The College Football Market Share Report – Season Recap

That’s all, folks! The 2015-16 College Football season is officially over. It’s almost time to turn our attention to draft season, but before we do here is one final Market Share Report.

For this edition I’ve made a few tweaks, including a section for best past-catching running backs. Also, for anyone who I know is entering the 2016 NFL Draft, I’ve put an asterisk by their name.

How you might want to interact with this article:
1) Skim the dense parts and read the summaries at the end of each section
2) Find rockstar performances and focus on those in your film-watching endeavors
3) Leave a comment because comments are fun

With this being the last article in this series, I ask that, if you enjoyed this publication throughout the season, you consider supporting my work via a paypal donation.

Quarterbacks of Bowl Season

Sean Maguire, Florida State, 92.7% of team’s offensive yards

  • 22-44, 392 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT vs Houston

Patrick Mahomes II, Texas Tech, 85.7%

  • 28-56, 370 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT vs LSU

Lamar Jackson, Louisville, 84.8%

  • 12-26, 227 yards, 2 TD, 226 rush yards, 2 rush TD vs Texas A&M

Tanner Mangum, BYU, 82.4%

  • 25-56, 315 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT, 1 rush TD vs Utah

*Mike Bercovici, Arizona State, 82.3%

  • 29-52, 418 yards, 4 TD, 10 rush yards vs WVU

*Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State, 82.3%

  • 14-29, 208 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT vs SJSU

Skyler Howard, West Virginia, 82.1%

  • 28-51, 532 yards, 5 TD, 2 INT, 23 rush yards vs ASU

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss, 81.9%

  • 25-38, 331 yards, 2 TD vs Washington

Thomas Woodson, Akron, 81.2%

  • 14-29, 168 yards, 1 INT, 47 rush yards, rec. TD vs Utah St

Josh Rosen, UCLA, 79.8%

  • 26-40, 319 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT vs Nebraska

ACC fans might want to take note of Louisville and QB Lamar Jackson. He posted massive dual-threat production in the bowl game and is just a sophomore next year. Bobby Petrino will be in his third season, which was a fruitful point during his first stay at Louisville and at Arkansas; he lost no more than three games in either of those “year threes”… it might be fun to go back and watch that ASU-WVU bowl game, considering it had two quarterbacks going absolutely bonkers in it.

 

Seasonal QB Leaders

Luke Falk, Washington State, 76.8% of team’s offensive yards

  • 6’4, 205lbs, Sophomore

*Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State, 75.9%

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 74.6%

  • 6’3, 227lbs, Junior

*Dak Prescott, Mississippi State, 73.2%

  • 6’2, 230lbs, Senior

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 71.8%

  • 6’0, 211lbs, Freshman

*Jeff Driskel, Louisiana Tech, 69.4%

  • 6’4, 231lbs, Senior

Riley Neal, Ball State, 68.7%

  • 6’5, 217lbs, Freshman

*Jared Goff, Cal, 68.6%

  • 6’2, 215lbs, Junior

Brent Stockstill, MTSU, 68%

  • 6’0, 200lbs, Freshman

Patrick Mahomes II, Texas Tech, 67.9%

  • 6’3, 219lbs, Sophomore

Alex McGough, FIU, 67.5%

  • 6’3, 218lbs, Sophomore

Deshaun Watson, Clemson, 67.5%

  • 6’2, 210lbs, Sophomore

Chad Kelly, Ole Miss, 67.5%

  • 6’2, 215lbs, Junior

It’s fun to see Jared Goff end the year with a bang and climb so high up this list. An early declaration, he’s almost certain to go in the first round. Just for fun, I thought I’d check on how first-round quarterbacks from the last two years fared in terms of final-seasons market share of offense:

  • Winston – 67.8%
  • Mariota – 64.0%
  • Bortles – 67.1%
  • Manziel – 69.6%
  • Bridgewater – 67.6%

The average is 67.2%, which is slightly below Goff’s mark (68.9%), and he did himself no favors with his rushing ability… As later-round prospects, it will be fun to see where Dak Prescott and Jeff Driskel end up going… Say hello to Deshaun Watson, Chad Kelly and Patrick Mahomes, who should be among college football’s most exciting quarterbacks in 2016.

 

Running Backs of Bowl Season

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 64.6%

  • 18 carries, 172 yards, 105 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD, 91 ret. yards, 1 ret. TD vs Iowa

Joe Williams, Utah, 57.4%

  • 25 carries, 91 yards, 2 TD, 22 rec. yards vs BYU

James Butler, Nevada, 54.8%

  • 24 carries, 189 yards, 2 TD vs Colorado St

Romello Ross, Central Michigan, 51.4%

  • 19 carries, 100 yards, 1 TD, 28 rec. yards vs Minnesota

Joel Bouagnon, Northern Illinois, 48.5%

  • 8 carries, 16 yards vs Boise

*Tyler Ervin, SJSU, 45.1%

  • 30 carries, 132 yards, 98 return yards vs Georgia State

Johnny Jefferson, Baylor, 42.7%

  • 23 carries, 299 yards, 3 TD, 24 pass yards vs UNC

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 40.1%

  • 29 carries, 212 yards, 4 TD, 44 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Texas Tech

Donnel Pumphrey, SDSU, 39.9%

  • 25 carries, 99 yards, 1 TD, 19 rec. yards, 16 pass yards vs Cincinnati

Marcus Cox, Appalachian State, 37.9%

  • 24 carries, 162 yards, 1 TD vs Ohio

Bowl season and pretty much everything else for the last two months (except the Heisman) has belonged to Christian McCaffrey. If there’s a single bowl season performance worth going back to re-watch, it’s him in the Rose Bowl. I know this is going to sound absurd, and there will almost certainly be “white running back” stereotypes to overcome, but I think he’s a borderline Reggie Bush caliber prospect… Johnny Jefferson might be the only player in McCaffrey’s tier of bowl-studliness. When looking at his bowl game and last regular season game, he rushed for 457 yards on 46 carries. Bye bye, Shock Linwood. Heeeeeeereeee’s Johnny!… Keep an eye on Marcus Cox next year for App State. That program is on the rise and he’s their best offensive player.

 

Seasonal RB Leaders

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 44.3% of team’s offensive yards

  • 6’0, 201lbs, Sophomore

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 42%

  • 6’1, 230lbs, Sophomore

*Devontae Booker, Utah, 41.2%

  • 6’1, 212lbs, Senior

Brian Hill, Wyoming, 40.7%

  • 6’1, 211lbs, Sophomore

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 39.7%

  • 5’9, 180lbs, Junior

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 39.2%

  • 5’11, 202lbs, Sophomore

Larry Rose III, New Mexico State, 37.2%

  • 5’11, 184lbs, Sophomore

Justin Jackson, Northwestern, 37.2%

  • 5’11, 190lbs, Sophomore

*Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 36.8%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Senior

*Derrick Henry, Alabama, 36.1%

  • 6’3, 242lbs, Junior

*Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State, 35.9%

  • 6’0, 225lbs, Junior

What a remarkable year for college running backs. Not sure how else to say it. And even though  Zeke, Derrick and Devontae are off to the NFL, next year will be loaded to with many of the names on this list returning and a few others like Royce Freeman, Marlon Mack, Saquon Barkley and more to sprinkle in… And for the record, I’m still not over the fact that Derrick Henry won the Heisman, depsite accounting for roughly eight percent less of his offense than McCaffrey did on similarly outstanding teams.

 

Seasonal RB Leaders – Pass Catching

Taquan Mizzell, Virginia, 25.2% of team’s receiving yards

  • 5’10, 195lb, Junior

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 21.8%

  • 6’0, 201lbs, Sophomore

*Jalin Marshall, Ohio State, 21.3%

  • 5’11, 205lbs, RS-Sophomore

Ervin Phillips, Syracuse, 21.3%

  • 5’11, 181lbs, Sophomore

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 20.9%

  • 5’9, 180lbs, Junior

Arkeel Newsome, Connecticut, 19.3%

  • 5’7, 182lbs, Sophomore

Clinton Lynch, Georgia Tech, 18.7%

  • 6’0, 181lbs, Freshman

*Dwayne Washington, Washington, 17.5%

  • 6’2, 226lbs, Junior

Papi White, Ohio, 17.5%

  • 5’9, 166lbs, Freshman

Raekwon James, Kent State, 17.3%

  • 5’9, 187lbs, Freshman

Ben Lewis, Syracuse, 16.5%

  • 6’2, 213lbs, Junior

*Devontae Booker, Utah, 15.5%

  • 5’11, 212lbs, Senior

This is a new category and I’m not entirely sure how relevant it is, but I thought it was interesting. Two of the more head-scratching NFL Draft early entries – Marshall and Washington – show up on this list, which could help explain their entries despite their substandard rushing production… On the other hand, Devontae Booker is a badass on all fronts… And shoutout to Donnel Pumphrey, who appears on both the overall running back leaderboard and the pass-catching back leaderboard. He’s so tiny, but so talented.

Service academy footnotes: Timothy McVey (Air Force, 22.2%), John Trainor (Army, 20.1%), DeBrandon Sanders (Navy, 19.5%)

 

Wide Receivers of Bowl Season

*Malcolm Mitchell, Georgia, 70.8% of team’s receiving yards

  • 5 rec., 114 yards, 1 TD vs Penn State

Isaiah Ford, Virginia Tech, 66%

  • 12 rec., 227 yards, 1 TD, 23 rush yards vs Tulsa

Josh Reynolds, Texas A&M, 57.7%

  • 11 rec., 177 yards vs Louisville

Jerico Richardson, Nevada, 56.8%

  • 4 rec,. 42 yards vs Colorado St

*Cayleb Jones, Arizona, 55.3%

  • 4 rec., 182 yards, 1 TD vs New Mexico

Corey Davis, Western Michigan, 55.3%

  • 8 rec., 183 yards, 1 TD vs MTSU

Justin Holmes, SJSU, 53.9%

  • 3 rec., 48 yards vs Georgia State

*Mike Thomas, Southern Miss, 53.8%

  • 9 rec., 190 yards, 2 TD, 34 ret. yards vs Washington

Andrew Pratt, Akron, 51.6%

  • 9 rec., 94 yards vs Utah State

Travis Rudolph, Florida State, 50.6%

  • 7 rec., 201 yards, 1 TD vs Houston

Good on Malcolm Mitchell to finish an adventurous career with an epic performance in his bowl game. I’m not that high on him as a prospect (for now), but going over 100 yards and 70% of his team’s passing offense is ridiculous… DEVY OWNERS – keep an eye on Isaiah Ford. He’s just 19 years old, went nuts in his bowl game and accounted for nearly 40% of his team’s receiving yards on the year. That is ELITE… Finally, be aware of Mike Thomas from Southern Miss. Not to be confused with Mike Thomas from Ohio State or a million other Mike Thomases. This kid can play and is almost certainly a top 10 receiver in this draft for me. Much more to come on him.

 

Seasonal WR Leaders

*Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 47.2% of team’s receiving yards

  • 5’10, 175lbs, Senior

*Leonte Carroo, Rutgers, 43.6% of receiving yards

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Tanner Gentry, Wyoming, 43.6%

  • 6’2, 201lbs, Junior

*Tajae Sharpe, UMass, 42.7%

  • 6’3, 188lbs, Senior

BJ Johnson, Georgia Southern, 41.8%

  • 6’1, 212lbs, Junior

Isaiah Ford, Virginia Tech, 39.6%

  • 6’2, 188lbs, Sophomore

Chris Godwin, Penn State, 39.5%

  • 6’1, 208lbs, Sophomore

*Tyler Boyd, Pitt, 39.5%

  • 6’2, 200lbs, Junior

*Pharoh Cooper, South Carolina, 39.1%

  • 5’11, 207lbs, Junior

Kenny Golladay, Northern Illinois, 38.7%

  • 6’4, 200lbs, Junior

JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC, 38.5%

  • 6’2, 215lbs, Sophomore

Corey Davis (my love), Western Michigan, 38.4%

  • 6’3, 205lbs, Junior

*Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 38.4%

  • 6’1, 208lbs, Senior

Exciting to see that this leaderboard is peppered with players who will be in the 2016 NFL Draft. I’ve already written about a number of them at RotoViz and plan to hit more in the coming weeks:

Looking ahead to 2016, Ford, Godwin, Juju and Corey Davis are among the top returning receiver prospects… About Dezmon Epps, he only played six games this year, and he’s miniature, but he was really good in those games, so I cheated a bit on my games played requirement and included him for draft awareness purposes.

Service Academy footnotes: Jamir Tillman (51.3%, Navy), Edgar Poe (44.6%, Army)

Jerome Lane footnotes: 32% of Akron’s yards

 

Tight Ends of Bowl Season

Cole Hikutini, Louisville, 45.4% of team’s receiving yards

  • 3 rec., 103 yards vs NC State

O.J. Howard, Alabama, 45% (2 games)

  • 8 rec., 267 yards, 2 TD vs Michigan St, Clemson

Pharoah McKever, NC State, 38.3%

  • 1 rec., 82 yards, 1 TD vs Mississippi State

Alex Ellis, Tennessee, 38.1%

  • 3 rec., 74 yards vs Northwestern

Ari Werts, Georgia State, 30.3%

  • 3 rec., 63 yards vs SJSU

*Hunter Henry, Arkansas, 29.2%

  • 5 rec., 92 yards vs Kansas State

*Ben McCord, Central Michigan, 29%

  • 2 rec., 42 yards vs Minnesota

Alec Bloom, UConn, 27.9%

  • 2 rec., 24 yards vs Marshall

Evan Engram, Ole Miss, 27.7%

  • 6 rec., 96 yards vs Oklahoma State

Barrett Burns, Appalachian St, 25.8%

  • 3 rec., 32 yards, 2 TD vs Ohio

After years of hearing about O.J. Howard and not seeing any production, it was exciting to see him blow up in the National Championship game. Paging Lane Kiffin, please use him more next year… Hunter Henry is a name you need to know, if you don’t already. Probably my top TE prospect for the 2016 Draft.

 

Seasonal TE Leaders

*David Morgan II, UTSA, 24.4% of team’s receiving yards

  • 6’4, 260lbs, Senior

Gerald Everett, South Alabama, 24%

  • 6’4, 225lbs, Junior

*Rodney Mills, UMass, 21.9%

  • 6’1, 205lbs, Senior

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 21.8%

  • 5’11, 236lbs, Sophomore

O.J. Howard, Alabama, 21.2%

  • 6’6, 242lbs, Junior

*Dan Vitale, Northwestern, 21.2%

  • 6’2, 235lbs, Senior

*Hunter Henry, Arkansas, 21.2%

  • 6’5, 253lbs, Junior

Jake Butt, Michigan, 21.2%

  • 6’6, 248lbs, Junior

Billy Freeman, SJSU, 21.2%

  • 6’3, 232lbs, Junior

*Matt Weiser, Buffalo, 20.9%

  • 6’5, 255lbs, Senior

Cam Serigne, Wake Forest, 20.5%

  • 6’3, 245lbs, R-Sophomore

Brandon Lingen, Minnesota, 20.2%

  • 6’5, 247lbs, Sophomore

The 2016 TE class looks like it’s going to take a hit by not having Serigne, Hodges, Butt and Engram not declare, but I’m intrigued by what David Morgan II and, to a lesser extent, Matt Weiser might have to offer.

 

Seasonal Special Teams Leaders

Janarion Grant, Rutgers, WR, 91.3% of team’s return yards

  • 5’11, 170lbs, Junior

Brisly Estime, Syracuse, WR, 89.6%

  • 5’9, 178lbs, Junior

*Derek Keaton, Georgia Southern, WR, 89.6%

  • 5’11, 185lbs, Senior

Kylen Towner, Western Kentucky, WR, 89.4%

  • 5’8, 175lbs, Sophomore

*Teddy Ruben, Troy, WR, 87.3%

  • 5’7, 161lbs, Senior

KaVontae Turpin, TCU, WR, 86.7%

  • 5’9, 152lbs, Freshman

*Deandre Reaves, Marshall, WR, 86.2%

  • 5’10, 179lbs, Senior

*Tyler Ervin, SJSU, RB, 85.2%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Senior

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, RB, 84.6%

  • 6’0, 201lbs, Sophomore

*Jakeem Grant, Texas Tech, WR, 83.6%

  • 5’7, 168lbs, Senior

I’ve written in the past about how special teams contributions are a key to finding hidden value, and I’m curious about how Jakeem Grant will fare in the coming months. He’s pretty dynamic and looked great against LSU in his bowl game.

And, yes, I’m aware that I used the same Christian McCaffrey photo on this article and the last in-season one, but he’s earned it.

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The College Football Market Share Report – Week 10 Recap

New week. Same great taste. We’re looking at college football’s top performers based on the percentage of their offense they are shouldering.

How you might want to interact with this article:
1) Skim the dense parts and read the summaries at the end of each section
2) Find rockstar performances and focus on those in your film-watching endeavors
3) Leave a comment so I can make this content even more beneficial to you

Let’s get to it.

Quarterbacks of the week

Luke Falk, Washington State, 92.4% of team’s offensive yards

  • 36-55, 497 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT vs Arizona State

James Summers, East Carolina, 90.9%

  • 14-22, 158 yards, 42 rush yards, 2 rush TD vs USF

DaMarcus Smith, North Texas, 88.3%

  • 25-45, 234 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 45 rush yards @ La Tech

Tanner Mangum, BYU, 86.0%

  • 23-37, 293 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT @ SJSU

Mitch Leidner, Minnesota, 85.4%

  • 27-44, 281 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT @ Ohio State

John Fadule, Boston College, 85.3%

  • 23-37, 257 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT vs NC State

Anu Solomon, Arizona, 85.0%

  • 31-46, 352 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT @ USC

Gunner Kiel, Cincinnati, 84.7%

  • 28-51, 523 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT @ Houston

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State, 82.9%

  • 16-24, 352 yards, 5 TD, 26 rush yards vs TCU

David Washington, Old Dominion, 81.6%

  • 29-48, 378 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 69 rush yards @ UTSA

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State, 81.4%

  • 27-40, 303 yards, 4 TD, 47 rush yards @ Missouri

Gunner Kiel has gone bananas in two straight games. I haven’t really watched him play yet this year, but I’ve heard some good things about him. He could be a sneaky late-climber in a potential QB class that’s grasping at straws right now… Mason Rudolph and Oklahoma State proved they were legit with a big win against TCU last weekend. That team (and I guess Ohio State) is one of the rare cases of a quarterback rotation working well on the college level. Props to Rudolph and J.W. Walsh for making that work… Boston College’s John Fadule is back for a second straight week. You’d think they would ask a freshman quarterback to do less, not more, but he’s been carrying that team lately.

Seasonal QB Leaders

Luke Falk, Washington State, 81.0% of team’s offensive yards

  • 6’4, 205lbs, Sophomore

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 76.9%

  • 6’0, 211lbs, Freshman

Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State, 76.6%

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 74.7%

  • 6’3, 227lbs, Junior

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 72.0%

  • 6’0, 219lbs, Senior

Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut, 71.6%

  • 6’2, 220lbs, Sophomore

Trevone Boykin, TCU, 71.0%

  • 6’2, 205lbs, Senior

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State, 69.4%

  • 6’2, 230lbs, Senior

Alex McGough, FIU, 69.4%

  • 6’3, 218lbs, Sophomore

Riley Neal, Ball State, 69.0%

  • 6’5, 217lbs, Freshman

Dak Prescott, your table is ready. This weekend the Mississippi State senior gets Alabama at home in what could be the culminating moment of his career and vault him into the Heisman top five. He almost perfectly fits the historical Heisman prototype for dual-threat quarterbacks… Luke Falk is having some kind of season. I haven’t run the numbers against historical Mike Leach quarterbacks, but it’s hard to imagine that anyone could have accounted for a higher percentage of the offense than Falk is this year… Even with the loss, I think Trevone Boykin still has Heisman life. He is everything for that offense.

Running Backs of the week

Ralph Webb, Vanderbilt, 67.4% of team’s offensive yards

  • 22 carries, 118 yards, 1 TD @ Florida

Paul Harris, Hawaii, 57.1%

  • 20 carries, 190 yards, 1 TD, 2 rec., 26 rec. yards @ UNLV

Larry Rose III, New Mexico State, 55.4%

  • 31 carries, 207 yards, 2 TD, 2 rec., 85 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Texas State

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 54.8%

  • 21 carries, 194 yards, 1 TD, 1 rec., 4 rec. yards @ Clemson

Devontae Booker, Utah, 49.4%

  • 34 carries, 150 yards, 1 TD, 2 rec., 21 rec. yards @ Washington

Justin Jackson, Northwestern, 49.2%

  • 28 carries, 186 yards, 1 rec., 9 rec. yards vs Penn State

Derrick Henry, Alabama, 48.4%

  • 38 carries, 210 yards, 3 TD vs LSU

Saquon Barkley (SQBK), Penn State, 47.0%

  • 25 carries, 120 yards, 2 TD, 6 rec., 50 rec. yards @ Northwestern

Jordan Howard, Indiana, 46.4%

  • 22 carries, 174 yards, 2 TD, 2 rec., 15 rec. yards vs Iowa

DeAndre Washington, Texas Tech, 43.9%

  • 21 carries, 102 yards, 6 rec., 64 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ WVU

Ralph Webb is back for the second week in a row after he single handedly carried the Vanderbilt offense to a near upset of the Gators… Justin Jackson and Derrick Henry used their massive performances over the weekend to vault into the seasonal leaderboard, which we’ll get to in a minute… Jordan Howard, a prospect I love and who is finally healthy again, had 174 rush yards against an Iowa defense that hadn’t allowed any other running back to surpass 75 yards all season.

Seasonal RB Leaders

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 42.7% of team’s offensive yards

  • 5’11, 202lbs, Sophomore

Devontae Booker, Utah, 41.9%

  • 6’1, 212lbs, Senior

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 41.8%

  • 6’1, 230lbs, Sophomore

Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 41.7%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Senior

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 40.8%

  • 5’9, 180lbs, Junior

Larry Rose III, New Mexico State, 40.5%

  • 5’11, 184lbs, Sophomore

Brian Hill, Wyoming, 40.0%

  • 6’1, 211lbs, Sophomore

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 39.3%

  • 6’0, 201lbs, Sophomore

Jahad Thomas, Temple, 36.1%

  • 5’10, 180lbs, Junior

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 35.6%

  • 5’10, 201lbs, Sophomore

Justin Jackson, Northwestern, 34.9%

  • 5’11, 190lbs, Sophomore

Derrick Henry, Alabama, 34.7%

  • 6’3, 242lbs, Junior

Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State, 34.5%

  • 6’0, 225lbs, Junior

Saquon Barkley, Penn State, 34.2%

  • 5’11, 222lbs, Freshman

What an amazing year for the running back position! This week Derrick Henry joins the mix after his breathtaking performance against LSU. It feels like the production has finally caught up with the hype and the result is a beautiful thing… Meanwhile, Leonard Fournette, for the first time since I’ve been doing this (I think), has fallen from the top spot… Dalvin Cook, Devontae Booker move up after great performances over the weekend… Saquon Barkley, man, I’m telling you. LOOK OUT!

Wide Receivers of the Week

Delane Hart-Johnson, New Mexico, 82.7%

  • 1 reception, 86 yards, 1 TD vs Utah State

Hasaan Henderson, Nevada, 66.0%

  • 5 rec., 136 yards, 1 TD @ Fresno State

Demarcus Robinson, Florida, 64.2%

  • 9 rec., 106 yards vs Vanderbilt

Al Riles, UL-Lafayette, 63.6%

  • 8 rec., 103 yards, 1 TD, 4 rush yards @ Georgia State

Jared Murphy, Miami OH, 60.7%

  • 7 rec., 91 yards, 2 TD vs Eastern Michigan

Travin Dural, LSU, 60.2%

  • 2 rec., 77 yards, 1 TD @ Alabama

Will Fuller, Notre Dame, 58.0%

  • 7 rec., 152 yards, 3 TD @ Pittsburgh

Malcolm Mitchell, Georgia, 57.8%

  • 4 rec., 52 yards vs Kentucky

Marcus Green, UL-Monroe, 56.9%

  • 12 rec., 149 yards, 1 TD, 13 ret. yards @ Troy

JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC, 56.8%

  • 8 rec., 138 yards, 1 TD vs Arizona

Demarcus Robinson is a guy I reallly liked last year in a floundering Florida offense. I thought maybe he could become Jim McElwain’s “new Rashard Higgins” this year, but it hasn’t been quite that seamless. All the same, he’s a strong player and could be a sneaky good addition to the 2016 draft class… Meanwhile, Will Fuller continues to maul defenses with no remorse. Since the start of last season, he has caught 27 of Notre Dame’s 50 touchdowns despite being just 6’0 180lbs….  Hasaan Henderson is a name to file away for later. He’s 6’5 220lbs and has 35% of Nevada’s receiving yards this season in a limited passing offense.

Service Academy footnotes: DeBrandon Sanders (Navy, 88.2%), Edgar Poe (Army, 73.3%), Garrett Brown (Air Force, 57.7%)

Seasonal WR Leaders

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 47.2% of receiving yards

  • 5’10, 175lbs, Senior

Tanner Gentry, Wyoming, 43.6%

  • 6’2, 201lbs, Junior

Leonte Carroo, Rutgers, 42.7%

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Corey Coleman, Baylor, 41.3%

  • 5’11, 190lbs, Junior

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 41.2%

  • 5’8, 185lbs, Senior

Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 41.1%

  • 6’1, 208lbs, Senior

Travin Dural, LSU, 41.0%

  • 6’2, 203lbs, Junior

Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh, 40.0%

  • 6’2, 200lbs, Junior

Daniel Braverman, Western Michigan, 40.0%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Junior

JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC, 39.8%

  • 6’2, 215lbs, Sophomore

Tajae Sharpe, UMass, 39.2%

  • 6’3, 188lbs, Senior

Corey Coleman DGAF who his quarterback is; he just keeps mauling. To see a guy rank fourth national in market share of yards AND lead the country in touchdowns is a pretty special combination…. Travin Dural hasn’t got much attention for the LSU offense this year, but he’s putting together a solid, Rueben Randle-esque college season in which he has great market share, but poor raw production. The body types are similar too… Finally, JuJu Smith-Schuster is incredible. This kid might be the single best receiver prospect in college football – yes, even above Treadwell. I think he’s deserving of finishing in the top 10 of the Heisman vote.

Service Academy footnotes: Jamir Tillman (45.5%, Navy), Garrett Brown (51.1%, Air Force), Edgar Poe (40.9%, Army)

Jerome Lane footnotes: 31.1% of Akron’s yards

Tight Ends of the week

Sam Dobbs, Vanderbilt, 70.0% of team’s receiving yards

  • 1 reception, 21 yards @ Florida

Bryce Williams, East Carolina, 53.8%

  • 6 rec., 85 yards vs USF

Kivon Cartwright, Colorado State, 46.7%

  • 4 rec., 56 yards @ Wyoming

Billy Freeman, SJSU, 45.6%

  • 6 rec., 67 yards vs BYU

Cody Tuttle, Eastern Michigan, 41.6%

  • 2 rec., 37 yards @ Miami OH

Hayden Plinke, UTEP, 36.8%

  • 9 rec., 85 yards vs Rice

Trey Scott, Tulane, 35.8%

  • 2 rec., 38 yards vs UConn

Rodney Mills, UMass, 35.8%

  • 6 rec., 62 yards vs Akron

Terry Pettis, MTSU, 35.7%

  • 5 rec., 126 yards, 1 TD vs Marshall

Deon Watson, Idaho, 34.4%

  • 7 rec., 109 yards, 2 TD @ South Alabama

Jordan Leggett, Clemson, 34%

  • 6 rec., 101 yards vs Florida State

Bryce Williams is a guy that Chris Burke singled out on last week’s On The Clock podcast, which he was kind enough to invite me to join. He hasn’t made much noise in this space, but he could be another nice piece of the 2016 class… Also, Jordan Leggett has been really good for Clemson this year. He’s got the size and production I like to see.

Seasonal TE Leaders

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 25.0% of team’s receiving yards

  • 5’11, 236lbs, Sophomore

Gerald Everett, South Alabama, 24.8%

  • 6’4, 225lbs, Junior

Rodney Mills, UMass, 24.6%

  • 6’1, 205lbs, Senior

David Morgan II, UTSA, 24.1%

  • 6’4, 260lbs, Senior

Dan Vitale, Northwestern, 23.7%

  • 6’2, 235lbs, Senior

Jake Butt, Michigan, 23.1%

  • 6’6, 248lbs, Junior

Bucky Hodges, Virginia Tech, 22.4%

  • 6’7, 241lbs, R-Sophomore

Matt Weiser, Buffalo, 21.8%

  • 6’5, 255lbs, Senior

Austin Hooper, Stanford, 21.4%

  • 6’4, 248lbs, Junior

There’s not a whole lot of shakeup in this list, but I’m starting to get excited for how good this TE draft class could be. Underclassmen like Hooper, Butt, Cam Serigne, Hodges, Hunter Henry, Jordan Leggett mixed in with senior like David Morgan and Matt Weiser could make for a fun draft class. Comparatively, tight end was really week last year.

Special Teams Studs of the week

Janarion Grant, Rutgers, WR, 237 return yards, 1 ret. TD, 3 rec., 26 rec. yards @ Michigan

Braeden West, SMU, RB, 180 ret. yards, 1 ret. TD, 1 rec., 45 rec. yards vs Temple

Aregeros Turner, Northern Illinois, WR, 168 ret. yards, 2 rec., 21 rec. yards @ Toledo

Tre Johnson, North Texas, RB, 168 ret. yards @ La Tech

KaVontae Turpin, TCU, WR, 153 ret. yards, 7 rec., 107 rec. yards, 4 rush, 22 rush yards @ Oklahoma State

Keelan Ewaliko, Hawaii, WR, 142 ret. yards @ UNLV

Xavier Johnson, South Alabama, RB, 141 ret. yards, 1 ret. TD, 9 rush., 148 rush. yards, 1 rush. TD vs Idaho

Tyrell Johnson, Arizona, WR, 139 ret. yards, 1 rec., 21 rec. yards @ USC

Jakeem Grant, Texas Tech, WR, 131 ret. yards, 5 rec., 8 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ WVU

Brisly Estime, Syracuse, WR, 130 ret. yards, 1 rec., 36 rec. yards @ Louisville

Three players return from last week: Keelan, Jakeem and Braeden. Keelan Ewaliko is interesting because he’s got more size than most return men at 5’11 200lbs. He’s listed as a receiver, but hasn’t contributed there yet… Braeden West, like Jakeem Grant, is a really small human being, especially for being a running back, but he certainly filled up the box score last week… KaVontae Turpin looks to be the only Horned Frog who enjoyed his trip to Stillwater.

Seasonal Special Teams Leaders

Janarion Grant, Rutgers, WR, 97.5% of team’s return yards

  • 5’11, 170lbs, Junior

Kylen Towner, Western Kentucky, WR, 92.6%

  • 5’8, 175lbs, Sophomore

Tyler Ervin, SJSU, RB, 90.6%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Senior

Bishop Louie, Tulsa, WR, 88.1%

  • 5’10, 170lbs, Sophomore

Maurice Thomas, Miami OH, RB, 88.1%

  • 5’11, 176lb, Freshman

Brisly Estime, Syracuse, WR, 87.9%

  • 5’9, 178lbs, Junior

Jakeem Grant, Texas Tech, WR, 85.7%

  • 5’7, 168lbs, Senior

Teddy Ruben, Troy, WR, 85.6%

  • 5’7, 161lbs, Senior

KaVontae Turpin, TCU, WR, 84.6%

  • 5’9, 152lbs, Freshman

Derek Keaton, Georgia Southern, WR, 83.1%

  • 5’11, 185lbs, Senior

I mixed this one up this week. I had been tracking raw yardage production (toward the goal of finding hidden value), but decided to switch to market share to see who were the true return maestros. The two names that really stand out are Tyler Ervin, who is fourth in this category and fourth in the seasonal running back category. That dude does everything for SJSU… Also, Jakeem Grant is super small, but he’s awesome in all the ways you’d hope for him to be. Athleticism is going to be huge for him when we get to draft season.

The College Football Market Share Report – Week 7 Recap

Welcome back to the college football market share report. You should know the deal by now, but if not, this is me taking a statistical approach to finding college football’s top workhorses based on their market share of their team’s yards.

How you might want to interact with this article:
1) Skim the dense parts and read the summaries at the end of each section
2) Find rockstar performances and focus on those in your film-watching endeavors
3) Leave a comment so I can make this content even more beneficial to you

Finally, if you are introduced to any new players through this article, and you end up writing about them, please link back to this work. Thanks!

Quarterbacks of the week

Treon Harris, Florida, 89.3% of team’s offensive yards

  • 17 – 32, 271 yards, 2 TD, 20 rush yards @ LSU

Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State, 88.5%

  • 28 – 38, 412 yards, 1 TD, 2 rush TD @ Ball State

Cody Clements, South Alabama, 88.1%

  • 18 – 33, 273 yards, 3 TD, 3 INT vs Arkansas State

Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut, 88.1%

  • 28 – 41, 365 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 100 rush yards, 1 rush TD vs South Florida

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State, 86.6%

  • 30 – 43, 347 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 34 rush yards, 1 rush TD vs La Tech

Deshaun Watson, Clemson, 85%

  • 27 – 41, 420 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT, 32 rush yards, 2 rush TD vs Boston College

Lamar Jackson, Louisville, 83.5%

  • 20 – 35, 307 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 32 rush yards @ Florida State

Trevone Boykin, TCU, 82.1%

  • 27 – 32, 436 yards, 4 TD, 74 rush yards, 1 rush TD @ Iowa State

Mitch Leidner, Minnesota, 82%

  • 26 – 40, 301 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 1 rush TD vs Nebraska

DaMarcus Smith, North Texas, 81.2%

  • 17 – 35, 228 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT, 122 rush yards vs WKU

To the extent that people were worried about Treon Harris being a liability to the previously-undefeated Gators, he held up his end of the bargain at LSU last weekend. If the rest of his team would have averaged more than two yards per carry, the Gators might still be undefeated. If he can play anywhere near as good from here on out, Florida will remain in the national championship hunt… For as much as everyone was on his bandwagon last year, Dak Prescott has been even more impressive. The team is down a little bit, but it’s possible that nobody plays LSU closer than they did (19-21 loss) for the rest of the year… Entering the year as one of the top breakout candidates in the nation, Clemson’s Deshaun Watson has been relatively quiet in leading the Tigers to an undefeated start. After his first real “wow” game last weekend, and with the schedule picking up, I wonder if he doesn’t start building some buzz in the next few weeks… Trevone Boykin is amazing.

Seasonal QB Leaders

Luke Falk, Washington State, 78.7% of team’s offensive yards

  • 6’4, 205lbs, Sophomore

Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State, 76.8%

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut, 76.4%

  • 6’2, 220lbs, Sophomore

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 74.3%

  • 6’0, 211lbs, Freshman

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 73.6%

  • 6’3, 227lbs, Junior

Matt Davis, SMU, 73%

  • 6’0, 212lbs, Junior

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 72.5%

  • 6’0, 219lbs, Senior

Matt Linehan, Idaho, 71.7%

  • 6’3, 214lbs, Sophomore

Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky, 70.7%

  • 6’3, 220lbs, Senior

Chuckie Keeton, Utah State, 69.8%

  • 6’2, 210lbs, Senior

Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma, 69.6%

  • 6’1, 209lbs, Junior

I’m honestly not sure what else to say about this quarterback cohort at this point. If there’s one name on the list that keeps standing out to me, it’s Luke Falk from Wazzu. He’s been outstanding the past two weeks as the Cougars have emerged as a Pac 12 North contender. They get Stanford at home on October 31 and could legitimately win the North with a victory in that contest.

Running Backs of the week

Derrick Henry, Alabama, 64.1% of team’s offensive yards

  • 32 carries, 236 yards, 2 TD, 18 rec. yards @ Texas A&M

Jahad Thomas, Temple, 62%

  • 31 carries, 199 yards, 3 TD, 25 rec. yards vs UCF

Saquon Barkley, Penn State, 61.6%

  • 26 carries, 194 yards @ Ohio State

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 56.1%

  • 25 carries, 243 yards, 4 TD, 4 rec. yards, 122 ret. yards vs UCLA

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 54.9%

  • 20 carries, 152 yards, 1 TD, 55 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ SJSU

Malik Roberson, San Jose State, 54.1%

  • 5 carries, 41 yards, 39 rec. yards vs SDSU

C.J. Jones, UCF, 48.5%

  • 19 carries, 37 yards, 28 rec. yards @ Temple

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 46.1%

  • 31 carries, 180 yards, 2 TD, 15 rec. yards vs Florida

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 43.7%

  • 22 carries, 163 yards, 2 TD, 60 rec. yards vs Louisville

Raekwon James, Kent State, 43.1%

  • 20 carries, 85 yards, 56 rec. yards, 41 ret. yards @ UMass

For as much hype as he gets, this is Derrick Henry’s first truly elite performance of the year. Interestingly, since a strong start in week 1, he’s alternated good games with underwhelming games every week… Penn State freshman Saquon Barkley had a remarkable game against Ohio State. He’s a 220lb, 18 year old who is absolutely ballin’ this year. He should be a target in everyone’s devy leagues… Christian McCaffrey says “can you hear me now?” I’ve written about him before in this space, but his value to the Stanford team cannot be overstated; HE DOES EVERYTHING for them… Leonard Fournette is still awesome, but I made the case on the most recent RotoViz College Football Show that Dalvin Cook is more valuable to his team. Both need to be in New York City for the Heisman ceremony.

Seasonal RB Leaders

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 45.5% of team’s offensive yards

  • 6’1, 230lbs, Sophomore

Jahad Thomas, Temple, 44.6%

  • 5’10, 180lbs, Junior

Devontae Booker, Utah, 42.7%

  • 6’1, 212lbs, Senior

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 41.4%

  • 5’9, 180lbs, Junior

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 40.6%

  • 5’11, 202lbs, Sophomore

Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 40%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Senior

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 38.6%

  • 5’10, 201lbs, Sophomore

Brian Hill, Wyoming, 37.8%

  • 6’1, 211lbs, Sophomore

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 37.6%

  • 6’0, 201lbs, Sophomore

Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State, 35.1%

  • 6’0, 225lbs, Junior

Saquon Barkley (SQBK), Penn State, 34.7%

  • 5’11, 22lbs, Freshman

In this week’s ESPN.com Heisman Watch poll they had Devontae Booker with only one (fifth-place) vote. Fournette, Zeke, Dalvin, Derrick Henry, and McCaffrey were all ahead of him, which I mostly “get”, but I find it reeeaaally hard to make a case that Henry has been more important for his team than Booker. So frustrating that as soon as any pre-hyped Alabama player flashes, everyone runs right back to that… If you want to talk about a dark-horse name, try out Jahad Thomas from Temple. I think there’s a real chance they could run the table, which would include wins against ranked teams Notre Dame and Memphis. If they do, don’t be surprised if Thomas sneaks into the bottom of the final Heisman voting results. October 31 vs Notre Dame is everything for him and that team… Zeke Elliott and Fournette remain the only two college backs to surpass 100 rush yards in every game this season.

Wide Receivers of the week

Chris Godwin, Penn State, 85.8% of team’s receiving yards

  • 3 receptions, 103 yards @ Ohio State

Kody Cook, Kansas State, 84.4%

  • 2 rec., 38 yards, 19 rush yards, 6 pass yards vs Oklahoma

Rodney Adams, South Florida, 63.4%

  • 5 rec., 118 yards, 3 TD @ UConn

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 63.3%

  • 10 rec., 131 yards, 6 ret. yards @ Troy

Zach Pascal, Old Dominion, 62.9%

  • 11 rec., 231 yards, 3 TD, 69 ret. yards vs Charlotte

Ricardo Louis, Auburn, 60.4%

  • 7 rec., 154 yards @ Kentucky

Pharoh Cooper, South Carolina, 58.8%

  • 7 rec., 160 yards, 1 TD, 4 ret. yards vs Vanderbilt

Devon Breaux, Tulane, 58.7%

  • 3 rec., 88 yards vs Houston

Dylan Collie, Hawaii, 57.9%

  • 7 rec., 113 yards, 1 TD @ New Mexico

Malachi Dupre, LSU, 56.9%

  • 4 rec., 115 yards, 2 TD vs Florida

In Auburn’s first game without their overhyped, overaged, dismissed receiver, Ricardo Louis had a phenomenal showing against Kentucky. The 6’2 215lb senior has hardly been a dominant force during his career, but he’s had an interesting mix of rushing and receiving production and could be an interesting name to monitor down the home stretch… Pharoh Cooper is a name more people need to know. With Spurrier out at South Carolina, it wouldn’t surprise me if third-year junior Cooper entered the draft after this season. He’s played five SEC opponents this year and four times has caught at least seven passes for 100+ yards. With rushing and return ability too, he’s a sure-thing top 100 pick in my eyes… If Malachi Dupre can string together a few more 100 yard receiving games for LSU, I’m not sure they’ll lose this season with the way Fournette is mauling in the ground game.

Service Academy footnotes: Edgar Poe (Army, 87.7%)

Seasonal WR Leaders

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 51.2% of team’s receiving yards

  • 5’10, 175lbs, Senior

BJ Johnson, Georgia Southern, 50.4%

  • 6’1, 212lbs, Junior

Daniel Braverman, Western Michigan, 46%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Junior

Pharoh Cooper, South Carolina, 45.3%

  • 5’11, 207lbs, Junior

Leonte Carroo, Rutgers, 45.1%

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 44.3%

  • 5’8, 185lbs, Senior

Tanner Gentry, Wyoming, 43.6%

  • 6’2, 201lbs, Junior

Dameon Gamblin, New Mexico, 43.5%

  • 5’10, 174lbs, Junior

Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh, 42.6%

  • 6’2, 200lbs, Junior

Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 42%

  • 6’1, 208lbs, Senior

Leonte Carroo DGAF about anything. He’s played in four games this year and has three three-touchdown games. He plays Ohio State this weekend… Tyler Boyd, welcome back… Aaron Burbridge vs Michigan’s Jourdan Lewis last weekend was one of the most entertaining college WR-CB matchups I’ve seen in a while. Burbridge now has five 100+ yard efforts in seven games, but has only found the endzone in two contests.

Service Academy footnotes: Jamir Tillman (Navy, 66.5%), Garrett Brown (Air Force, 56.2%)

Jerome Lane (Akron) footnotes: 32.1%

Tight Ends of the week

Rodney Mills, UMass, 56.1% of team’s receiving yards

  • 4 rec., 96 yards vs Kent State

Reece White, New Mexico, 36.9%

  • 3 rec., 72 yards vs Hawaii

Cody Tuttle, Eastern Michigan, 34.1%

  • 8 rec., 60 yards @ Toledo

Steven Scheu, Vanderbilt, 33.3%

  • 6 rec., 59 yards @ South Carolina

Cam Serigne, Wake Forest, 33%

  • 6 rec., 65 yards, 1 TD @ UNC

Austin Hooper, Stanford, 32.1%

  • 3 rec., 42 yards, 1 TD vs UCLA

Alec Bloom, Connecticut, 26.6%

  • 5 rec., 97 yards vs USF

O.J. Howard, Alabama, 25.4%

  • 3 rec., 35 yards @ Texas A&M

Jonnu Smith, FIU, 23.8%

  • 5 rec., 62 yards @ MTSU

Sam Browning, Eastern Michigan, 23.3%

  • 2 rec,. 41 yards, 22 rush yards @ Toledo

Vandbilt’s Steven Scheu might be a TE prospect to keep an eye on. The senior currently has 867 receiving yards for his career. If you look at BCS/Power 5 conference tight ends who have 1,000 career receiving yards and are at least 6’4, history says about 75% (36 of 48 since 2005) of guys fitting that profile will get drafted… O.J. Howard, good to see you. After three years of hype, I’m glad to know that you actually have an ounce of production to go along with the buzz… And welcome back, Jonnu Smith. Jonnu was one of my most precocious tight ends a few years back and has been up and down since.

Seasonal TE Leaders

Rodney Mills, UMass, 28.6% of team’s receiving yards

  • 6’1, 205lbs, Senior

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 28%

  • 5’11, 236lbs, Sophomore

David Morgan II, UTSA, 27%

  • 6’4, 260lbs, Senior

Gerald Everett, South Alabama, 25.7%

  • 6’4, 225lbs, Junior

Scott Orndoff, Pittsburgh, 24.1%

  • 6’5, 265lbs, Junior

Dan Vitale, Northwestern, 22.4%

  • 6’2, 235lbs, Senior

Cam Serigne, Wake Forest, 21.4%

  • 6’3, 245lbs, Sophomore

Jake Butt, Michigan, 21.3%

  • 6’6, 248lbs, Junior

Elkanah Dillon, South Florida, 21.1%

  • 6’5, 245lbs, Freshman

Matt Weiser, Buffalo, 21.1%

  • 6’5, 255lbs, Senior

Austin Hooper, Stanford, 20.8%

  • 6’4, 248lbs, Junior

Honestly, I have no idea why 6’0 205lb Rodney Smith is listed as a TE, but he is listed like that everywhere… Dan Vitale is a new name on this list. He’s technically a “super back” a.k.a an “H-Back” a.k.a. an undersized, “move” tight end, so I think he may have got lost in the positional shuffle before. With a career stat line of 120-1293-9, he could end up being a Charles Clay-like prospect if he’s got some athleticism… Austin Hooper is good to see on this list. He’s carrying the Stanford TE mantle and is one of the better prospects at that position.

Special Teams Studs of the week

Shelton Gibson, WR, West Virginia, 185 ret. yards, 1 ret. TD, 92 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Baylor

Demarcus Ayers, WR, Houston, 175 ret. yards, 1 ret. TD, 93 rec. yards, 15 rush yards, 1 rush TD @ Tulane

Tim White, WR, Arizona State, 169 ret. yards, 1 ret. TD, 25 rec. yards @ Utah

C.J. Sanders, WR, Notre Dame, 160 ret. yards vs USC

Brett Winnegan, RB, UTSA, 138 ret. yards @ So. Miss

Bralon Addison, WR, Oregon, 136 ret. yards, 78 rec. yards, 15 rush yards @ Washington

Jabrill Peppers, RB/DB, Michigan, 129 ret. yards, 35 rec. yards vs Michigan State

Donovan Lee, WR, Colorado, 129 ret. yards, 5 rec. yards, 4 rush yards vs Arizona

Devin Fuller, WR, UCLA, 128 ret. yards, 44 rec. yards @ Stanford

Victor Bolden, WR, Oregon State, 125 ret. yards, 1 ret. TD, 79 rec. yards, 8 rush yards @ Washington State

Shelton Gibson (WVU) is a problem. The next in a line of Mountaineer receivers that includes Tavon Austin, Stedman Bailey and Kevin White, Gibson made a few plays over the weekend that made me shake my head. Kid can fly!… Jabrill Peppers was a highly touted RB/DB recruit, but has mostly played on defense throughout his career. It looks like Harbaugh has reached the point of “he’s too talented to ever be on the sideline” so he’s been getting special teams and offensive touches lately too. If Harbaugh thinks he’s that good, then I am intrigued… Fill it up, Victor Bolden!

FYI, I include a section for special teams stats because my research has shown that there is hidden value in special teams performers.

Seasonal Special Teams Leaders

Byron Marshall, WR, Oregon, 96.3 return yards/g

  • 5’10, 205lbs, Senior

Brandon Smith, WR, Texas State, 93.2

  • 6’2, 170lbs, Senior

Brisly Estime, WR, Syracuse, 91.3

  • 5’9, 178lbs, Junior

Janarion Grant, WR, Rutgers, 90.3

  • 5’11, 170lbs, Junior

Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M, 88

  • 5’11, 200lbs, Freshman

Devin Fuller, WR, UCLA, 87

  • 6’0, 200lbs Senior

Brett Winnegan, RB, UTSA, 86

  • 5’9, 185lbs, Freshman

Tim White, WR, Arizona State, 85.5

  • 5’11, 185lbs, Junior

Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford, 83.7

  • 6’0, 201lbs, Sophomore

Maurice Thomas, RB, Miami OH, 79.7

  • 5’11, 176lbs, Freshman

This is your weekly reminder: Christian Kirk is downright ridiculous!

Final thought – would you check out the new RotoViz College Football Podcast and make sure you’re subscribing to the RotoViz Radio feed on iTunes?

(cover photo credit to PennStateLive on Flickr)

The College Football Market Share Report – Week 6 Recap

Welcome to the College Football Market Share Report, where each week I’ll be running through the players who are shouldering an exceptional percentage of their team’s offense.

By tracking these stats on a weekly basis in season, my hope is that we can more easily identify exceptional talents before everyone else does.

Note that the commentary below will highlight the most recent week’s top performers as well as seasonal leaders. Also, since this is somewhat of an experimental article, I’m going to ask for your feedback on how this should evolve moving forward, so feel free to leave a comment.

Be warned that this article is dense with numbers. I’d recommend skimming through the names and then checking out the blurbs at the bottom of each section. To be included, a player must have played at least three games.

**Finally, if you are introduced to any new players through this article, and you end up writing about them, please link back to this work. Thanks!**

Quarterbacks of the week

Brad Kaaya, Miami (FL), 91.5%

  • 29 – 42, 405 pass yards, 3 TD @ Florida State

Dalton Sturm, UTSA, 87%

  • 18 – 27, 227 pass yards, 4 TD, 2 INT, 34 rush yards vs Louisiana Tech

Eric Dungey, Syracuse, 86.2%

  • 21 – 34, 232 pass yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 31 rush yards, 1 rush TD @ USF

Justin Holman, UCF, 85.4%

  • 27 – 50, 255 pass yards, 1 TD, 3 INT, 14 rush yards vs UConn

John Wolford, Wake Forest, 83.1%

  • 11 – 25, 109 pass yards, 1 INT, 9 rush yards @ Boston College

Joshua Dobbs, Tennessee, 82.9%

  • 25 – 42, 312 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 118 rush yards, 2 rush TD vs Georgia

Brandon Allen, Arkansas, 82.7%

  • 15 – 32, 176 pass yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 6 rush yards @ Alabama

Jeff Driskel, Louisiana Tech, 82.2%

  • 28 – 44, 351 pass yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 14 rush yards @ UTSA

Wes Lunt, Illinois, 81.8%

  • 25 – 42, 317 pass yards, 1 TD @ Iowa

Riley Neal, Ball State, 81.7%

  • 31 – 53, 393 pass yards, 4 TD, 1 INT, 18 rush yards @ Northern Illinois

Playing most of the game from behind, Brad Kaaya had a brilliant game on the road against the Seminoles. Only a sophomore, he’s putting together a pretty solid career and could emerge as one of the most coveted 2017-eligible passers. If and when the hype gets going next summer, it will probably be this game that people talk about… Junior QB Joshua Dobbs was marvelous against Georgia. With one of the deepest receiving corps. in America, and talent throughout the roster, more games like this from Dobbs would go a long way toward putting the Vols back on the map.

Seasonal QB Leaders

Luke Falk, Washington State, 79.6%

  • 6’4, 205lbs, Sophomore

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 77.1%

  • 6’0, 211lbs, Freshman

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 75%

  • 6’3, 227lbs, Junior

Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky, 74.9%

  • 6’3, 220lbs, Senior

Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State, 74.2%

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Matt Linehan, Idaho, 73.9%

  • 6’3, 214lbs, Sophomore

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 73.3%

  • 6’0, 219lbs, Senior

Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut, 73.2%

  • 6’2, 220lbs, Sophomore

Matt Davis, SMU, 73%

  • 6’0, 212lbs, Junior

Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma, 73%

  • 6’1, 209lbs, Junior

Okay, so maybe I jinxed the Baker Mayfield for Heisman campaign in last week’s article, but it’s not like he played horribly in the loss against the Longhorns; his offensive line got annihilated… Brandon Doughty has now thrown 15 touchdowns in his last three games compared to only one interception. As a sixth-year senior I’m a little skeptical of his prospect status because of his age (think: Brandon Weeden to a lesser extent), but I should probably just relax and learn to love him as a fun & prolific college player… Luke Falk was brilliant in Wazzu’s upset road win against Oregon and, frankly, he’s been brilliant all year. His worst performance saw him complete “only 65.9%” of his passes. Still just a sophomore, don’t be surprised if he goes Graham Harrell over the next 15 months and finishes in the top 10 in the Heisman voting.

Running Backs of the week

Devontae Booker, Utah, 61.4%

  • 34 carries, 222 yards, 2 TD, 45 rec yards vs Cal

Jordan Canzeri, Iowa, 56.7%

  • 43 carries, 256 yards, 1 TD, 15 rec yards, 1 rec TD vs Illinois

Royce Freeman, Oregon, 54.8%

  • 27 carries, 246 yards, 2 TD, 46 rec yards, 1 rec TD vs Washington State

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 49.9%

  • 22 carries, 222 yards, 2 TD, 47 rec yards, 1 rec TD vs Miami FL

Mike Warren, Iowa State, 49.5%

  • 23 carries, 245 yards @ Texas Tech

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 49%

  • 30 carries, 148 yards, 3 TD, 49 rec yards @ Hawaii

Myles Gaskin, Washington, 45.2%

  • 22 carries, 134 yards, 1 TD, 1 rec yard @ USC

Brian Hill, Wyoming, 43.6%

  • 24 carries, 128 yards, 6 rec. yards @ Air Force

Shannon Brooks, Minnesota, 43.1%

  • 17 carries, 176 yards, 1 TD @ Purdue

C.J. Prosise, Notre Dame, 40.3%

  • 21 carries, 129 yards, 3 TD, 56 rec. yards vs Navy

Speaking of Heisman, has anyone been more valuable to their team this year than Devontae Booker? In a huge national-spotlight game, Booker carried his team to a victory over Cal and has been a workhorse all year. In addition to his rushing prowess he has also accounted for 21% of Utah’s receiving yards for the year. To put that in perspective, buzzy prospect Laquon Treadwell has accounted for 25% of Ole Miss’ receiving yards… Overall there were so many good rushing performances this week. Hat tip to up-and-comer Mike Warren… C.J. Prosise has become a monster for Notre Dame… Royce Freeman almost single-handedly got Oregon past Wazzu.

Seasonal RB Leaders

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 48.5%

  • 5’10, 201lbs, Sophomore

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 45.4%

  • 6’1, 230lbs, Sophomore

Devontae Booker, Utah, 44%

  • 5’11, 212lbs, Senior

Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 41.5%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Senior

Jahad Thomas, Temple, 41%

  • 5’10, 180lbs, Junior

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 39.9%

  • 5’11, 202lbs, Sophomore

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 38.8%

  • 5’9, 180lbs, Junior

Brian Hill, Wyoming, 36.9%

  • 6’1, 211lbs, Sophomore

Larry Rose III, New Mexico State, 35.7%

  • 5’11, 184lbs, Sophomore

Jordan Canzeri, Iowa, 35.5%

  • 5’9, 192lbs, Senior

If we want to talk about the Heisman as a “most valuable player” type award (sorry, I’m not sure why I keep talking about the Heisman), why shouldn’t Dalvin Cook or Jordan Canzeri get more buzz? To different degrees, the market was bearish on both these teams coming into 2015 and they’ve been the driving forces for getting their teams to their current undefeated perches… To this point in the season, Leonard Fournette and Ezekiel Elliott are the only players in the country who have rushed for 100+ yards in all of their teams’ games. Nick Chubb was on track for that too until his injury against Tennessee. For what it’s worth, Ezekiel Elliott barely missed the top 10 in this metric, as he has accounted for 33.2% of Ohio State’s yards this season.

Wide Receivers of the week

Jerico Richardson, Nevada, 72.9%

  • 9 receptions, 121 yards, 1 TD vs New Mexico

Cole Freytag, UTEP, 69.2%

  • 2 rec., 81 yards, 1 TD @ FIU

Leonte Carroo, Rutgers, 64.4%

  • 7 rec., 134 yards, 3 TD vs Michigan State

Marcus Johnson, Texas, 63.6%

  • 4 rec., 35 yards, 1 TD vs Oklahoma

Cortez Lewis, Wake Forest, 59.6%

  • 5 rec., 65 yards @ Boston College

Jerminic Smith, Iowa, 59%

  • 4 rec., 118 yards vs Illinois

Charlie Callinan, Boston College, 56.8%

  • 2 rec., 42 yards vs Wake Forest

Tim White, Arizona State, 55.4%

  • 7 rec., 144 yards, 2 TD, 82 return yards vs Colorado

Calvin Ridley, Alabama, 53.4%

  • 9 rec., 140 yards, 1 TD vs Arkansas

JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC, 52.6%

  • 6 rec., 82 yards vs Washington

I gave Leonte Carroo a shoutout on the new RotoViz College Football Show for his performance against Michigan State. In a vacuum, his 7-134-3 stat line is impressive, but it becomes even more so when you consider that he was suspended from the team for the last three weeks and practiced twice before going bonkers against one of the nation’s best teams and defenses… There’s Calvin Ridley again, having a second huge game in a row for Alabama. The true freshman is playing a huge role for them. One thing to note, though, is that it looks like he’s a 21 year old true freshman. Not sure how that works, but definitely creates some confusion for his prospect status… ASU receiver Tim White has been pretty average for the Sun Devils overall, but this last week’s performance might make that ASU-Colorado game worth checking out just to see him… Hi, JuJu 😉

Service Academy footnotes: Garrett Brown (Air Force, 73.8%), Jamir Tillman (Navy, 72.7%)

Seasonal WR Leaders

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 50.6%

  • 5’8, 185lbs, Senior

BJ Johnson, Georgia Southern, 50.4%

  • 6’1, 212lbs, Junior

Dameon Gamblin, New Mexico, 49.5%

  • 5’10, 174lbs, Junior

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 48.8%

  • 5’10, 175lbs, Senior

Leonte Carroo, Rutgers, 47.7%

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Daniel Braverman, Western Michigan, 46.5%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Junior

Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh, 44.4%

  • 6’2, 200lbs, Junior

Tanner Gentry, Wyoming, 44.1%

  • 6’2, 201lbs, Junior

Jordan Villamin, Oregon State, 43%

  • 6’5, 231lbs, Sophomore

Ajalen Holley, Louisiana-Monroe, 42%

  • 5’10, 193lbs, Junior

I don’t know too much about Carlos Harris, but maybe it’s time to watch him play. The senior has been pretty solid throughout his career and also has some rushing and special teams production to boost his profile. He could be a sneaky-good small-conference prospect that plays a role on the NFL level, like Albert Wilson or Willie Snead… The most premium prospects on this leaderboard are Carroo, Boyd and Villamin… if you’re wondering about BJ Johnson, who has some decent size, know that his high market share is a function of him playing in an option offense, so there are very limited receiving opportunities (think: Demaryius Thomas at Georgia Tech).

Service Academy footnotes: Jamir Tillman (Navy, 66.5%), Garrett Brown (Air Force, 56.6%)

Tight Ends of the week

Jerome Lane, Akron, 46.8%

  • 4 receptions, 104 yards, 2 TD @ Eastern Michigan

David Morgan II, UTSA, 37.4%

  • 9 rec., 85 yards, 2 TD vs Louisiana Tech

Joshua Perkins, Washington, 34.8%

  • 4 rec., 57 yards, 1 TD @ USC

Marcus Smith, North Texas, 32%

  • 3 rec., 39 yards vs Portland State

Stephen Anderson, California, 29.1%

  • 6 rec., 99 yards @ Utah

Kivon Cartwright, Colorado State, 28.5%

  • 2 rec., 43 yards vs Boise State

Scott Orndoff, Pittsburgh, 28.4%

  • 2 rec., 63 yards, 1 TD vs Virginia

Brandon Lingen, Minnesota, 26.8%

  • 3 rec., 22 yards, 2 TD @ Purdue

A.J. Williams, Michigan, 26.8%

  • 4 rec., 48 yards vs Northwestern

Connor Cella, Rice, 26.8%

  • 3 rec,. 76 yards, 1 TD @ Florida Atlantic

I’m totally going to cheat here and say that Jerome Lane Jr. is a tight end, when really he’s not. He’s something different and probably more exciting. The 6’3 220lb sophomore appeared in 12 games last year for Akron as a linebacker. This year, as a wide receiver conversion, he is leading the team in receiving yards and making boss plays like the one below. The reason he’s here and not in the WR section is because he appears in my data set as an LB, so he only revealed himself when I removed the WRs to look at the TEs. As a 19 year old sophomore, there’s some serious age-production upside here to monitor over the next few years. Oh, and I should probably mention his genetic upside, too: his dad, Jerome Lane was a first round pick in the 1988 NBA Draft. You may remember him for his famous “send it in, Jerome!” glass-shattering dunk at Pitt. Here is one of Lane’s two touchdown receptions from last weekend.  (I tried to get the embed to work, but it’s not, so just click the link.)

https://vine.co/v/eEz9DbuwLiZ/embed/simple 

Service Academy footnotes: Kelvin White (Army, 67.3%)

Seasonal TE Leaders

Gerald Everett, South Alabama, 29.5%

  • 6’4, 225lbs, Junior

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 28%

  • 5’11, 236lbs, Sophomore

David Morgan II, UTSA, 27.7%

  • 6’4, 260lbs, Senior

Jake Butt, Michigan, 24.1%

  • 6’6, 248lbs, Junior

Scott Orndoff, Pittsburgh, 24.1%

  • 6’5, 265lbs, Junior

Matt Weiser, Buffalo, 21.3%

  • 6’5, 255lbs, Senior

Elkanah Dillon, USF, 21.1%

  • 6’5, 245lbs, Freshman

Chris Loving, North Texas, 20.9%

  • 6’4, 258lbs, Senior

Ben McCord, Central Michigan, 20.6%

  • 6’4, 240lbs, Senior

Connor Cella, Rice, 20.1%

  • 6’3, 260lbs, Junior

I had a thought about Jaylen Samuels this week; he’s too small to be a tight end in the NFL, but maybe he can be a highly effective 3rd down back. In addition to his receiving prowess, he’s also carried the ball 34 times in his two-year career to the tune of 8.2 ypc… In addition to his huge game this week, David Morgan II continues to be among the seasonal leaders. Like Carlos Harris, I think it’s time to find some game highlights on this small-school prospect to see what’s really going on here.

Special Teams Studs of the week

Brandon Smith, Texas State, WR, 158 return yards, 1 TD @ Louisiana-Lafayette

Reggie Davis, Georgia, WR, 143 ret. yards, 1 ret. TD, 101 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Tennessee

Jeremiah Bryson, Middle Tennessee, RB, 124 ret. yards, 79 yards from scrimmage @ Western Kentucky

KaVontae Turpin, TCU, WR, 122 ret. yards, 57 rec. yards @ Kansas State

Jovon Durante, West Virginia, WR, 122 ret. yards, 21 rec. yards vs OK State

Jeffrey Wilson, North Texas, RB, 119 ret. yards, 49 rush yards vs Portland State

Raekwon James, Kent State, RB, 114 ret. yards, 81 yards from scrimmage @ Toledo

Aregeros Turner, Northern Illinois, WR, 114 ret. yards, 70 rec. yards vs Ball State

Brett Winnegan, UTSA, RB, 109 ret. yards vs Louisiana Tech

Quay Johnson, East Carolina, WR, 109 ret. yards @ BYU

Pereese Joas, Hawaii, RB, 109 ret. yards vs San Diego State

Reggie Davis is the on name that stands out here. He had a marvelous multi-faceted game against Tennessee, but dropped what would have been the game winning touchdown on a gorgeous pass from Greyson Lambert late in the fourth quarter.

Service Academy footnotes: Dishan Romine (Navy, 136 yards)

Seasonal Special Teams Leaders

Janarion Grant, Rutgers, WR, 104.4 return yards/game

  • 5’11, 170lbs, Junior

Brisly Estime, Syracuse, WR, 100.0

  • 5’9, 178lbs, Junior

Byron Marshall, Oregon, WR, 96.3

  • 5’10, 205lbs, Senior

Brandon Smith, Texas State, WR, 93.2

  • 6’2, 170lbs, Senior

Quay Johnson, East Carolina, WR, 83.8

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Sophomore

Christian Kirk, Texas A&M, WR, 83.4

  • 5’11, 200lbs, Freshman

J.D. McKissic, Arkansas State, WR, 81.2

  • 5’11, 193lbs, Senior

Devin Fuller, UCLA, WR, 78.8

  • 6’0, 200lbs, Senior

Aregeros Turner, Northern Illinois, WR 78.3

  • 5’11, 178lbs, Junior

Brett Winnegan, UTSA, RB, 77.3

  • 5’9, 185lbs, Freshman

I’ve heaped praise on Byron Marshall, Christian Kirk and J.D. McKissic in the past, so anything more would be redundant at this point. Kirk and Texas A&M play a big game this weekend and I’m excited to watch.

Questions

  1. I’m thinking about doing a “mid season all-conference teams” write up next week for each of the power 5. Is that something you’d want to read? I feel like there are some really good performances that are getting overlooked because there are 120+ teams and only ten players on these leaderboards.
  2. What else could I provide here to make this article more helpful for you?
  3. Would you like access to the data set that helped generate this article? If so, you could email me at THECFX at GMAIL dot COM, or I could just set up a link with a free download. Let me know.

The College Football Market Share Report – Week 5 Recap

Welcome to the College Football Market Share Report, where each week I’ll be running through the players who are shouldering an exceptional percentage of their team’s offense.

By tracking these stats on a weekly basis in season, my hope is that we can more easily identify exceptional talents before everyone else does.

Note that the commentary below will highlight the most recent week’s top performers as well as seasonal leaders. Also, since this is somewhat of an experimental article, I’m going to ask for your feedback on how this should evolve moving forward, so feel free to leave a comment. For instance, this week I’ve added height and weight based on a reader request.

Be warned that this article is dense with numbers. I’d recommend skimming through the names and then checking out the blurbs at the bottom of each section.

**Finally, if you are introduced to any new players through this article, and you end up writing about them, please link back to this work. Thanks!**

Quarterbacks of the week

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 93.2%

  • 21 – 36, 232 pass yards, 3 TD, 3 INT, 28 rush yards vs. Georgia Southern

Brent Stockstill, MTSU, 92.8%

  • 32 – 51, 286 pass yards, 1 TD, 11 rush yards vs Vanderbilt

Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State, 91.9%

  • 18 – 29, 394 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, -22 rush yards, 1 rush TD vs Liberty

Chad Kelly, Ole Miss, 91.2%

  • 26 – 40, 259 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 40 rush yards @ Florida

Luke Falk, Washington State, 90.3%

  • 35 – 49, 389 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 1 INT, -25 rush yards, 1 rush TD @ Cal

Riley Neal, Ball State, 90.1%

  • 23 – 37, 236 pass yards, 1 pass TD vs Toledo

Ryan Metz, UTEP, 88%

  • 23 – 49, 216 pass yards, 1 TD, 4 INT, 26 rush yards vs UTSA

Thomas Sirk, Duke, 87.7%

  • 18 – 36, 195 pass yards, 5 rush yards vs Boston College

DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame, 87.2%

  • 19 – 34, 321 pass yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 60 rush yards, 1 rush TD @ Clemson

Patrick Towles, Kentucky, 84.6%

  • 29 – 42, 329 pass yards, 3 pass TD, 2 INT, -4 rush yards, 1 rush TD vs EKU

The two names that stand out to me on this list are Chad Kelly and DeShone Kizer, both quarterbacks from top 10 teams that lost on the road this week. Yes, they both had an interception, but otherwise performed pretty impressively. I think this just speaks to the idea that every quarterback needs a running game to keep the defense honest.

Seasonal QB Leaders

Luke Falk, Washington State, 82.8%

  • 6’4, 205lbs, SO

Garrett Smith, Lousiana-Monroe, 80.7%

  • 6’0, 211lbs, FR

Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky, 78.6%

  • 6’3, 220lbs, SR

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 76%

  • 6’0, 219lbs, SR

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 75%

  • 6’3, 227lbs, JR

Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State, 74.5%

  • 6’1, 215lbs, SR

Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut, 74.5%

  • 6’2, 220lbs, SO

Matt Linehan, Idaho, 73.9%

  • 6’3, 214lbs, SO

Matt Davis, SMU, 72.9%

  • 6’0, 212lbs, JR

Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma, 72.8%

  • 6’1, 209lbs, JR

Of quarterbacks on top 25 teams, Baker Mayfield is pretty easily the “best” quarterback, in terms of market share of offense. Obviously his passing contributions go a long way, but Mayfield gets a huge boost from his legs, having accounted for 21% of Oklahoma’s rushing yards. Prior to a season closing stretch @Baylor, vs TCU, @OK State, he’s got a good chance to get his team to 9-0 and get into the discussion as a serious contender for the Heisman … elsewhere in the top 25, Mason Rudolph (Oklahoma State) has quietly amassed 66.8% of his offense, while national-sweetheart Trevone Boykin (TCU) stands at 64.9%. For reference, the last four Heisman-winning quarterbacks averaged 64.6% of their team’s yards… the best top 25 quarterback from a conference other than the Big 12 is Ole Miss’s Chad Kelly (62.9%).

Running Backs of the week

Jordan Canzeri, Iowa, 62.9%

  • 125 rush yards, 14 rec yards @ Wisconsin

Larry Rose III, New Mexico State, 62.5%

  • 260 rush yards, 3 rush TD @ New Mexico

Alex Gardner, FIU, 62.2%

  • 59 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 58 rec. yards @ UMass

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 60.4%

  • 160 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 12 rec. yards @ Marshall

Brian Hill, Wyoming, 57.9%

  • 208 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 8 rec. yards @ Appalachian State

Arkeel Newsome, Connecticut, 57%

  • 68 rush yards, 63 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD, 17 return yards @ BYU

Marcus Cox, Appalachian State, 56.7%

  • 178 rush yards, 1 rush TD vs Wyoming

Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State, 55.3%

  • 274 rush yards, 3 rush TD, 12 rec. yards @ Indiana

Jarveon Williams, UTSA, 53.1%

  • 133 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 45 rec. yards @ UTEP

Markell Jones, Purdue, 52.8%

  • 157 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 2 rec. yards @ Michigan State

Ezekiel Elliott brought his Superman cape to Bloomington and almost single-handedly lifted the Buckeyes past the Hoosiers. Elliott’s young dominance puts him in rare company… Iowa’s Jordan Canzeri not only lifted Iowa past Wisconsin, but he’s also elevated the program into the top 25 in both polls for the first time since 2010… Purdue’s Markell Jones is the reigning Mr. Football in Indiana and made his first big splash on the national scene against Michigan State. Recently turning 19 years old, he’s an exciting true freshman to monitor.

Seasonal RB Leaders

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 51%

  • 6’1, 230lbs, SO

Aaron Jones, UTEP, 51%

  • 5’10, 205lbs, JR

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 48.5%

  • 5’10, 201lbs, SO

Jahad Thomas, Temple, 45.6%

  • 5’10, 180lbs, JR

Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 43.2%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, SR

Devontae Booker, Utah, 39.2%

  • 5’11, 212lbs, SR

Larry Rose III, New Mexico State, 38.7%

  • 5’11, 184lbs, SO

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 36.6%

  • 5’11, 202lbs, SO

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 36.2%

  • 5’9, 180lbs, JR

Brian Hill, Wyoming, 35.9%

  • 6’1, 211lbs, SO

BREAKING: Leonard Fournette is having a dominant season… Confession: I just realized that UTEP’s Aaron Jones is out for the season with an ankle injury. The minimum number of games played to appear in the seasonal leaderboards is two; he’ll phase out next week… I need to find an Old Dominion game to watch. Ray Lawry was solid last year and has been amazing so far this year too.

Wide Receivers of the week

Edgar Poe, Army, 100%

  • 32 rec yards, 15 return yards @ Penn State

Garrett Brown, Air Force, 87.7%

  • 64 rec. yards, 45 rush yards, 15 return yards @ Navy

Matt VandeBerg, Iowa, 79.2%

  • 61 rec. yards @ Wisconsin

Ajalen Holley, Louisiana-Monroe, 71.6%

  • 166 rec. yards vs Georgia Southern

Thadd Smith, Boston College, 70.2%

  • 99 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Duke

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 67.7%

  • 136 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Southern Mississippi

Calvin Ridley, Alabama, 63.2%

  • 120 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Georgia

Roger Lewis, Bowling Green, 62%

  • 201 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Buffalo

Malcolm Mitchell, Georgia, 61.3%

  • 65 rec. yards vs Alabama

Zach Pascal, Old Dominion, 59.4%

  • 60 rec. yards, 24 ret. yards @ Marshall

Alabama freshman Calvin Ridley came into this season as the #1 (or #2, depending on where you look) wide receiver recruit in the country and broke out in a big way against Georgia. For a Crimson Tide team still trying to replace Amari Cooper, and injured an Robert Foster, Ridley’s emergence could have huge implications… BG’s Roger Lewis now has three games of at least 200 yards and one touchdown this season. That’s a good career for most people… And, yes, there’s a guy named Edgar Poe on this list. Nevermore shall I include service academy players.

Seasonal WR Leaders

Jamir Tillman, Navy, 65.5%

  • 6’4, 206lbs, JR

Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh, 53%

  • 6’2, 200lbs, JR

Garrett Brown, Air Force, 52.9%

  • 5’9, 180lbs, SR

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 51.2%

  • 5’8, 185lbs, SR

BJ Johnson, Georgia Southern, 50.4%

  • 6’1, 212lbs, JR

Dameon Gamblin, New Mexico, 49%

  • 5’10, 174lbs, JR

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 48.8%

  • 5’10, 175lbs, SR

Jordan Villamin, Oregon State, 46.6%

  • 6’5, 231lbs, SO

Daniel Braverman, Western Michigan, 45.2%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, JR

Tanner Gentry, Wyoming, 44.9%

  • 6’2, 201lbs, JR

Off the bye week, and thanks to the slide of others, Daniel Braverman makes his first appearance on this list. I came into this season, and still am, higher on his teammate Corey Davis, but what Braverman has done so far this season has been spectacular. He has at least 10 receptions and 100 receiving yards in every game, including contests against Michigan State and Ohio State.

Tight Ends of the week

Cethan Carter, Nebraska, 60%

  • 63 rec. yards @ Illinois

Sam Browning, Eastern Michigan, 54%

  • 87 rec. yards @ LSU

Bucky Hodges, Virginia Tech, 46.2%

  • 42 rec. yards vs Pittsburgh

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 41%

  • 75 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Louisville

Cam Serigne, Wake Forest, 38.6%

  • 83 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Florida State

Colin Jeter, LSU, 35%

  • 28 rec. yards vs Eastern Michigan

Jason Reese, Missouri, 34.6%

  • 47 rec. yards vs South Carolina

Jake Butt, Michigan, 33.9%

  • 61 rec. yards @ Maryland

Jeremiah Gaines, SMU, 33.2%

  • 96 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs ECU

Sean Price, South Florida, 33.2%

  • 66 rec. yard vs Memphis

Hey, Bucky Hodges, good to see you! The 20 year old, third-year TE from Virginia Tech came into the season with high expectations and has been solid, if unspectacular so far. It’s good to see him surpass 40 yards in three of his last four games.

Seasonal TE Leaders

Elkanah Dillon, USF, 32.5%

  • 6’5, 245lbs, FR

Gerald Everett, South Alabama, 29.5%

  • 6’4, 225lbs, JR

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 28.3%

  • 5’11, 236lbs, SO

David Morgan II, UTSA, 25.6%

  • 6’4, 260lbs, SR

Jake Butt, Michigan, 24.5%

  • 6’6, 248lbs, JR

Ben McCord, Central Michigan, 22.3%

  • 6’4, 240lbs, SR

Scott Orndoff, Pittsburgh, 22.1%

  • 6’5, 265lbs, JR

Matt Weiser, Buffalo, 21.3%

  • 6’5, 255lbs, SR

Cam Serigne, Wake Forest, 21.2%

  • 6’3, 245lbs, SO

Hayden Plinke, UTEP, 21%

  • 6’4, 255lbs, JR

The three seniors on this list – Morgan II, McCord and Weiser all have at least one 100-yard game this season. I know that athletic underclassmen like O.J. Howard, Evan Engram and Hunter Henry get lots of attention, but these three are really helping their prospect status in their final season.

Special Teams Studs of the week

Nyheim Hines, NC State, WR, 169 return yards vs Louisville

Quay Johnson, East Carolina, WR 134 ret. yards @ SMU

Tim White, Arizona State, WR, 129 ret. yards @ UCLA

Artavis Scott, Clemson, WR, 128 ret. yards vs Notre Dame

Eddie Daugherty, Eastern Michigan, WR, 126 ret. yards @ LSU

Jordan Franks, UCF, WR, 125 ret. yards @ Tulane

Charles Nelson, Oregon, WR, 124 ret. yards @ Colorado

Maurice Thomas, Miami OH, RB, 120 ret. yards @ Kent State

Teddy Ruben, Troy, WR, 112 ret. yards vs South Alabama

Kermit Whitfield, Florida State, WR, 111 ret. yards @ Wake Forest

Artavis Scott is the most exciting name here. The Clemson sophomore only had one return attempt in 2014, but already has 13 so far this season. The fact that the coaches trusted him in the return game in the rainy conditions against Notre Dame is an encouraging sign… Jordan Franks is a name to keep an eye on. He was a 3-star recruit as a LB / WR and appeared in 13 games on defense as a freshman in 2014. He’s now playing on offense and, apparently, returning kicks. At 6’3 225lbs, he must possess some pretty unique athleticism.

Seasonal Special Teams Leaders

Janarion Grant, Rutgers, WR, 109 return yards/game

  • 5’11, 170lbs, JR

Brisly Estine, Syracuse, WR, 108.8

  • 5’9, 178lbs, JR

Byron Marshall, Oregon, WR, 96.3

  • 5’10, 205lbs, SR

Teddy Ruben, Troy, WR, 83.5

  • 5’7, 161bs, SR

Christian Kirk, Texas A&M, WR, 83.4

  • 5’11, 200lbs, FR

J.D. McKissic, Arkansas State, WR, 81.2

  • 5’11, 193lbs, SR

Kylen Towner, Western Kentucky, WR, 80.2

  • 5’8, 175lbs, SO

Eric Hawkins, Arkansas, WR, 79.5

  • 5’11, 180lbs, JR

Quay Johnson, East Carolina, WR, 79.4

  • 5’10, 177lbs, SO

Devin Fuller, UCLA, WR, 78.8

  • 6’0, 200lbs, SR

Byron Marshall is out for the year with injury and Christian Kirk is still awesome; he received four carries last game in addition to WR and return duties. Translation: Kevin Sumlin, one of the best offensive-minded coaches on planet Earth, has realized that this kid needs touches however he can manufacture them… J.D. McKissic is a small school guy who accounted for 29% of his team’s receiving yards in 2012 (age 19 season). He has more than 2,500 receiving yards for his career and 200 rush yards. He could be a sneaky prospect to keep an eye on.

Questions

  1. The defensive metrics were removed this week. Do you want them back?
  2. What else could I provide to make this article more helpful for you?
  3. Would you like access to the data set that helped generate this article? If so, you could email me at THECFX at GMAIL dot COM, or I could just set up a link with a free download. Let me know.

 

The College Football Market Share Report – Week 4 Recap

Welcome to the College Football Market Share Report, where each week I’ll be running through the players who are shouldering an exceptional percentage of their team’s offense AND defense. Yes, this week I’ve added three defensive metrics to the conversation. I also, separated out the Tight End group, so we can start monitoring them.

In the past, my prospect analysis has typically waited until after the season to get going, but by tracking these stats on a weekly basis in season we can more easily identify exceptional talents before everyone else does.

Note that the commentary below will highlight the most recent week’s top performers as well as seasonal leaders. Also, since this is somewhat of an experimental article, I’m going to ask for your feedback on how this should evolve moving forward, so feel free to leave a comment.

Be warned that this article is dense with numbers. I’d recommend skimming through the names and then checking out the blurbs at the bottom of each section.

**Finally, if you are introduced to any new players through this article, and you end up writing about them, please link back to this work. Thanks!**

Quarterbacks of the week

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss, 92.1% of offensive yards

447 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, -25 rush yards @ Nebraska

Ryan Metz, UTEP, 90.2%

275 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 46 rush yards vs Incarnate Word

Cameron Coffman, Wyoming, 87.7%

366 pass yards, 4 TD, 2 INT, -8 rush yards vs New Mexico

Alex McGough, FIU, 87.7%

263 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 7 rush yards @ Louisiana Tech

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State, 87.1%

270 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 14 rush yards @ Auburn

Kyle Allen, Texas A&M, 85.8%

358 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 5 rush yards @ Arkansas

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 85.3%

402 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 58 rush yards @ Purdue

David Blough, Purdue, 84.5%

340 pass yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 11 rush yards, 1 rush TD vs BG

Cody Kessler, USC, 83.7%

375 pass yards, 5 TD, 1 INT, 6 rush yards @ Arizona State

Brenden Motley, Virginia Tech, 83.4%

281 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 85 rush yards, 1 rush TD @ ECU

For as much buzz as Dak Prescott got last year, it feels like he’s under-appreciated this year, despite posting nearly as impressive numbers through four games… Let’s just appreciate BG’s Matt Johnson for a moment; he’s thrown for 400 yards in each game this season, including three road contests against Power-5 foes (@Tennessee, @Maryland, @Purdue). He won two of those games.

QB Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Offensive Yards

Luke Falk, Washington State, 80.5%

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 79.3%

Brandon Doughty, WKU, 78.0%

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 77.0%

Cameron Coffman, Wyoming, 76.7%

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 76.5%

Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut, 75.2%

Matt Lineham, Idaho, 73.9%

Matt Davis, SMU, 73.3%

Johnny McCrary, Vanderbilt, 72.9%

Last week I got a question about “what’s a good market share for quarterbacks?” To be honest, at this point, the metric is more descriptive than predictive, but that doesn’t make it any less interesting in my opinion. Here are how recent Heisman-winning quarterbacks faired in this metric in their trophy-claiming campaign.

Robert Griffin III (2011) – 65.4%

Johnny Manziel (2012) – 70.5%

Jameis Winston (2013) – 58.8%

Marcus Mariota (2014) – 63.7%

Obviously none of the players included in this week’s leaderboard is in the Heisman conversation (or on a team good enough to get them the national spotlight) but it’s something to keep an eye on. For what it’s worth, TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin is at 65.2% so far.

Running backs of the week

Kalif Phillips, Charlotte, 80.1% of team’s offensive yards

165 rush yards vs Florida Atlantic

Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 63.5%

300 rush yards, 3 rush TD, 4 rec. 45 rec. yards vs Fresno State

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 59.1%

244 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 1 rec., 7 rec. yards @ Syracuse

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 50.0%

206 rush yards, 1 rec., 38 rec. yards, 59 ret. yards @ Oregon State

Dwayne Washington, Washington, 49.4%

109 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 3 rec., 19 rec. yards vs Cal

Tony Pittman, Marshall, 48.7%

129 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 1 rec., 6 rec. yards @ Kent State

James Butler, Nevada, 46.7%

177 rush yards, 1 rush TD @ Buffalo

Greg Howell, Florida Atlantic, 44.6%

56 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 1 rec., 19 rec. yards @ Charlotte

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 44.2%

56 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 4 rec., 51 rec. yards @ Penn State

Kenneth Dixon, Louisiana Tech, 40.7%

169 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 1 rec., 23 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs FIU

More on Leonard Fournette in a moment, but how about SJSU’s Tyler Ervin and SDSU’s Donnel Pumphrey? Both backs are making their second consecutive appearance on this list and have been prolific undersized workhorses… And shoutout to Christian McCaffrey for being the #4 workhorse RB of the week while also contributing 59 return yards in the Cardinal’s road victory over Oregon State.

RB Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Offensive Yards

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 51.9%

Aaron Jones, UTEP, 51.0%

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 45.7%

Jahad Thomas, Temple, 44.6%

Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 43.4%

Devontae Booker, Utah, 39.2%

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 38.1%

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 38.0%

Demario Richard, Arizona State, 35.6%

Jordan Howard, Indiana, 35.6%

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 35.6%

Leonard Fournette has accounted for 51.9% of LSU’s offense so far. By comparison, the last two running backs to win the Heisman accounted for the following: Reggie Bush ’05 (32.7%)  Mark Ingram ’09 (35.3%)… Keep an eye on Indiana RB Jordan Howard, who was a stud at UAB before transfering to the Hoosier program to take over the role vacated by Tevin Coleman. He takes on Ohio State this week in a game that very well might feature the two best draft-eligible RBs in America.

Receivers of the week

Jordan Williams, Ball State, 74.7% of team’s receiving yards

8 receptions, 133 rec. yards, 2 rec. TD @ Northwestern

BJ Johnson, Georgia Southern, 73.2%

4 receptions, 93 rec. yards @ Idaho

Daniel Braverman, Western Michigan, 72.8%

10 receptions, 123 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Ohio State

Drew Morgan, Arkansas, 68.9%

8 receptions, 155 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Texas A&M

DeAndre Ball, Army, 68.4%

2 receptions, 67 rec. yards @ Eastern Michigan

Ricky Jeune, Georgia Tech, 63.6%

4 receptions, 91 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Duke

Carlos Wiggins, New Mexico, 59.8%

1 reception, 64 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Wyoming

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 58.1%

8 receptions, 165 rec. yards, 2 rec. TD vs Georgia Southern

KeeSean Johnson, Fresno State, 56.6%

7 receptions, 90 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ SJSU

Quinton Pedroza, Hawaii, 55.8%

10 receptions, 134 rec. yards, 0 rec. TD @ WIsconsin

On a weekend when two of my absolute favorite WR prospects, (Tajae Sharpe and Corey Davis, both from the MAC) got their time in the national spotlight, it was Ball State’s Jordan Williams who had the show-stealing performance. He’s not quite Tajae or Corey, but he’s the biggest of the trio and has enjoyed a rock-solid career… Shoutout to Arkansas WR Drew Morgan who came through with a huge game in the absence of top target Keon Hatcher.

WR Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Receiving Yards

Jamir Tillman, Navy, 65.5%

Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh, 55.5%

Dameon Gamblin, New Mexico, 51.2%

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 50.7%

BJ Johnson, Georgia Southern, 50.4%

Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 48.3%

Jordan Villamin, Oregon State, 46.6%

Will Fuller, Notre Dame, 46.0%

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 45.7%

Bryan Holmes, Troy, 45.7%

Say hello to Oregon State WR Jordan Villamin, who is a new arrival on this leaderboard. The 6’5 230lb redshirt sophomore (20 years old) is starting to look a lot like a Mike Evans-ish prospect. If you can add him now in a devy league, I would. The kid’s stock is going to skyrocket as the country wakes up to him… And when I say “wake up”, I mean that literally; many of Oregon State’s games finish well after midnight on the east coast.

Tight Ends of the week

Matt Weiser, Buffalo, 38.8% of team’s receiving yards

10 receptions, 131 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Nevada

Ryan Yurachek, Marshall, 38.4%

4 receptions, 58 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Kent State

Joshua Perkins, Washington, 36.2%

5 receptions, 55 rec. yards vs Cal

Ethan Wolf, Tennessee, 33.3%

4 receptions, 55 rec. yards @ Florida

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 32.8%

5 receptions, 84 rec. yards, 2 rec. TD, 2 rushes, 28 rush yards @ South Alabama

Austin Hooper, Stanford, 30.7%

2 receptions, 50 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Oregon State

Steven Scheu, Vanderbilt, 29.4%

5 receptions, 57 rec. yards @ Ole Miss

Hayden Plinke, UTEP, 29.1%

4 receptions, 80 rec. yards vs Incarnate Word

Cam Serigne, Wake Forest, 27.3%

5 receptions, 72 rec. yards, 1 pass attempt vs Indiana

Bucky Hodges, Virginia Tech, 26.0%

5 receptions, 73 rec. yards @ ECU

Honestly, I don’t know very much about this crew except for Hodges and Serigne. The one name that stands out though is Matt Weiser. For one, college tight ends almost never catch 10 passes in a game unless their name is Jace Amaro or Dennis Pitta. Also, homie is 6’5 255lbs, so there’s some meat on those bones.

TE Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Receiving Yards

Gerald Everett, South Alabama, 31.1%

David Morgan II, UTSA, 26.2%

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 25.6%

Ben McCord, Central Michigan, 23.9%

Jake Butt, Michigan, 22.3%

Tyler Higbee, WKU, 22.2%

C.J. Conrad, Kentucky, 22.1%

Hayden Plinke, UTEP, 21.3%

Jerell Adams, South Carolina, 21.0%

Chris Loving, North Texas, 20.9%

If there’s an early front runner to be my top-rated TE for the 2016 draft, it’s Jake Butt. Under Harbaugh, Stanford churned out a series of solid NFL prospects and Harbaugh now appears to be working the same mojo on Michigan’s TE. Listed at 6’6 248lbs, Butt has a strong combination of production, size and pro-style experience…Jaylen Samuels interested me at first, but then I realized he’s only 5’11 and is more of an H-back.

Special Teams Studs of the week

Olamide Zaccheaus, RB, Virginia, 231 return yards vs Boise

J.D. McKissic, WR, Arkansas State, 211 @ Toledo

Brisly Estime, WR, Syracuse, 202 vs LSU

Byron Marshall, WR, Oregon, 178 vs Utah

DeAndre Reaves, WR, Marshall, 170 @ Kent State

Austin Waller, RB, Rice, 140 @ Baylor

Daje Johnson, WR, Texas, 137 vs Oklahoma State

Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State, 137 @ Penn State

Jae’Lon Oglesby, RB, Memphis, 132 vs Cincinnati

Aregeros Turner, WR, Northern Illinois, 117 @ BC

Earlier this year at Rotoviz I wrote about the hidden value of special teams stats for prospects, so I like to monitor these performances.

Special Teams Leaders – Seasonal Top 10

Janarion Grant, WR, Rutgers, 109 return yards/game, 3 return TD

Brisly Estime, WR, Syracuse, 109 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

J.D. McKissic, WR, Arkansas State, 102 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

Byron Marshall, WR, Oregon, 96 ret. yds/gm

Kylen Towner, WR, WKU, 90 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

Rashaad Penny, RB, SDSU, 90 ret. yds/gm, 2 ret. TD

Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M, 90 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

Brett Winnegan, RB, UTSA, 89 ret. yds/gm

Daje Johnson, WR, Texas, 89 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

Devin Fuller, WR, UCLA, 85 ret. yds/gm

If there’s one name here that I’m really high on (besides Christian Kirk) it is Oregon’s Byron Marshall, who I think could be a Randall Cobb-ish, multi-threat prospect.

Defensive Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Total Tackles

Kentrell Brothers, LB, Missouri, 18.8% of total team tackles

Blake Martinez, ILB, Stanford, 18.7%

Steve Longa, LB, Rutgers, 16.4%

Anthony Walker, LB, Northwestern, 16.1%

Elandon Roberts, ILB, Houston, 16.1%

Skai Moore, LB, South Carolina, 15.9%

Christian Tago, LB, San Jose State, 15.4%

Kavon Frazier, DB, Central Michigan, 15.3%

Jalen Reeves-Maybin, LB, Tennessee, 15.2%

Nick Vigil, LB, Utah State, 15.1%

If you’re looking for a reference point here, Luke Kuechly has the TWO best seasons in my IDP database for this metric going back to 2005. In his final season he tallied 22% and in his second-to-last season he accounted for 20.7%. Anything north of 17% should be held in very high regard… Kavon Frazier is the only defensive back on this list.

Defensive Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Tackles for Loss

Ben Goodman Jr., DE, Kansas, 56.3% of team’s tackles for loss

Darius Latham, DT, Indiana, 41.7%

Jerrian Roberts, DE, North Texas, 41.7%

Woody Baron, DT, Virginia Tech, 38.9%

Bernard Dawson, DE, Georgia Southern, 37.5%

Anthony Walker, LB, Northwestern, 33.3%

Jon Schobert, OLB, Wisconsin, 32.8%

Trevon Coley, DT, Florida Atlantic, 31.6%

Nick Gilbo, LB, Buffalo, 30.6%

Alvin Jones, LB, UTEP, 30.0%

Alonzo McGee, LB, Georgia State, 30.0%

Quinton Bradley, DE, Idaho, 30.0%

Dominique Tovell, LB, Louisiana-Lafayette, 30.0%

If you’re looking for a flag bearer here, look at Aaron Donald, who accounted for 33.1% of Pitt’s tackles for loss in his final season. Anything above 25% is quite good, which all of these guys are now, but expect them to come back to earth as the sample size grows… Note that Indiana’s Darius Latham has been suspended for this weekend’s game against Ohio State, which is a killer for that D… Also, Anthony Walker from Northwestern is the only player to appear on both the tackles and tackles-for-loss leaderboards.

Defensive Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Passes Broken Up

Latrell Gibbs, DB, Appalachian State, 75% of team’s PBU

Tyree Simmons, DB, Colorado State, 70%

Mike Stevens, CB, NC State, CB, 66.7%

Heath Harding, CB, Miami OH, 66.7%

D.J. May, LB, Wyoming, 60%

Nick Nelson, DB, Hawaii, 57.1%

Jalen Davis, CB, Utah State, 50%

Anthony Makransky, DB, Wyoming, 50%

Jeremiah Harris, DL, Eastern Michigan, 50%

Brian Peavy, DB, Iowa State, 50%

Avonte Maddox, DB, Pittsburgh, 50%

Kevin Vaccaro, S, Texas, 50%

Lance Austin, DB, Georgia Tech, 50%

Anything above 35% is really strong. Again, expect regression here. Oh, and say hi to another Texas Vaccaro.

Questions

  1. Did you like seeing the defensive metrics, or are those overkill?
  2. I heard some feedback that the old layout was tough to read. Is this new wordpress theme better?
  3. Would you like access to the data set that helped generate this article? If so, you could email me at THECFX at GMAIL dot COM, or I could just set up a link with a free download. Let me know.

The College Football Market Share Report – Week 3 recap

Welcome to the College Football Market Share Report, where each week I’ll be running through the players who are shouldering an exceptional percentage of their team’s offense.

In the past, my prospect analysis has typically waited until after the season to get going, but by tracking these metrics on a weekly basis in season we can more easily identify exceptional talents before everyone else does.

Note that the commentary below will highlight the most recent week’s top performers as well as seasonal leaders. Also, since this is somewhat of an experimental article, I’m going to ask for your feedback on how this should evolve moving forward, so feel free to leave a comment.

As this is somewhat dense with numbers, I’d recommend skimming through the names and then checking out the blurbs at the bottom of each section.

Quarterbacks of the week

Shuler Bentley, Old Dominion, 93.9% of team’s offensive yards

  • 151 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, -12 rush yards vs NC State

Blake Frohnapfel, UMass, 87.4%

  • 393 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, -10 rush yards vs Temple

Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky, 87.1%

  • 484 pass yards, 3 TD, 2 INT, 11 rush yards @ Indiana

P.J. Walker, Temple, 83.6%

  • 391 pass yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, -8 rush yards @ UMass

Chad Kelly, Ole Miss, 83.6%

  • 341 pass yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 21 rush yards @ Alabama

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 83.6%

  • 443 pass yards, 4 TD, 0 INT, 41 rush yards vs Memphis

Jake Browning, Washington, 83%

  • 368 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, -1 rush yards vs Utah State

C.J. Beathard, Iowa, 81.8%

  • 258 pass yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 39 rush yards vs Pitt

Jerrod Heard, Texas, 81.1%

  • 364 pass yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 163 rush yards vs California

Tyler Jones, Texas State, 79.5%

  • 310 pass yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 160 rush yards vs Southern Miss

There’s a lot to talk about here. Texas’ Jerrod Heard went bananas on national TV against Cal and drew comparisons to Vince Young… Chad “Swag” Kelly took Ole Miss on the road and defeated Alabama. No small feat. The Rebels are now the #3 ranked team in the country… It looks like Washington coach Chris Petersen (formerly at Boise) has his new Kellen Moore. Somewhat undersized freshman Jake Browning has been great so far… Finally, shoutout to Tyler Jones from Texas State, who Benjamin Allbright and I were discussing on Twitter late last week and then Jones proceeds to put up 470 yards of total offense.  Maybe undersized, maybe from a small conference, but maybe really awesome? Time will tell.

QB Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Offensive Yards

Luke Falk, Washington State, 80.5%

Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky, 78.8%

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 77.5%

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 77.0%

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 76.8%

Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut, 75.5%

Johnny McCrary, Vanderbilt, 75.1%

Matt Linehan, Idaho, 74.1%

Matt Davis, SMU, 73.4%

Blake Kemp, East Carolina, 73.2%

Nothing too surprising here – three quarterbacks from pass-happy teams leading the way – but this is probably a helpful list to keep in mind for finding undervalued DFS quarterbacks.

Running backs of the week

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 58.1% of team’s offensive yards

  • 15 rush yards, 71 receiving yards, 1 rec. TD vs NC State

Demario Richard, Arizona State, 56.8%

  • 104 rush yards, 4 receptions, 151 receiving yards, 2 rec. TD vs New Mexico

Devontae Booker, Utah, 55.8%

  • 156 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 5 receptions, 56 receiving yards @ Fresno

Paul Perkins, UCLA, 54.5%

  • 219 rush yards, 1 rush TD vs BYU

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 51.5%

  • 102 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 5 receptions, 55 receiving yards vs South Alabama

Justin Jackson, Northwestern, 50.9%

  • 120 rush yards, 2 receptions, 18 receiving yards @ Duke

Nick Holley, Kent State, 50%

  • 58 rush yards, 3 receptions, 13 receiving yards @ Minnesota

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 48.9%

  • 228 rush yards, 3 rush TD, 1 reception, 9 rec. yards vs Auburn

Tyler Ervin, SJSU, 48.6%

  • 93 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 6 receptions, 30 rec. yards @ Oregon State

Joel Bouagnon, Northern Illinois, 45.3%

  • 78 rush yards, 3 receptions, 8 rec. yards @ Ohio State

On a team with national championship aspirations, but lead by a freshman quarterback, UCLA’s Paul Perkins is quietly putting together a fantastic season. If he can continue to take the load of Josh Rosen and the Bruins win the Pac-12 South (two BIG ifs) I would think Perkins would be a Heisman finalist. And he’s not just a one-hit wonder; he balled in 2014 too.

RB Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Offensive Yards

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 51.3%

Aaron Jones, UTEP, 51.0%

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 48.2%

Devontae Booker, Utah, 45.1%

Jahad Thomas, Temple, 44.6%

Kareem Hunt, Toledo, 41.7%

Devon Johnson, Marshall, 38.4%

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 38.0%

Brian Hill, Wyoming, 37.5%

Demario Richard, Arizona State, 37.5%

Maybe you’ve never heard of Ray Lawry (2017 eligible), but it’s time to start paying attention. The 5’11 200b sophomore is a one-man wrecking crew for the Monarchs… speaking of which, how about Leonard Fournette? In consecutive weeks he has torn apart SEC defenses and in the process seen his Heisman odds go from 13-1 on September 8 (eighth-best odds) to 3.5-1 this week, which makes him the Vegas favorite to win the award.

Receivers of the week

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 63.7% of team’s receiving yards

  • 8 receptions, 193 rec. yards, 2 rec. TD vs Rice

Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 63.2%

  • 8 receptions, 156 rec. yards, 3 rec. TD vs Air Force

DaeSean Hamilton, Penn State, 61.0%

  • 5 receptions, 86 rec. yards vs Rutgers

Trent Sherfield, Vanderbilt, 60.9%

  • 16 receptions, 240 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Austin Peay

Gerald Everett, South Alabama, 60.7%

  • 8 receptions, 164 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ SDSU

Roger Lewis, Bowling Green, 58.9%

  • 7 receptions, 261 rec. yards, 3 rec. TD vs Memphis

Tyler Boyd, Pitt, 57.7%

  • 10 receptions, 131 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD, 7 rush yards @ Iowa

DeAndre Bell, Army, 57.4%

  • 1 reception, 31 rec. yards vs Wake Forest

JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC, 56.3%

  • 8 receptions, 153 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Stanford

DeBrandon Sanders, Navy, 56.1%

  • 1 reception, 23 rec. yards, 1 rush, 20 rush yards vs East Carolina

Jordan Payton, UCLA, 55.7%

  • 4 receptions, 59 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs BYU

Even if Air Force isn’t exactly a defensive juggernaut, Aaron Burbridge’s performance shouldn’t be discounted. He’s strung together three consecutive 100+ yard games to start the season, is catching passes from Connor Cook and has the size to intrigue NFL types. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Cody Latimer-esque ascent over the next six months. Just something to monitor.

WR Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Receiving Yards

Jamir Tillman, Navy, 72.2%

Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh, 55.5%

Chris Godwin, Penn State, 55.1%

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 54.1%

Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 53.8%

Will Fuller, Notre Dame, 52.1%

Dameon Gamblin, New Mexico, 51.2%

Tanner Gentry, Wyoming, 49.1%

Devin Scott, Louisiana-Lafayette, 48.1%

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 47.4%

Should I exclude military school players from this list, since their likelihood of NFL relevance is so unlikely?… Tyler Boyd is the most noteworthy player here for several reasons. First, he’s putting together an awesome season as the obvious focal point of the offense and still nobody can stop him. Also, his birth year had been previously reported as 1993, but now the official Pitt website lists it as 1994. If it’s true that he’s a year younger than we originally thought – a 20 year old freshman in 2013 – his dynasty stock gets a significant boost on several fronts… And say what’s up to Will Fuller, who is smallish, but is tearing it up for the Irish.

Special Teams Studs of the week

Earlier this year at Rotoviz I detailed the hidden value of special teams stats in prospect analysis. Keeping with that theme, here’s a look at the top players making an impact in the return game.

Devin Fuller, UCLA, 194 return yards vs BYU

Ryan Switzer, UNC, 168 return yards, 1 ret. TD vs Illinois

Shon Cardon, South Carolina, 162 return yards @ Georgia

Johnny Holton, Cincinnati, 125 return yards @ Miami OH

DJ May, Wyoming, 122 return yards @ Washington State

Brandon Smith, Texas State, 122 return yards vs Southern Miss

Diontae Johnson, Toledo, 119 return yards vs Iowa State

Adoree’ Jackson, USC, 118 return yards vs Stanford

Solomon Vault, Northwestern, 118 return yards, 1 ret. TD @ Duke

Brett Winnegan, UTSA, 112 return yards   @ Oklahoma State

If there’s a Wes Welker-type prospect (undersized, premium special teamer) on this list it’s Ryan Switzer. In his debut campaign in 2013 he averaged more than 20 yards per punt return and is back on a similar path this year after being kept somewhat under wraps last year. Also, randomly, he’s thrown two passes in his career – indicating a high level of trust by the coaching staff – both of which went for touchdowns.

Special Teams Leaders – Seasonal Top 10

Janarion Grant, Rutgers, 129.3 return yards/g

Kylen Towner, WKU, 107.0

Autrey Golden, UTEP, 96.6

Christian Kirk, Texas A&M, 93.7

Brett Winnegan, UTSA, 93.0

De’Chavon “Gump” Hayes, Arizona State, 87.5

Jeremiah Bryson, MTSU, 84.3

Diontae Johnson, Toledo, 82.0

Devin Fuller, UCLA, 79.7

Eric Hawkins, Arkansas, 79.5

One player on this list who made a huge splash on opening weekend and who I’ve been meaning to write about is Texas A&M freshman Christian Kirk. He’s a solid 5’11 200lbs, doesn’t turn 19 until November and is already balling. In addition to his special teams contributions, he’s also contributing on offense. At this point, he’s probably the most valuable 2015 freshman devy prospect in the game.

QUESTIONS

  1. For wide receivers, I like “market share of receiving yards” since we’ve used those for a while and people generally understand the continuum, but what did you think about the QB and RB breakdowns being based on market share of offense? Is there something else you’d rather see?
  2. Should I keep service academy players out of this list since they almost never end up playing in the NFL and part of this exercise is to help in prospect identification?
  3. Would you like access to the data set that helped generate this article? If so, you could email me at THECFX at GMAIL dot COM, or I could just set up a link with a free download. Let me know.