on stopping the running attack, Notre Dame’s Deshone Kizer was brilliant against Temple. Without looking, I can’t recall (m)any other major program quarterbacks accounting for such a high percentage of their offense in a single game… Patrick Mahomes and that Texas Tech offense are so much fun. He’s AVERAGING more than 400 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns per game… What could have been for Luke Falk? I expected his Wazzu team to be outmanned by Stanford, but ultimately it was their red zone futility on offense that cost them, kicking six field goals and ultimately losing by two points.

Seasonal QB Leaders

Luke Falk, Washington State, 79.5% of team’s offensive yards

  • 6’4, 205lbs, Sophomore

Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State, 76.8%

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 76.7%

  • 6’0, 211lbs, Freshman

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 74.7%

  • 6’3, 227lbs, Junior

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 73.3%

  • 6’0, 219lbs, Senior

Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut, 71.6%

  • 6’2, 220lbs, Sophomore

Trevone Boykin, TCU, 70.0%

  • 6’2, 205lbs, Senior

Alex McGough, FIU, 69.4%

  • 6’3, 218lbs, Sophomore

Jeff Driskel, Louisiana Tech, 69.2%

  • 6’4, 231lbs, Senior

Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky, 68.9%

  • 6’3, 220lbs, Senior

Trevone Boykin is incredible. Last week, for the third straight game, he lead the team in passing AND rushing. He almost perfectly fits the historical Heisman prototype for dual-threat quarterbacks… Jeff Driskel is an interesting case. Once upon a time he was the #1 quarterback recruit in America and lead the 2012 Florida Gators to the Sugar Bowl. Now at Louisiana Tech, he has the size and production to make a push into the back half of the NFL Draft.

Running Backs of the week

Brian Hill, Wyoming, 56.9% of team’s offensive yards

  • 26 carries, 201 yards, 1 TD @ Utah State

Ralph Webb, Vanderbilt, 55.1%

  • 26 carries, 99 yards, 3 rec. yards @ Houston

Arkeel Newsome, Connecticut, 54.5%

  • 25 carries, 179 yards, 2 TD, 41 rec. yards, 24 ret. yards vs ECU

Dontrell Hilliard, Tulane, 48.1%

  • 19 carries, 97 yards, 2 TD, 33 rec. yards @ Memphis

Alex Gardner, FIU, 45.8%

  • 20 carries, 105 yards, 15 rec. yards @ Florida Atlantic

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 44.2%

  • 26 carries, 136 yards, 15 rec. yards vs Western Kentucky

Elijhaa Penny, Idaho, 43.9%

  • 35 carries, 192 yards, 2 TD, 58 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ NMSU

Josh Hicks, Rutgers, 43.6%

  • 15 carries, 72 yards @ Wisconsin

Robert Lowe, Texas State, 43.2%

  • 20 carries, 91 yards @ Georgia Southern

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 42.6%

  • 22 carries, 107 yards, 26 rec. yards, 3 ret. yards @ Wash State

This is the second straight appearance for Texas State’s Robert Lowe. The 5’10 195lb senior could be an interesting name in draft season… Elijhaa Penny is exactly the type of player I’m trying to find with this exercise. The 6’2 234lb senior has 17 touchdowns in the last season and a half and could be a sneaky prospect… Brian Hill just posted his third 200 yard game of the season. He and Leonard Fournette are the only players in the country to accomplish that feat.

Seasonal RB Leaders

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 43.2% of team’s offensive yards

  • 6’1, 230lbs, Sophomore

Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 42.3%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Senior

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 41.3%

  • 5’11, 202lbs, Sophomore

Devontae Booker, Utah, 41.0%

  • 6’1, 212lbs, Senior

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 40.8%

  • 5’9, 180lbs, Junior

Jahad Thomas, Temple, 40.8%

  • 5’10, 180lbs, Junior

Brian Hill, Wyoming, 40.2%

  • 6’1, 211lbs, Sophomore

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 39.2%

  • 6’0, 201lbs, Sophomore

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 38.6%

  • 5’10, 201lbs, Sophomore

Larry Rose III, New Mexico State, 38.1%

  • 5’11, 184lbs, Sophomore

Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State, 34.7%

  • 6’0, 225lbs, Junior

Leonard Fournette, your table is ready. It should be fascinating to see him go up against Alabama this weekend… I got asked about Donnel Pumphrey on the Sports Illustrated NFL Draft podcast this week. Be sure to check that out for my discussion with Chris Burke on the SDSU runner… Even though he was on a bye last week, Ezekiel Elliott’s Heisman chances got a boost with another change to his quarterback situation. In what has become a surprisingly turbulent season for the OSU offense, Elliott has been the one consistent force.

Wide Receivers of the Week

Jamal Robinson, Louisiana-Lafayette, 84.4% of team’s receiving yards

  • 4 receptions, 92 yards, 1 TD vs Louisiana-Monroe

Latevius Rayford, Vanderbilt, 84.1%

  • 3 rec., 37 yards @ Houston

Antonio Callaway, Florida, 71.0%

  • 3 rec., 110 yards, 1 TD vs Georgia

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 69.2%

  • 6 rec., 72 yards vs UTSA

Ryan Longoria, Georgia Southern, 67.7%

  • 2 rec., 21 yards vs Texas State

Justin Hobbs, Tulsa, 62.5%

  • 7 rec., 150 yards @ SMU

Isaiah Jones, East Carolina, 62%

  • 9 rec., 85 yards @ UConn

Carlton Agudosi, Rutgers, 59.8%

  • 1 rec, 49 yards @ Wisconsin

Tre’Quan Smith, UCF, 58.4%

  • 5 rec., 59 yards @ Cincinnati

KeVonn Mabon, Ball State, 54.5%

  • 6 rec., 150 yards vs UMass

Travis Rudolph, Florida State, 54%

  • 5 rec,. 191 yards, 3 TD vs Syracuse

KeVonn Mabon showed up in this space recently for his outstanding special teams performance and this week he had a big receiving game. Only a junior, Mabon’s 6’1 219lb frame and intriguing playmaking ability have put him on my radar… Florida State’s Travis Rudolph was the #1 receiver recruit in 2014. Interestingly, it took the backup quarterback to get him going. The Noles desperately need someone to take pressure off Dalvin Cook, if they are to beat Clemson; Rudolph could be arriving at the right time.

Seasonal WR Leaders

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 47.2% of receiving yards

  • 5’10, 175lbs, Senior

Tanner Gentry, Wyoming, 43.6%

  • 6’2, 201lbs, Junior

Daniel Braverman, Western Michigan, 43.2%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Junior

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 42.8%

  • 5’8, 185lbs, Senior

Leonte Carroo, Rutgers, 42.7%

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Pharoh Cooper, South Carolina, 40.9%

  • 5’11, 207lbs, Junior

Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh, 40.4%

  • 6’2, 200lbs, Junior

Josh Doctson, TCU, 40.1%

  • 6’3, 195lbs, Senior

Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 40.1%

  • 6’1, 208lbs, Senior

Tajae Sharpe, UMass, 39.8%

  • 6’3, 188lbs, Senior

Corey Coleman, Baylor, 39.5%

  • 5’11, 190lbs, Junior

It’s funny how things work themselves out over time. As far as I can tell, the seven guys from Carroo down are among the 10 best wide receiver prospects eligible for the 2016 NFL Draft.

Service Academy footnotes: Jamir Tillman (55.2%, Navy), Garrett Brown (49.7%, Air Force)

Jerome Lane footnotes: 31.0% of Akron’s yards

Tight Ends of the week

Akil Dan-Fodio, FIU, 36.2% of receiving yards

  • 4 receptions, 71 yards @ Florida Atlantic

Brandon Lingen, Minnesota, 35%

  • 5 rec., 111 yards vs Michigan

David Grinnage, NC State, 32.3%

  • 7 rec., 82 yards, 1 TD vs Clemson

Ryan Carden, Texas State, 31%

  • 5 rec., 27 yards @ Georgia Southern

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 29.1%

  • 8 rec., 74 yards, 1 TD, 6 rush 65 rush yards, 1 rush TD vs Clemson

Evan Butts, Virginia, 27.4%

  • 4 rec., 48 yards vs Georgia Tech

Josh Parris, Syracuse, 26.9%

  • 4 rec., 35 yards vs Florida State

Andrew Beck, Texas, 25.9%

  • 1 rec., 22 yards @ Iowa State

Troy Fumagli, Wisconsin, 25.3%

  • 3 rec,. 55 yards vs Rutgers

Trent “Buck” Cowan, Idaho, 24.1%

  • 3 rec., 74 yards @ NMSU

Jake Butt, Michigan, 22.5%

  • 4 rec, 38 yards @ Minnesota

Buck Cowan makes his second-straight appearance here. More of an oversized receiver than a tight end, the junior combines with WR Dezmon Epps, RB Elijhaa Penny and QB Matt Linehan to form a solid core of skill players for the Vandals. Too bad they’re unlikely to miss a bowl, or it could be fun to see them go against a bigger program… Jake Butt continues to be solid in the receiving game, but allergic to the end zone. How does such a good player have only one touchdown this season?… NC State’s David Grinnage is a guy I wrote about last December as a potentially interesting prospect. This is the first game in 2015 in which he’s caught multiple passes or found the end zone. At 6’5 265lbs, he has a lot of promise, but not much production at this point.

Seasonal TE Leaders

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 25.9% of team’s receiving yards

  • 5’11, 236lbs, Sophomore

David Morgan II, UTSA, 24.8%

  • 6’4, 260lbs, Senior

Gerald Everett, South Alabama, 24.5%

  • 6’4, 225lbs, Junior

Dan Vitale, Northwestern, 23.7%

  • 6’2, 235lbs, Senior

Rodney Mills, UMass, 23.3%

  • 6’1, 205lbs, Senior

Bucky Hodges, Virginia Tech, 22.4%

  • 6’7, 241lbs, R-Sophomore

Jake Butt, Michigan, 21.5%

  • 6’6, 248lbs, Junior

Matt Weiser, Buffalo, 21.3%

  • 6’5, 255lbs, Senior

Reece White, New Mexico, 20.4%

  • 6’1, 225lbs, Senior

Austin Hooper, Stanford, 20.1%

  • 6’4, 248lbs, Junior

Cam Serigne, Wake Forest, 20.2%

  • 6’3, 245lbs, Sophomore

Similar to the wide receiver position, it’s fun to see many of the tight ends who were thought were the best coming into the season actually rise to the top. I’m looking at you Austin Hooper, Jake Butt, Cam Serigne, and Bucky Hodges.

Special Teams Studs of the week

Keelan Ewaliko, Hawaii, WR, 212 return yards, 1 TD vs Air Force

Charles Nelson, Oregon, WR, 185 ret. yards, 1 TD @ Arizona state

Marquan Greene, Georgia State, WR, 169 ret. yards, 1 TD @ Arkansas State

Jakeem Grant, Texas Tech, WR, 177 ret. yards, 1 TD, 13 rec., 178 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Oklahoma State

Derek Keaton, Georgia Southern, WR, 144 ret. yards @ Navy

Rodney Adams, South Florida, WR, 139 ret. yards, 1 TD, 3 rec., 86 rec. yards

Nyheim Hines, NC State, WR, 135 ret. yards, 1 TD, 2 rec., 26 rec. yards vs Clemson

Blake Banham, Eastern Michigan, RB, 135 ret. yards vs Western Michigan

Marques Little, Old Dominion, WR, 130 ret. yards, 21 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD, 14 rush yards vs Western Kentucky

Braeden West, SMU, RB, 111 ret. yards, 11 rush yards vs Tulsa

Jakeem Grant is here again. Even though he’s miniature, he is exactly the reason we pay attention to special teams: because there is hidden value in finding dynamic all-purpose players.

Seasonal Special Teams Leaders

Janarion Grant, WR, Rutgers, 89.0 return yds/g

  • 5’11, 170lbs, Junior

Brett Winnegan, RB, UTSA, 87.6

  • 5’9, 185lbs, Freshman

Brisly Estime, WR, Syracuse, 82.5

  • 5’9, 178lbs, Junior

Jakeem Grant, WR, Texas Tech, 80.9

  • 5’7, 168lbs, Senior

Tim White, WR, Arizona State, 80.9

  • 5’11, 185lbs, Junior

Maurice Thomas, RB, Miami OH, 78.2

  • 5’11, 176lb, Freshman

Derek Keaton, Georgia Southern, 78.0

  • 5’11, 185lbs, Senior

Devin Fuller, WR, UCLA, 77.4

  • 6’0, 200lbs Senior

Nyheim Hines, WR, NC State, 75.1

  • 5’9, 190lbs, Freshman

Diontae Johnson, WR, Toledo, 74.2

  • 5’11, 175lbs, Freshman

Again with Jakeem Grant… I wonder if he’s related to Janarion Grant?

The College Football Market Share Report – Week 7 Recap

Welcome back to the college football market share report. You should know the deal by now, but if not, this is me taking a statistical approach to finding college football’s top workhorses based on their market share of their team’s yards.

How you might want to interact with this article:
1) Skim the dense parts and read the summaries at the end of each section
2) Find rockstar performances and focus on those in your film-watching endeavors
3) Leave a comment so I can make this content even more beneficial to you

Finally, if you are introduced to any new players through this article, and you end up writing about them, please link back to this work. Thanks!

Quarterbacks of the week

Treon Harris, Florida, 89.3% of team’s offensive yards

  • 17 – 32, 271 yards, 2 TD, 20 rush yards @ LSU

Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State, 88.5%

  • 28 – 38, 412 yards, 1 TD, 2 rush TD @ Ball State

Cody Clements, South Alabama, 88.1%

  • 18 – 33, 273 yards, 3 TD, 3 INT vs Arkansas State

Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut, 88.1%

  • 28 – 41, 365 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 100 rush yards, 1 rush TD vs South Florida

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State, 86.6%

  • 30 – 43, 347 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 34 rush yards, 1 rush TD vs La Tech

Deshaun Watson, Clemson, 85%

  • 27 – 41, 420 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT, 32 rush yards, 2 rush TD vs Boston College

Lamar Jackson, Louisville, 83.5%

  • 20 – 35, 307 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 32 rush yards @ Florida State

Trevone Boykin, TCU, 82.1%

  • 27 – 32, 436 yards, 4 TD, 74 rush yards, 1 rush TD @ Iowa State

Mitch Leidner, Minnesota, 82%

  • 26 – 40, 301 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 1 rush TD vs Nebraska

DaMarcus Smith, North Texas, 81.2%

  • 17 – 35, 228 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT, 122 rush yards vs WKU

To the extent that people were worried about Treon Harris being a liability to the previously-undefeated Gators, he held up his end of the bargain at LSU last weekend. If the rest of his team would have averaged more than two yards per carry, the Gators might still be undefeated. If he can play anywhere near as good from here on out, Florida will remain in the national championship hunt… For as much as everyone was on his bandwagon last year, Dak Prescott has been even more impressive. The team is down a little bit, but it’s possible that nobody plays LSU closer than they did (19-21 loss) for the rest of the year… Entering the year as one of the top breakout candidates in the nation, Clemson’s Deshaun Watson has been relatively quiet in leading the Tigers to an undefeated start. After his first real “wow” game last weekend, and with the schedule picking up, I wonder if he doesn’t start building some buzz in the next few weeks… Trevone Boykin is amazing.

Seasonal QB Leaders

Luke Falk, Washington State, 78.7% of team’s offensive yards

  • 6’4, 205lbs, Sophomore

Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State, 76.8%

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut, 76.4%

  • 6’2, 220lbs, Sophomore

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 74.3%

  • 6’0, 211lbs, Freshman

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 73.6%

  • 6’3, 227lbs, Junior

Matt Davis, SMU, 73%

  • 6’0, 212lbs, Junior

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 72.5%

  • 6’0, 219lbs, Senior

Matt Linehan, Idaho, 71.7%

  • 6’3, 214lbs, Sophomore

Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky, 70.7%

  • 6’3, 220lbs, Senior

Chuckie Keeton, Utah State, 69.8%

  • 6’2, 210lbs, Senior

Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma, 69.6%

  • 6’1, 209lbs, Junior

I’m honestly not sure what else to say about this quarterback cohort at this point. If there’s one name on the list that keeps standing out to me, it’s Luke Falk from Wazzu. He’s been outstanding the past two weeks as the Cougars have emerged as a Pac 12 North contender. They get Stanford at home on October 31 and could legitimately win the North with a victory in that contest.

Running Backs of the week

Derrick Henry, Alabama, 64.1% of team’s offensive yards

  • 32 carries, 236 yards, 2 TD, 18 rec. yards @ Texas A&M

Jahad Thomas, Temple, 62%

  • 31 carries, 199 yards, 3 TD, 25 rec. yards vs UCF

Saquon Barkley, Penn State, 61.6%

  • 26 carries, 194 yards @ Ohio State

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 56.1%

  • 25 carries, 243 yards, 4 TD, 4 rec. yards, 122 ret. yards vs UCLA

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 54.9%

  • 20 carries, 152 yards, 1 TD, 55 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ SJSU

Malik Roberson, San Jose State, 54.1%

  • 5 carries, 41 yards, 39 rec. yards vs SDSU

C.J. Jones, UCF, 48.5%

  • 19 carries, 37 yards, 28 rec. yards @ Temple

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 46.1%

  • 31 carries, 180 yards, 2 TD, 15 rec. yards vs Florida

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 43.7%

  • 22 carries, 163 yards, 2 TD, 60 rec. yards vs Louisville

Raekwon James, Kent State, 43.1%

  • 20 carries, 85 yards, 56 rec. yards, 41 ret. yards @ UMass

For as much hype as he gets, this is Derrick Henry’s first truly elite performance of the year. Interestingly, since a strong start in week 1, he’s alternated good games with underwhelming games every week… Penn State freshman Saquon Barkley had a remarkable game against Ohio State. He’s a 220lb, 18 year old who is absolutely ballin’ this year. He should be a target in everyone’s devy leagues… Christian McCaffrey says “can you hear me now?” I’ve written about him before in this space, but his value to the Stanford team cannot be overstated; HE DOES EVERYTHING for them… Leonard Fournette is still awesome, but I made the case on the most recent RotoViz College Football Show that Dalvin Cook is more valuable to his team. Both need to be in New York City for the Heisman ceremony.

Seasonal RB Leaders

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 45.5% of team’s offensive yards

  • 6’1, 230lbs, Sophomore

Jahad Thomas, Temple, 44.6%

  • 5’10, 180lbs, Junior

Devontae Booker, Utah, 42.7%

  • 6’1, 212lbs, Senior

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 41.4%

  • 5’9, 180lbs, Junior

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 40.6%

  • 5’11, 202lbs, Sophomore

Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 40%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Senior

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 38.6%

  • 5’10, 201lbs, Sophomore

Brian Hill, Wyoming, 37.8%

  • 6’1, 211lbs, Sophomore

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 37.6%

  • 6’0, 201lbs, Sophomore

Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State, 35.1%

  • 6’0, 225lbs, Junior

Saquon Barkley (SQBK), Penn State, 34.7%

  • 5’11, 22lbs, Freshman

In this week’s ESPN.com Heisman Watch poll they had Devontae Booker with only one (fifth-place) vote. Fournette, Zeke, Dalvin, Derrick Henry, and McCaffrey were all ahead of him, which I mostly “get”, but I find it reeeaaally hard to make a case that Henry has been more important for his team than Booker. So frustrating that as soon as any pre-hyped Alabama player flashes, everyone runs right back to that… If you want to talk about a dark-horse name, try out Jahad Thomas from Temple. I think there’s a real chance they could run the table, which would include wins against ranked teams Notre Dame and Memphis. If they do, don’t be surprised if Thomas sneaks into the bottom of the final Heisman voting results. October 31 vs Notre Dame is everything for him and that team… Zeke Elliott and Fournette remain the only two college backs to surpass 100 rush yards in every game this season.

Wide Receivers of the week

Chris Godwin, Penn State, 85.8% of team’s receiving yards

  • 3 receptions, 103 yards @ Ohio State

Kody Cook, Kansas State, 84.4%

  • 2 rec., 38 yards, 19 rush yards, 6 pass yards vs Oklahoma

Rodney Adams, South Florida, 63.4%

  • 5 rec., 118 yards, 3 TD @ UConn

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 63.3%

  • 10 rec., 131 yards, 6 ret. yards @ Troy

Zach Pascal, Old Dominion, 62.9%

  • 11 rec., 231 yards, 3 TD, 69 ret. yards vs Charlotte

Ricardo Louis, Auburn, 60.4%

  • 7 rec., 154 yards @ Kentucky

Pharoh Cooper, South Carolina, 58.8%

  • 7 rec., 160 yards, 1 TD, 4 ret. yards vs Vanderbilt

Devon Breaux, Tulane, 58.7%

  • 3 rec., 88 yards vs Houston

Dylan Collie, Hawaii, 57.9%

  • 7 rec., 113 yards, 1 TD @ New Mexico

Malachi Dupre, LSU, 56.9%

  • 4 rec., 115 yards, 2 TD vs Florida

In Auburn’s first game without their overhyped, overaged, dismissed receiver, Ricardo Louis had a phenomenal showing against Kentucky. The 6’2 215lb senior has hardly been a dominant force during his career, but he’s had an interesting mix of rushing and receiving production and could be an interesting name to monitor down the home stretch… Pharoh Cooper is a name more people need to know. With Spurrier out at South Carolina, it wouldn’t surprise me if third-year junior Cooper entered the draft after this season. He’s played five SEC opponents this year and four times has caught at least seven passes for 100+ yards. With rushing and return ability too, he’s a sure-thing top 100 pick in my eyes… If Malachi Dupre can string together a few more 100 yard receiving games for LSU, I’m not sure they’ll lose this season with the way Fournette is mauling in the ground game.

Service Academy footnotes: Edgar Poe (Army, 87.7%)

Seasonal WR Leaders

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 51.2% of team’s receiving yards

  • 5’10, 175lbs, Senior

BJ Johnson, Georgia Southern, 50.4%

  • 6’1, 212lbs, Junior

Daniel Braverman, Western Michigan, 46%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Junior

Pharoh Cooper, South Carolina, 45.3%

  • 5’11, 207lbs, Junior

Leonte Carroo, Rutgers, 45.1%

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 44.3%

  • 5’8, 185lbs, Senior

Tanner Gentry, Wyoming, 43.6%

  • 6’2, 201lbs, Junior

Dameon Gamblin, New Mexico, 43.5%

  • 5’10, 174lbs, Junior

Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh, 42.6%

  • 6’2, 200lbs, Junior

Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 42%

  • 6’1, 208lbs, Senior

Leonte Carroo DGAF about anything. He’s played in four games this year and has three three-touchdown games. He plays Ohio State this weekend… Tyler Boyd, welcome back… Aaron Burbridge vs Michigan’s Jourdan Lewis last weekend was one of the most entertaining college WR-CB matchups I’ve seen in a while. Burbridge now has five 100+ yard efforts in seven games, but has only found the endzone in two contests.

Service Academy footnotes: Jamir Tillman (Navy, 66.5%), Garrett Brown (Air Force, 56.2%)

Jerome Lane (Akron) footnotes: 32.1%

Tight Ends of the week

Rodney Mills, UMass, 56.1% of team’s receiving yards

  • 4 rec., 96 yards vs Kent State

Reece White, New Mexico, 36.9%

  • 3 rec., 72 yards vs Hawaii

Cody Tuttle, Eastern Michigan, 34.1%

  • 8 rec., 60 yards @ Toledo

Steven Scheu, Vanderbilt, 33.3%

  • 6 rec., 59 yards @ South Carolina

Cam Serigne, Wake Forest, 33%

  • 6 rec., 65 yards, 1 TD @ UNC

Austin Hooper, Stanford, 32.1%

  • 3 rec., 42 yards, 1 TD vs UCLA

Alec Bloom, Connecticut, 26.6%

  • 5 rec., 97 yards vs USF

O.J. Howard, Alabama, 25.4%

  • 3 rec., 35 yards @ Texas A&M

Jonnu Smith, FIU, 23.8%

  • 5 rec., 62 yards @ MTSU

Sam Browning, Eastern Michigan, 23.3%

  • 2 rec,. 41 yards, 22 rush yards @ Toledo

Vandbilt’s Steven Scheu might be a TE prospect to keep an eye on. The senior currently has 867 receiving yards for his career. If you look at BCS/Power 5 conference tight ends who have 1,000 career receiving yards and are at least 6’4, history says about 75% (36 of 48 since 2005) of guys fitting that profile will get drafted… O.J. Howard, good to see you. After three years of hype, I’m glad to know that you actually have an ounce of production to go along with the buzz… And welcome back, Jonnu Smith. Jonnu was one of my most precocious tight ends a few years back and has been up and down since.

Seasonal TE Leaders

Rodney Mills, UMass, 28.6% of team’s receiving yards

  • 6’1, 205lbs, Senior

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 28%

  • 5’11, 236lbs, Sophomore

David Morgan II, UTSA, 27%

  • 6’4, 260lbs, Senior

Gerald Everett, South Alabama, 25.7%

  • 6’4, 225lbs, Junior

Scott Orndoff, Pittsburgh, 24.1%

  • 6’5, 265lbs, Junior

Dan Vitale, Northwestern, 22.4%

  • 6’2, 235lbs, Senior

Cam Serigne, Wake Forest, 21.4%

  • 6’3, 245lbs, Sophomore

Jake Butt, Michigan, 21.3%

  • 6’6, 248lbs, Junior

Elkanah Dillon, South Florida, 21.1%

  • 6’5, 245lbs, Freshman

Matt Weiser, Buffalo, 21.1%

  • 6’5, 255lbs, Senior

Austin Hooper, Stanford, 20.8%

  • 6’4, 248lbs, Junior

Honestly, I have no idea why 6’0 205lb Rodney Smith is listed as a TE, but he is listed like that everywhere… Dan Vitale is a new name on this list. He’s technically a “super back” a.k.a an “H-Back” a.k.a. an undersized, “move” tight end, so I think he may have got lost in the positional shuffle before. With a career stat line of 120-1293-9, he could end up being a Charles Clay-like prospect if he’s got some athleticism… Austin Hooper is good to see on this list. He’s carrying the Stanford TE mantle and is one of the better prospects at that position.

Special Teams Studs of the week

Shelton Gibson, WR, West Virginia, 185 ret. yards, 1 ret. TD, 92 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Baylor

Demarcus Ayers, WR, Houston, 175 ret. yards, 1 ret. TD, 93 rec. yards, 15 rush yards, 1 rush TD @ Tulane

Tim White, WR, Arizona State, 169 ret. yards, 1 ret. TD, 25 rec. yards @ Utah

C.J. Sanders, WR, Notre Dame, 160 ret. yards vs USC

Brett Winnegan, RB, UTSA, 138 ret. yards @ So. Miss

Bralon Addison, WR, Oregon, 136 ret. yards, 78 rec. yards, 15 rush yards @ Washington

Jabrill Peppers, RB/DB, Michigan, 129 ret. yards, 35 rec. yards vs Michigan State

Donovan Lee, WR, Colorado, 129 ret. yards, 5 rec. yards, 4 rush yards vs Arizona

Devin Fuller, WR, UCLA, 128 ret. yards, 44 rec. yards @ Stanford

Victor Bolden, WR, Oregon State, 125 ret. yards, 1 ret. TD, 79 rec. yards, 8 rush yards @ Washington State

Shelton Gibson (WVU) is a problem. The next in a line of Mountaineer receivers that includes Tavon Austin, Stedman Bailey and Kevin White, Gibson made a few plays over the weekend that made me shake my head. Kid can fly!… Jabrill Peppers was a highly touted RB/DB recruit, but has mostly played on defense throughout his career. It looks like Harbaugh has reached the point of “he’s too talented to ever be on the sideline” so he’s been getting special teams and offensive touches lately too. If Harbaugh thinks he’s that good, then I am intrigued… Fill it up, Victor Bolden!

FYI, I include a section for special teams stats because my research has shown that there is hidden value in special teams performers.

Seasonal Special Teams Leaders

Byron Marshall, WR, Oregon, 96.3 return yards/g

  • 5’10, 205lbs, Senior

Brandon Smith, WR, Texas State, 93.2

  • 6’2, 170lbs, Senior

Brisly Estime, WR, Syracuse, 91.3

  • 5’9, 178lbs, Junior

Janarion Grant, WR, Rutgers, 90.3

  • 5’11, 170lbs, Junior

Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M, 88

  • 5’11, 200lbs, Freshman

Devin Fuller, WR, UCLA, 87

  • 6’0, 200lbs Senior

Brett Winnegan, RB, UTSA, 86

  • 5’9, 185lbs, Freshman

Tim White, WR, Arizona State, 85.5

  • 5’11, 185lbs, Junior

Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford, 83.7

  • 6’0, 201lbs, Sophomore

Maurice Thomas, RB, Miami OH, 79.7

  • 5’11, 176lbs, Freshman

This is your weekly reminder: Christian Kirk is downright ridiculous!

Final thought – would you check out the new RotoViz College Football Podcast and make sure you’re subscribing to the RotoViz Radio feed on iTunes?

(cover photo credit to PennStateLive on Flickr)

The College Football Market Share Report – Week 4 Recap

Welcome to the College Football Market Share Report, where each week I’ll be running through the players who are shouldering an exceptional percentage of their team’s offense AND defense. Yes, this week I’ve added three defensive metrics to the conversation. I also, separated out the Tight End group, so we can start monitoring them.

In the past, my prospect analysis has typically waited until after the season to get going, but by tracking these stats on a weekly basis in season we can more easily identify exceptional talents before everyone else does.

Note that the commentary below will highlight the most recent week’s top performers as well as seasonal leaders. Also, since this is somewhat of an experimental article, I’m going to ask for your feedback on how this should evolve moving forward, so feel free to leave a comment.

Be warned that this article is dense with numbers. I’d recommend skimming through the names and then checking out the blurbs at the bottom of each section.

**Finally, if you are introduced to any new players through this article, and you end up writing about them, please link back to this work. Thanks!**

Quarterbacks of the week

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss, 92.1% of offensive yards

447 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, -25 rush yards @ Nebraska

Ryan Metz, UTEP, 90.2%

275 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 46 rush yards vs Incarnate Word

Cameron Coffman, Wyoming, 87.7%

366 pass yards, 4 TD, 2 INT, -8 rush yards vs New Mexico

Alex McGough, FIU, 87.7%

263 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 7 rush yards @ Louisiana Tech

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State, 87.1%

270 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 14 rush yards @ Auburn

Kyle Allen, Texas A&M, 85.8%

358 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 5 rush yards @ Arkansas

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 85.3%

402 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 58 rush yards @ Purdue

David Blough, Purdue, 84.5%

340 pass yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 11 rush yards, 1 rush TD vs BG

Cody Kessler, USC, 83.7%

375 pass yards, 5 TD, 1 INT, 6 rush yards @ Arizona State

Brenden Motley, Virginia Tech, 83.4%

281 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 85 rush yards, 1 rush TD @ ECU

For as much buzz as Dak Prescott got last year, it feels like he’s under-appreciated this year, despite posting nearly as impressive numbers through four games… Let’s just appreciate BG’s Matt Johnson for a moment; he’s thrown for 400 yards in each game this season, including three road contests against Power-5 foes (@Tennessee, @Maryland, @Purdue). He won two of those games.

QB Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Offensive Yards

Luke Falk, Washington State, 80.5%

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 79.3%

Brandon Doughty, WKU, 78.0%

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 77.0%

Cameron Coffman, Wyoming, 76.7%

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 76.5%

Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut, 75.2%

Matt Lineham, Idaho, 73.9%

Matt Davis, SMU, 73.3%

Johnny McCrary, Vanderbilt, 72.9%

Last week I got a question about “what’s a good market share for quarterbacks?” To be honest, at this point, the metric is more descriptive than predictive, but that doesn’t make it any less interesting in my opinion. Here are how recent Heisman-winning quarterbacks faired in this metric in their trophy-claiming campaign.

Robert Griffin III (2011) – 65.4%

Johnny Manziel (2012) – 70.5%

Jameis Winston (2013) – 58.8%

Marcus Mariota (2014) – 63.7%

Obviously none of the players included in this week’s leaderboard is in the Heisman conversation (or on a team good enough to get them the national spotlight) but it’s something to keep an eye on. For what it’s worth, TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin is at 65.2% so far.

Running backs of the week

Kalif Phillips, Charlotte, 80.1% of team’s offensive yards

165 rush yards vs Florida Atlantic

Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 63.5%

300 rush yards, 3 rush TD, 4 rec. 45 rec. yards vs Fresno State

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 59.1%

244 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 1 rec., 7 rec. yards @ Syracuse

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 50.0%

206 rush yards, 1 rec., 38 rec. yards, 59 ret. yards @ Oregon State

Dwayne Washington, Washington, 49.4%

109 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 3 rec., 19 rec. yards vs Cal

Tony Pittman, Marshall, 48.7%

129 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 1 rec., 6 rec. yards @ Kent State

James Butler, Nevada, 46.7%

177 rush yards, 1 rush TD @ Buffalo

Greg Howell, Florida Atlantic, 44.6%

56 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 1 rec., 19 rec. yards @ Charlotte

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 44.2%

56 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 4 rec., 51 rec. yards @ Penn State

Kenneth Dixon, Louisiana Tech, 40.7%

169 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 1 rec., 23 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs FIU

More on Leonard Fournette in a moment, but how about SJSU’s Tyler Ervin and SDSU’s Donnel Pumphrey? Both backs are making their second consecutive appearance on this list and have been prolific undersized workhorses… And shoutout to Christian McCaffrey for being the #4 workhorse RB of the week while also contributing 59 return yards in the Cardinal’s road victory over Oregon State.

RB Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Offensive Yards

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 51.9%

Aaron Jones, UTEP, 51.0%

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 45.7%

Jahad Thomas, Temple, 44.6%

Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 43.4%

Devontae Booker, Utah, 39.2%

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 38.1%

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 38.0%

Demario Richard, Arizona State, 35.6%

Jordan Howard, Indiana, 35.6%

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 35.6%

Leonard Fournette has accounted for 51.9% of LSU’s offense so far. By comparison, the last two running backs to win the Heisman accounted for the following: Reggie Bush ’05 (32.7%)  Mark Ingram ’09 (35.3%)… Keep an eye on Indiana RB Jordan Howard, who was a stud at UAB before transfering to the Hoosier program to take over the role vacated by Tevin Coleman. He takes on Ohio State this week in a game that very well might feature the two best draft-eligible RBs in America.

Receivers of the week

Jordan Williams, Ball State, 74.7% of team’s receiving yards

8 receptions, 133 rec. yards, 2 rec. TD @ Northwestern

BJ Johnson, Georgia Southern, 73.2%

4 receptions, 93 rec. yards @ Idaho

Daniel Braverman, Western Michigan, 72.8%

10 receptions, 123 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Ohio State

Drew Morgan, Arkansas, 68.9%

8 receptions, 155 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Texas A&M

DeAndre Ball, Army, 68.4%

2 receptions, 67 rec. yards @ Eastern Michigan

Ricky Jeune, Georgia Tech, 63.6%

4 receptions, 91 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Duke

Carlos Wiggins, New Mexico, 59.8%

1 reception, 64 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Wyoming

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 58.1%

8 receptions, 165 rec. yards, 2 rec. TD vs Georgia Southern

KeeSean Johnson, Fresno State, 56.6%

7 receptions, 90 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ SJSU

Quinton Pedroza, Hawaii, 55.8%

10 receptions, 134 rec. yards, 0 rec. TD @ WIsconsin

On a weekend when two of my absolute favorite WR prospects, (Tajae Sharpe and Corey Davis, both from the MAC) got their time in the national spotlight, it was Ball State’s Jordan Williams who had the show-stealing performance. He’s not quite Tajae or Corey, but he’s the biggest of the trio and has enjoyed a rock-solid career… Shoutout to Arkansas WR Drew Morgan who came through with a huge game in the absence of top target Keon Hatcher.

WR Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Receiving Yards

Jamir Tillman, Navy, 65.5%

Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh, 55.5%

Dameon Gamblin, New Mexico, 51.2%

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 50.7%

BJ Johnson, Georgia Southern, 50.4%

Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 48.3%

Jordan Villamin, Oregon State, 46.6%

Will Fuller, Notre Dame, 46.0%

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 45.7%

Bryan Holmes, Troy, 45.7%

Say hello to Oregon State WR Jordan Villamin, who is a new arrival on this leaderboard. The 6’5 230lb redshirt sophomore (20 years old) is starting to look a lot like a Mike Evans-ish prospect. If you can add him now in a devy league, I would. The kid’s stock is going to skyrocket as the country wakes up to him… And when I say “wake up”, I mean that literally; many of Oregon State’s games finish well after midnight on the east coast.

Tight Ends of the week

Matt Weiser, Buffalo, 38.8% of team’s receiving yards

10 receptions, 131 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Nevada

Ryan Yurachek, Marshall, 38.4%

4 receptions, 58 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Kent State

Joshua Perkins, Washington, 36.2%

5 receptions, 55 rec. yards vs Cal

Ethan Wolf, Tennessee, 33.3%

4 receptions, 55 rec. yards @ Florida

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 32.8%

5 receptions, 84 rec. yards, 2 rec. TD, 2 rushes, 28 rush yards @ South Alabama

Austin Hooper, Stanford, 30.7%

2 receptions, 50 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Oregon State

Steven Scheu, Vanderbilt, 29.4%

5 receptions, 57 rec. yards @ Ole Miss

Hayden Plinke, UTEP, 29.1%

4 receptions, 80 rec. yards vs Incarnate Word

Cam Serigne, Wake Forest, 27.3%

5 receptions, 72 rec. yards, 1 pass attempt vs Indiana

Bucky Hodges, Virginia Tech, 26.0%

5 receptions, 73 rec. yards @ ECU

Honestly, I don’t know very much about this crew except for Hodges and Serigne. The one name that stands out though is Matt Weiser. For one, college tight ends almost never catch 10 passes in a game unless their name is Jace Amaro or Dennis Pitta. Also, homie is 6’5 255lbs, so there’s some meat on those bones.

TE Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Receiving Yards

Gerald Everett, South Alabama, 31.1%

David Morgan II, UTSA, 26.2%

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 25.6%

Ben McCord, Central Michigan, 23.9%

Jake Butt, Michigan, 22.3%

Tyler Higbee, WKU, 22.2%

C.J. Conrad, Kentucky, 22.1%

Hayden Plinke, UTEP, 21.3%

Jerell Adams, South Carolina, 21.0%

Chris Loving, North Texas, 20.9%

If there’s an early front runner to be my top-rated TE for the 2016 draft, it’s Jake Butt. Under Harbaugh, Stanford churned out a series of solid NFL prospects and Harbaugh now appears to be working the same mojo on Michigan’s TE. Listed at 6’6 248lbs, Butt has a strong combination of production, size and pro-style experience…Jaylen Samuels interested me at first, but then I realized he’s only 5’11 and is more of an H-back.

Special Teams Studs of the week

Olamide Zaccheaus, RB, Virginia, 231 return yards vs Boise

J.D. McKissic, WR, Arkansas State, 211 @ Toledo

Brisly Estime, WR, Syracuse, 202 vs LSU

Byron Marshall, WR, Oregon, 178 vs Utah

DeAndre Reaves, WR, Marshall, 170 @ Kent State

Austin Waller, RB, Rice, 140 @ Baylor

Daje Johnson, WR, Texas, 137 vs Oklahoma State

Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State, 137 @ Penn State

Jae’Lon Oglesby, RB, Memphis, 132 vs Cincinnati

Aregeros Turner, WR, Northern Illinois, 117 @ BC

Earlier this year at Rotoviz I wrote about the hidden value of special teams stats for prospects, so I like to monitor these performances.

Special Teams Leaders – Seasonal Top 10

Janarion Grant, WR, Rutgers, 109 return yards/game, 3 return TD

Brisly Estime, WR, Syracuse, 109 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

J.D. McKissic, WR, Arkansas State, 102 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

Byron Marshall, WR, Oregon, 96 ret. yds/gm

Kylen Towner, WR, WKU, 90 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

Rashaad Penny, RB, SDSU, 90 ret. yds/gm, 2 ret. TD

Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M, 90 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

Brett Winnegan, RB, UTSA, 89 ret. yds/gm

Daje Johnson, WR, Texas, 89 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

Devin Fuller, WR, UCLA, 85 ret. yds/gm

If there’s one name here that I’m really high on (besides Christian Kirk) it is Oregon’s Byron Marshall, who I think could be a Randall Cobb-ish, multi-threat prospect.

Defensive Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Total Tackles

Kentrell Brothers, LB, Missouri, 18.8% of total team tackles

Blake Martinez, ILB, Stanford, 18.7%

Steve Longa, LB, Rutgers, 16.4%

Anthony Walker, LB, Northwestern, 16.1%

Elandon Roberts, ILB, Houston, 16.1%

Skai Moore, LB, South Carolina, 15.9%

Christian Tago, LB, San Jose State, 15.4%

Kavon Frazier, DB, Central Michigan, 15.3%

Jalen Reeves-Maybin, LB, Tennessee, 15.2%

Nick Vigil, LB, Utah State, 15.1%

If you’re looking for a reference point here, Luke Kuechly has the TWO best seasons in my IDP database for this metric going back to 2005. In his final season he tallied 22% and in his second-to-last season he accounted for 20.7%. Anything north of 17% should be held in very high regard… Kavon Frazier is the only defensive back on this list.

Defensive Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Tackles for Loss

Ben Goodman Jr., DE, Kansas, 56.3% of team’s tackles for loss

Darius Latham, DT, Indiana, 41.7%

Jerrian Roberts, DE, North Texas, 41.7%

Woody Baron, DT, Virginia Tech, 38.9%

Bernard Dawson, DE, Georgia Southern, 37.5%

Anthony Walker, LB, Northwestern, 33.3%

Jon Schobert, OLB, Wisconsin, 32.8%

Trevon Coley, DT, Florida Atlantic, 31.6%

Nick Gilbo, LB, Buffalo, 30.6%

Alvin Jones, LB, UTEP, 30.0%

Alonzo McGee, LB, Georgia State, 30.0%

Quinton Bradley, DE, Idaho, 30.0%

Dominique Tovell, LB, Louisiana-Lafayette, 30.0%

If you’re looking for a flag bearer here, look at Aaron Donald, who accounted for 33.1% of Pitt’s tackles for loss in his final season. Anything above 25% is quite good, which all of these guys are now, but expect them to come back to earth as the sample size grows… Note that Indiana’s Darius Latham has been suspended for this weekend’s game against Ohio State, which is a killer for that D… Also, Anthony Walker from Northwestern is the only player to appear on both the tackles and tackles-for-loss leaderboards.

Defensive Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Passes Broken Up

Latrell Gibbs, DB, Appalachian State, 75% of team’s PBU

Tyree Simmons, DB, Colorado State, 70%

Mike Stevens, CB, NC State, CB, 66.7%

Heath Harding, CB, Miami OH, 66.7%

D.J. May, LB, Wyoming, 60%

Nick Nelson, DB, Hawaii, 57.1%

Jalen Davis, CB, Utah State, 50%

Anthony Makransky, DB, Wyoming, 50%

Jeremiah Harris, DL, Eastern Michigan, 50%

Brian Peavy, DB, Iowa State, 50%

Avonte Maddox, DB, Pittsburgh, 50%

Kevin Vaccaro, S, Texas, 50%

Lance Austin, DB, Georgia Tech, 50%

Anything above 35% is really strong. Again, expect regression here. Oh, and say hi to another Texas Vaccaro.

Questions

  1. Did you like seeing the defensive metrics, or are those overkill?
  2. I heard some feedback that the old layout was tough to read. Is this new wordpress theme better?
  3. Would you like access to the data set that helped generate this article? If so, you could email me at THECFX at GMAIL dot COM, or I could just set up a link with a free download. Let me know.

College Football DFS Diary – September 5 2015

Guy)  What the hell are you doing?

Fletcher)  Iiimmm kicking my asssss! Do you mind?

Fresh off the ass-kicking I took with my September 3 college football DFS plays, I am back at it again for the Saturday slate. In case you missed it, I went 0-fer, which means you did not miss much.

That said, Thursdays mini-debacle made me realize how thorough I need to be if I am going to make all my plays public, so todays effort was much greater, which will hopefully lead to better results.

(Disclaimer – this Spanish language keyboard I am using does not have, or I cannot figure out how to produce, an apostrophe or a colon… so thanks in advance for not judging my punctuation errors.)

Revisiting the purpose of this college football DFS diary, I am documenting all of my plays for both college and NFL – and the thought processes that went into every lineup – so that I can track my record as I go, have more skin in the game, and hopefully help everyone involved learn more about how to succeed in DFS.

Based on the bankroll rules I set for myself in the initial post of this series my week one budget is $10 and will be split between the various formats as follows…

Tournaments – $1 (thank goodness for quarter tourneys)

Multipliers – $2

50-50s – $7

All of these contests are being played at DraftKings, which has become my preferred platform in recent years. If you want to support my work and get a sign-up bonus, join DraftKings through this link.

None of this should be construed as advice for how to build your DFS teams.

Tournaments

Today´s Allocation of Weekly Budget – $0.75 ($0.25 spent on Thursday)

Self reminder – the name of the game in tournament play is volatility. Go big or go home.

LINEUP 1

QB

Of the nine relevant teams who are expected to surpass 40 points, only three of them have a points-share under 80%. What I mean by point-share is, how much of the game total is the favored-team expected to score. For instance, Missouri is expected to score 48 of the 54 points (89%) in their contest against SE Missouri, which I interpret to mean that the game is going to be ugly and Maty Mauk wont play a full game… not what I want for my DFS lineup. Many of the projected top-scoring teams are in this same situation. The three that arent are

Washington State – 72% point-share (Luke Falk)

Tennessee – 65% share (Josh Dobbs)

Texas Tech – 62% (presumably Patrick Mahomes, but we are not 100% clear)

To be clear, I am experimenting with this point share concept. I dont have concrete evidence on it yet, but that is the whole point of this exercise – to try things, learn from them and improve.

To start off the lineup, I am selecting Josh Dobbs ($9600) because I buy into the expectation that his team will score plenty, but the game will be relatively competitive, meaning he will play the whole way.

Between Falk and Mahomes (presumably) I am a little worried about the weather outlook for Wazzus game, which calls for 40% chance of rain. I also do not like that Falk ($9600) is $1200 more expensive, which would create budget constraints very quickly. I am going to put Mahomes ($8400) into my lineup and see how far I can get. If things do not fit together, or if Mahomes does not start, my fallback option is Dane Evans ($6700) from Tulsa, who is a veteran QB with two intriguing weapons starting his first game in a new, Baylor-like pass-heavy system.

WR

Looking for volatility, I am going to try to pair my quarterbacks with one of their wide receivers with the hopes that a single play could net my DFS team two touchdowns.

For Tennessee, I see that their top receiver from last year has been suspended for this opening game and that their fourth-most targeted receiver from last year is out with an injury. Digging a little deeper, I see that two of the starters listed for this game, Josh Malone (sophomore 5-star recruit who was the third-most targeted receiver last year) and Jauan Jennings (freshman dual-threat QB recruit who switched to WR in the spring to get more playing time and won the slot job over a senior) are priced at the minimum salary of $3000. Because I will make multiple tournament lineups, I will try Malone first and Jennings later. I also probably have the option of putting them both in a lineup if I really want to bet on the Vols having a big game.

Looking to Texas Tech, they return their most-targeted option from 2014, Jakeem Grant ($7900), who saw 20.7% of the team targets while operating from his H position. Meanwhile, the second-most targeted position from last year (19.2%), the Y, has a new starter in the form of Ian Sadler ($4700). After these two interior receiver positions, the next-most targeted receivers saw 10% fewer targets last year. Considering the $3200 price differential, I am going to select Sadler as my stack with Mahomes.

RB

Switching gears to the running game, I want to find the intersection of good OLine, high point total and reasonable price. Since I am constantly glued to my Phil Steele magazine, I check out his unit rankings to see which of the best OLs are at my disposal today. All of these are among his top 25 units… Georgia, Arkansas, Stanford, UCLA, Auburn, Texas Tech, Mississippi, Indiana, Missouri, Bolwing Green. Obviously it would be great to get Nick Chubb (Georgia) or Alex Collins (Arkansas) but their $9000+ price tags would mean my final four roster spots would have to be acquired with less than $3800 per pick.

Meanwhile, Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey can be had for half their price and steps into a great situation after being a meaningful, multi-faceted contributor last year. Mix in the fact that Northwestern is starting a freshman QB and I can envision the Cardinal possessing the ball extensively and feeding McCaffrey. I am taking McCaffrey ($4800).

I have $19,500 for one RB, one WR and two flex. One player who I want to kick the tires on is Indiana RB Jordan Howard. He is one of my top devy runners and is making his debut for IU after transfering from UAB. IU is expected to score about 36 points with about 63% point-share, meaning the game should be reasonably close, but IU should be playing from ahead. I can envision Howard having a breakout game. I am buying for $7500.

Just kidding… that is going to make it tough for me to fill out my roster at $4000 per pop over the final three positions. Throwing Howard back and will look in the $5500 or less range.

Sony Michel, maybe as a hedge on Nick Chubb getting pulled early?

One game that has kind of a sneaky-high point total, with a clear lead-runner and some quarterback tumult is Maryland – Richmond. Also, it has a 30% chance of rain. Brandon Ross can be had for $4200 with the expectation that he will be Marylands top offensive threat on a day where they are expected to score 39. Lets try this.

For my last receiver spot, I am going back to the Tulsa – FAU game I mentioned earlier, which has a 67 point total and, for Tulsa, a team total of 36. Remember, if Mahomes does not start I am using Dane Evans from Tulsa, so using a Tulsa receiver here essentially would guarantee me that I have a stack regardless of which QB plays… and no matter what I like Ian Sadler in my lineup. Keevan Lucas ($7800) would be a bonus, but he is too expensive. Im going to roll with the oversized, and finally healthy, Keyarris Garrett instead for $5200.

Down to my flex spots and $10,100 remaining, I want to try to find the best upside I can. I remember Jon Bales saying once that everyone in your tournament lineup should have a reasonable chance of scoring two touchdowns in that game. Thats the mindset I must use for these last spots.

One guy who I think fits that bill is Jon Hilliman from Boston College. The Eagles are breaking in a new QB and and 4 new offensive lineman, but the team total is 37? Not sure how that works, but I am pretty sure it implies a big day for Hilliman. I will take the bait for $6900.

$3200 left and I know I have Jauan Jennings there at $3000 if I need him. Scrolling frantically through the bottom of the barrell to see if any starters have been misvalued…

AHA! This could be worth a dice roll. Greg Howell from FAU is the newly minted 1A starter. Maybe he doesnt get every carry, but the majority could be good enough. According to Phil Steele, Tulsa has one of the worst defensive lines and defenses in the AAC. FAU has the 6th best OL in CUSA. Its not pretty, but maybe? With a team total set for 31, I will take the touches and hope for the best.

rsz_cfx_tourney_1

Wow, that got carried away… I will keep these much shorter moving forward

LINEUP 2

Next lineup is going to be close to this one, but with a few tweaks.

Right off the bat, Josh Dobbs is going in again, but this time paired with Jauan Jennings. Realizing the limits of the Tulsa defense, I want to give FAU QB Jaquez Johnson ($6200) a try given his dual threat ability and past performance. As far as I can tell, his most trusted remaining receiver with the loss of Lucky Whitehead is Jenson Stoshak ($4400), so that will be my stack there.

I mentioned before that I wanted to get Indiana RB Jordan Howard in a lineup ($7500) which I prioritized here due to the scores he has received in my prospect evaluation system, his quality offensive line, and the high team total. Same as last time, RB Christian McCaffrey is getting the call here, as is TTU WR Ian Sadler. That gets us to the Flex spots wih $9800 left. Because I feel good about the decisions made with the last lineup, I am sticking with Brandon Ross from Maryland. With $5100 remaining, I decided that the upside of Sony Michel was the best value at that point with the notion that he will get some touches while Chubb is in the game and then all of the touches for a period in the early second half. Even though he is a backup, a line of 100+ yards and two touchdowns would not surprise me.

rsz_cfx_tourney_2

LINEUP 3

No Josh Dobbs at QB this time, however Dane Evans gets proactively played here, instead of the backup treatment he got in tournament lineup 1. He gets stacked with top target Keevan Lucas. For my second QB, with the goal of creating variance, I went with unknown CJ Beathard who has the Iowa starting job and strong team total to support a nice debut for him. For better or worse, it was one of the Vegas lines that stood out like, what do they know that I dont, and I decided to ride their coattails. He gets stacked with Iowas most proven receiving commodity, Tevaun Smith. Maybe I am getting lazy here, but McCaffrey and Ross just create so much flexibility due to their low price and their strong likelihood of a high touch count. I am sure I will curse this decision on Monday. Oh well.

As a sort of hedge against not having any of the Tennessee passing offense, I really wanted to get Jalen Hurd, their lead RB, so he went in the Flex. Down to $8700, I went looking for a cheap boom-bust pass catcher and found the phenom Hunter Henry. He is Arkansas second favorite target and their best touchdown threat. Would it be surprising if UTEP hung around long enough to activate the Arkansas pass game? Finally, knowing I had a few cheap options in my back pocket, I went looking for a cheap RB. Algernon Brown from BYU fit the bill as the replacement for Jamaal Williams. Taysom Hill should draw a ton of attention and, in expected windy conditions, I could see Brown receiving a large number of carries.

rsz_cfx_tourney_3

Multipliers

Today´s Allocation of Weekly Budget – $1 ($1 spent on Thursday)

Feeling like I have a good sense of floor and upside, I want to fill this roster with high-floor high-upside players.

QB
Maybe I am falling into a trap here, but so many factors point toward a good outing for Dane Evans, so I am locking him in with his main guy Keevan Lucas. Mixing things up, I am rolling out Auburn QB Jeremy Johnson. Although the Auburn team total isnt spectacular at 34, playing Johnson is kind of a hedge against all the uncertainty of the offense, with the Duke Williams playing time issue and the unknown running back split. No stack for JJ.

RB
Back at it with Hilliman and McCaffrey at RB. Also, you will see that my flex plays were both running backs I have used before. (Maybe I get too fixated on certain games and players and dont diversify enough?)

WR
One game I havent touched yet, but features a 36 point team total is UCLA – Virginia. Even though we dont know who UCLAs passer will be, his top target will certainly be Jordan Payton. Finally, I circle back on Tennessee WR Jauan Jennings, who I feel might have a slightly higher floor than his bargain brother Josh Malone. Jennings it is.
cfx multiplier

50-50s

Today´s Allocation of Weekly Budget – $4 ($3 spent on Saturday)
Alright, I am out of gas on the writeups. Here are the 50-50 lineups I am using.

5050 cfx 1

5050 cfx 2

5050 cfx 3

5050 cfx 4

Total Shares of Players (8 possible lineups)

QB

Josh Dobbs – 4

Patrick Mahomes – 2

C.J. Beathard – 2

Dane Evans – 2

Jeremy Johnson – 2

Kevin Hogan – 1

Matt Johnson – 1

Tommy Armstrong – 1

Jaquez Johnson – 1 (I thought I played him more than this. Guess I just hated the stack options)

RB

Brandon Ross – 8  (oh shit! got carried away – or lazy – with this)

Christian McCaffrey – 5

Jon Hilliman – 4

Greg Howell – 3

Jordan Howard – 3

Jalen Hurd – 3

Algernon Brown – 2

Wayne Gallman – 1

Jaylen Walton – 1

Sony Michel – 1

WR

Ian Sadler – 5

Jauan Jennings – 3

Josh Malone – 2

Keyarris Garrett – 2

Keevan Lucas – 2

Hunter Henry – 2

Roger Lewis – 2

Jordan Westerkamp – 2

Jenson Stoshak – 1

Tevaun Smith – 1

Jordan Payton – 1

DaeSean Hamilton – 1

Dan Vitale – 1

In doing this count and looking back through my rosters, I realized that I have a reliance on RBs in the flex position. Not sure if that is good or bad, just a thing to monitor.

Alright, so now here is the fun part… you get to tell me where you agree or disagree with my thought process, player selection, etc., so go ahead and leave a comment.


Jon Moore is a contributor at RotoViz and a cohost of Rotoviz Radio – A Fantasy Football Podcast.  Continue this conversation with him on TwitterGoogle+ or Facebook.