The College Football Market Share Report – Season Recap

That’s all, folks! The 2015-16 College Football season is officially over. It’s almost time to turn our attention to draft season, but before we do here is one final Market Share Report.

For this edition I’ve made a few tweaks, including a section for best past-catching running backs. Also, for anyone who I know is entering the 2016 NFL Draft, I’ve put an asterisk by their name.

How you might want to interact with this article:
1) Skim the dense parts and read the summaries at the end of each section
2) Find rockstar performances and focus on those in your film-watching endeavors
3) Leave a comment because comments are fun

With this being the last article in this series, I ask that, if you enjoyed this publication throughout the season, you consider supporting my work via a paypal donation.

Quarterbacks of Bowl Season

Sean Maguire, Florida State, 92.7% of team’s offensive yards

  • 22-44, 392 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT vs Houston

Patrick Mahomes II, Texas Tech, 85.7%

  • 28-56, 370 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT vs LSU

Lamar Jackson, Louisville, 84.8%

  • 12-26, 227 yards, 2 TD, 226 rush yards, 2 rush TD vs Texas A&M

Tanner Mangum, BYU, 82.4%

  • 25-56, 315 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT, 1 rush TD vs Utah

*Mike Bercovici, Arizona State, 82.3%

  • 29-52, 418 yards, 4 TD, 10 rush yards vs WVU

*Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State, 82.3%

  • 14-29, 208 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT vs SJSU

Skyler Howard, West Virginia, 82.1%

  • 28-51, 532 yards, 5 TD, 2 INT, 23 rush yards vs ASU

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss, 81.9%

  • 25-38, 331 yards, 2 TD vs Washington

Thomas Woodson, Akron, 81.2%

  • 14-29, 168 yards, 1 INT, 47 rush yards, rec. TD vs Utah St

Josh Rosen, UCLA, 79.8%

  • 26-40, 319 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT vs Nebraska

ACC fans might want to take note of Louisville and QB Lamar Jackson. He posted massive dual-threat production in the bowl game and is just a sophomore next year. Bobby Petrino will be in his third season, which was a fruitful point during his first stay at Louisville and at Arkansas; he lost no more than three games in either of those “year threes”… it might be fun to go back and watch that ASU-WVU bowl game, considering it had two quarterbacks going absolutely bonkers in it.

 

Seasonal QB Leaders

Luke Falk, Washington State, 76.8% of team’s offensive yards

  • 6’4, 205lbs, Sophomore

*Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State, 75.9%

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 74.6%

  • 6’3, 227lbs, Junior

*Dak Prescott, Mississippi State, 73.2%

  • 6’2, 230lbs, Senior

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 71.8%

  • 6’0, 211lbs, Freshman

*Jeff Driskel, Louisiana Tech, 69.4%

  • 6’4, 231lbs, Senior

Riley Neal, Ball State, 68.7%

  • 6’5, 217lbs, Freshman

*Jared Goff, Cal, 68.6%

  • 6’2, 215lbs, Junior

Brent Stockstill, MTSU, 68%

  • 6’0, 200lbs, Freshman

Patrick Mahomes II, Texas Tech, 67.9%

  • 6’3, 219lbs, Sophomore

Alex McGough, FIU, 67.5%

  • 6’3, 218lbs, Sophomore

Deshaun Watson, Clemson, 67.5%

  • 6’2, 210lbs, Sophomore

Chad Kelly, Ole Miss, 67.5%

  • 6’2, 215lbs, Junior

It’s fun to see Jared Goff end the year with a bang and climb so high up this list. An early declaration, he’s almost certain to go in the first round. Just for fun, I thought I’d check on how first-round quarterbacks from the last two years fared in terms of final-seasons market share of offense:

  • Winston – 67.8%
  • Mariota – 64.0%
  • Bortles – 67.1%
  • Manziel – 69.6%
  • Bridgewater – 67.6%

The average is 67.2%, which is slightly below Goff’s mark (68.9%), and he did himself no favors with his rushing ability… As later-round prospects, it will be fun to see where Dak Prescott and Jeff Driskel end up going… Say hello to Deshaun Watson, Chad Kelly and Patrick Mahomes, who should be among college football’s most exciting quarterbacks in 2016.

 

Running Backs of Bowl Season

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 64.6%

  • 18 carries, 172 yards, 105 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD, 91 ret. yards, 1 ret. TD vs Iowa

Joe Williams, Utah, 57.4%

  • 25 carries, 91 yards, 2 TD, 22 rec. yards vs BYU

James Butler, Nevada, 54.8%

  • 24 carries, 189 yards, 2 TD vs Colorado St

Romello Ross, Central Michigan, 51.4%

  • 19 carries, 100 yards, 1 TD, 28 rec. yards vs Minnesota

Joel Bouagnon, Northern Illinois, 48.5%

  • 8 carries, 16 yards vs Boise

*Tyler Ervin, SJSU, 45.1%

  • 30 carries, 132 yards, 98 return yards vs Georgia State

Johnny Jefferson, Baylor, 42.7%

  • 23 carries, 299 yards, 3 TD, 24 pass yards vs UNC

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 40.1%

  • 29 carries, 212 yards, 4 TD, 44 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Texas Tech

Donnel Pumphrey, SDSU, 39.9%

  • 25 carries, 99 yards, 1 TD, 19 rec. yards, 16 pass yards vs Cincinnati

Marcus Cox, Appalachian State, 37.9%

  • 24 carries, 162 yards, 1 TD vs Ohio

Bowl season and pretty much everything else for the last two months (except the Heisman) has belonged to Christian McCaffrey. If there’s a single bowl season performance worth going back to re-watch, it’s him in the Rose Bowl. I know this is going to sound absurd, and there will almost certainly be “white running back” stereotypes to overcome, but I think he’s a borderline Reggie Bush caliber prospect… Johnny Jefferson might be the only player in McCaffrey’s tier of bowl-studliness. When looking at his bowl game and last regular season game, he rushed for 457 yards on 46 carries. Bye bye, Shock Linwood. Heeeeeeereeee’s Johnny!… Keep an eye on Marcus Cox next year for App State. That program is on the rise and he’s their best offensive player.

 

Seasonal RB Leaders

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 44.3% of team’s offensive yards

  • 6’0, 201lbs, Sophomore

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 42%

  • 6’1, 230lbs, Sophomore

*Devontae Booker, Utah, 41.2%

  • 6’1, 212lbs, Senior

Brian Hill, Wyoming, 40.7%

  • 6’1, 211lbs, Sophomore

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 39.7%

  • 5’9, 180lbs, Junior

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 39.2%

  • 5’11, 202lbs, Sophomore

Larry Rose III, New Mexico State, 37.2%

  • 5’11, 184lbs, Sophomore

Justin Jackson, Northwestern, 37.2%

  • 5’11, 190lbs, Sophomore

*Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 36.8%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Senior

*Derrick Henry, Alabama, 36.1%

  • 6’3, 242lbs, Junior

*Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State, 35.9%

  • 6’0, 225lbs, Junior

What a remarkable year for college running backs. Not sure how else to say it. And even though  Zeke, Derrick and Devontae are off to the NFL, next year will be loaded to with many of the names on this list returning and a few others like Royce Freeman, Marlon Mack, Saquon Barkley and more to sprinkle in… And for the record, I’m still not over the fact that Derrick Henry won the Heisman, depsite accounting for roughly eight percent less of his offense than McCaffrey did on similarly outstanding teams.

 

Seasonal RB Leaders – Pass Catching

Taquan Mizzell, Virginia, 25.2% of team’s receiving yards

  • 5’10, 195lb, Junior

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 21.8%

  • 6’0, 201lbs, Sophomore

*Jalin Marshall, Ohio State, 21.3%

  • 5’11, 205lbs, RS-Sophomore

Ervin Phillips, Syracuse, 21.3%

  • 5’11, 181lbs, Sophomore

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 20.9%

  • 5’9, 180lbs, Junior

Arkeel Newsome, Connecticut, 19.3%

  • 5’7, 182lbs, Sophomore

Clinton Lynch, Georgia Tech, 18.7%

  • 6’0, 181lbs, Freshman

*Dwayne Washington, Washington, 17.5%

  • 6’2, 226lbs, Junior

Papi White, Ohio, 17.5%

  • 5’9, 166lbs, Freshman

Raekwon James, Kent State, 17.3%

  • 5’9, 187lbs, Freshman

Ben Lewis, Syracuse, 16.5%

  • 6’2, 213lbs, Junior

*Devontae Booker, Utah, 15.5%

  • 5’11, 212lbs, Senior

This is a new category and I’m not entirely sure how relevant it is, but I thought it was interesting. Two of the more head-scratching NFL Draft early entries – Marshall and Washington – show up on this list, which could help explain their entries despite their substandard rushing production… On the other hand, Devontae Booker is a badass on all fronts… And shoutout to Donnel Pumphrey, who appears on both the overall running back leaderboard and the pass-catching back leaderboard. He’s so tiny, but so talented.

Service academy footnotes: Timothy McVey (Air Force, 22.2%), John Trainor (Army, 20.1%), DeBrandon Sanders (Navy, 19.5%)

 

Wide Receivers of Bowl Season

*Malcolm Mitchell, Georgia, 70.8% of team’s receiving yards

  • 5 rec., 114 yards, 1 TD vs Penn State

Isaiah Ford, Virginia Tech, 66%

  • 12 rec., 227 yards, 1 TD, 23 rush yards vs Tulsa

Josh Reynolds, Texas A&M, 57.7%

  • 11 rec., 177 yards vs Louisville

Jerico Richardson, Nevada, 56.8%

  • 4 rec,. 42 yards vs Colorado St

*Cayleb Jones, Arizona, 55.3%

  • 4 rec., 182 yards, 1 TD vs New Mexico

Corey Davis, Western Michigan, 55.3%

  • 8 rec., 183 yards, 1 TD vs MTSU

Justin Holmes, SJSU, 53.9%

  • 3 rec., 48 yards vs Georgia State

*Mike Thomas, Southern Miss, 53.8%

  • 9 rec., 190 yards, 2 TD, 34 ret. yards vs Washington

Andrew Pratt, Akron, 51.6%

  • 9 rec., 94 yards vs Utah State

Travis Rudolph, Florida State, 50.6%

  • 7 rec., 201 yards, 1 TD vs Houston

Good on Malcolm Mitchell to finish an adventurous career with an epic performance in his bowl game. I’m not that high on him as a prospect (for now), but going over 100 yards and 70% of his team’s passing offense is ridiculous… DEVY OWNERS – keep an eye on Isaiah Ford. He’s just 19 years old, went nuts in his bowl game and accounted for nearly 40% of his team’s receiving yards on the year. That is ELITE… Finally, be aware of Mike Thomas from Southern Miss. Not to be confused with Mike Thomas from Ohio State or a million other Mike Thomases. This kid can play and is almost certainly a top 10 receiver in this draft for me. Much more to come on him.

 

Seasonal WR Leaders

*Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 47.2% of team’s receiving yards

  • 5’10, 175lbs, Senior

*Leonte Carroo, Rutgers, 43.6% of receiving yards

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Tanner Gentry, Wyoming, 43.6%

  • 6’2, 201lbs, Junior

*Tajae Sharpe, UMass, 42.7%

  • 6’3, 188lbs, Senior

BJ Johnson, Georgia Southern, 41.8%

  • 6’1, 212lbs, Junior

Isaiah Ford, Virginia Tech, 39.6%

  • 6’2, 188lbs, Sophomore

Chris Godwin, Penn State, 39.5%

  • 6’1, 208lbs, Sophomore

*Tyler Boyd, Pitt, 39.5%

  • 6’2, 200lbs, Junior

*Pharoh Cooper, South Carolina, 39.1%

  • 5’11, 207lbs, Junior

Kenny Golladay, Northern Illinois, 38.7%

  • 6’4, 200lbs, Junior

JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC, 38.5%

  • 6’2, 215lbs, Sophomore

Corey Davis (my love), Western Michigan, 38.4%

  • 6’3, 205lbs, Junior

*Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 38.4%

  • 6’1, 208lbs, Senior

Exciting to see that this leaderboard is peppered with players who will be in the 2016 NFL Draft. I’ve already written about a number of them at RotoViz and plan to hit more in the coming weeks:

Looking ahead to 2016, Ford, Godwin, Juju and Corey Davis are among the top returning receiver prospects… About Dezmon Epps, he only played six games this year, and he’s miniature, but he was really good in those games, so I cheated a bit on my games played requirement and included him for draft awareness purposes.

Service Academy footnotes: Jamir Tillman (51.3%, Navy), Edgar Poe (44.6%, Army)

Jerome Lane footnotes: 32% of Akron’s yards

 

Tight Ends of Bowl Season

Cole Hikutini, Louisville, 45.4% of team’s receiving yards

  • 3 rec., 103 yards vs NC State

O.J. Howard, Alabama, 45% (2 games)

  • 8 rec., 267 yards, 2 TD vs Michigan St, Clemson

Pharoah McKever, NC State, 38.3%

  • 1 rec., 82 yards, 1 TD vs Mississippi State

Alex Ellis, Tennessee, 38.1%

  • 3 rec., 74 yards vs Northwestern

Ari Werts, Georgia State, 30.3%

  • 3 rec., 63 yards vs SJSU

*Hunter Henry, Arkansas, 29.2%

  • 5 rec., 92 yards vs Kansas State

*Ben McCord, Central Michigan, 29%

  • 2 rec., 42 yards vs Minnesota

Alec Bloom, UConn, 27.9%

  • 2 rec., 24 yards vs Marshall

Evan Engram, Ole Miss, 27.7%

  • 6 rec., 96 yards vs Oklahoma State

Barrett Burns, Appalachian St, 25.8%

  • 3 rec., 32 yards, 2 TD vs Ohio

After years of hearing about O.J. Howard and not seeing any production, it was exciting to see him blow up in the National Championship game. Paging Lane Kiffin, please use him more next year… Hunter Henry is a name you need to know, if you don’t already. Probably my top TE prospect for the 2016 Draft.

 

Seasonal TE Leaders

*David Morgan II, UTSA, 24.4% of team’s receiving yards

  • 6’4, 260lbs, Senior

Gerald Everett, South Alabama, 24%

  • 6’4, 225lbs, Junior

*Rodney Mills, UMass, 21.9%

  • 6’1, 205lbs, Senior

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 21.8%

  • 5’11, 236lbs, Sophomore

O.J. Howard, Alabama, 21.2%

  • 6’6, 242lbs, Junior

*Dan Vitale, Northwestern, 21.2%

  • 6’2, 235lbs, Senior

*Hunter Henry, Arkansas, 21.2%

  • 6’5, 253lbs, Junior

Jake Butt, Michigan, 21.2%

  • 6’6, 248lbs, Junior

Billy Freeman, SJSU, 21.2%

  • 6’3, 232lbs, Junior

*Matt Weiser, Buffalo, 20.9%

  • 6’5, 255lbs, Senior

Cam Serigne, Wake Forest, 20.5%

  • 6’3, 245lbs, R-Sophomore

Brandon Lingen, Minnesota, 20.2%

  • 6’5, 247lbs, Sophomore

The 2016 TE class looks like it’s going to take a hit by not having Serigne, Hodges, Butt and Engram not declare, but I’m intrigued by what David Morgan II and, to a lesser extent, Matt Weiser might have to offer.

 

Seasonal Special Teams Leaders

Janarion Grant, Rutgers, WR, 91.3% of team’s return yards

  • 5’11, 170lbs, Junior

Brisly Estime, Syracuse, WR, 89.6%

  • 5’9, 178lbs, Junior

*Derek Keaton, Georgia Southern, WR, 89.6%

  • 5’11, 185lbs, Senior

Kylen Towner, Western Kentucky, WR, 89.4%

  • 5’8, 175lbs, Sophomore

*Teddy Ruben, Troy, WR, 87.3%

  • 5’7, 161lbs, Senior

KaVontae Turpin, TCU, WR, 86.7%

  • 5’9, 152lbs, Freshman

*Deandre Reaves, Marshall, WR, 86.2%

  • 5’10, 179lbs, Senior

*Tyler Ervin, SJSU, RB, 85.2%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Senior

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, RB, 84.6%

  • 6’0, 201lbs, Sophomore

*Jakeem Grant, Texas Tech, WR, 83.6%

  • 5’7, 168lbs, Senior

I’ve written in the past about how special teams contributions are a key to finding hidden value, and I’m curious about how Jakeem Grant will fare in the coming months. He’s pretty dynamic and looked great against LSU in his bowl game.

And, yes, I’m aware that I used the same Christian McCaffrey photo on this article and the last in-season one, but he’s earned it.

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College Football DFS Diary – September 5 2015

Guy)  What the hell are you doing?

Fletcher)  Iiimmm kicking my asssss! Do you mind?

Fresh off the ass-kicking I took with my September 3 college football DFS plays, I am back at it again for the Saturday slate. In case you missed it, I went 0-fer, which means you did not miss much.

That said, Thursdays mini-debacle made me realize how thorough I need to be if I am going to make all my plays public, so todays effort was much greater, which will hopefully lead to better results.

(Disclaimer – this Spanish language keyboard I am using does not have, or I cannot figure out how to produce, an apostrophe or a colon… so thanks in advance for not judging my punctuation errors.)

Revisiting the purpose of this college football DFS diary, I am documenting all of my plays for both college and NFL – and the thought processes that went into every lineup – so that I can track my record as I go, have more skin in the game, and hopefully help everyone involved learn more about how to succeed in DFS.

Based on the bankroll rules I set for myself in the initial post of this series my week one budget is $10 and will be split between the various formats as follows…

Tournaments – $1 (thank goodness for quarter tourneys)

Multipliers – $2

50-50s – $7

All of these contests are being played at DraftKings, which has become my preferred platform in recent years. If you want to support my work and get a sign-up bonus, join DraftKings through this link.

None of this should be construed as advice for how to build your DFS teams.

Tournaments

Today´s Allocation of Weekly Budget – $0.75 ($0.25 spent on Thursday)

Self reminder – the name of the game in tournament play is volatility. Go big or go home.

LINEUP 1

QB

Of the nine relevant teams who are expected to surpass 40 points, only three of them have a points-share under 80%. What I mean by point-share is, how much of the game total is the favored-team expected to score. For instance, Missouri is expected to score 48 of the 54 points (89%) in their contest against SE Missouri, which I interpret to mean that the game is going to be ugly and Maty Mauk wont play a full game… not what I want for my DFS lineup. Many of the projected top-scoring teams are in this same situation. The three that arent are

Washington State – 72% point-share (Luke Falk)

Tennessee – 65% share (Josh Dobbs)

Texas Tech – 62% (presumably Patrick Mahomes, but we are not 100% clear)

To be clear, I am experimenting with this point share concept. I dont have concrete evidence on it yet, but that is the whole point of this exercise – to try things, learn from them and improve.

To start off the lineup, I am selecting Josh Dobbs ($9600) because I buy into the expectation that his team will score plenty, but the game will be relatively competitive, meaning he will play the whole way.

Between Falk and Mahomes (presumably) I am a little worried about the weather outlook for Wazzus game, which calls for 40% chance of rain. I also do not like that Falk ($9600) is $1200 more expensive, which would create budget constraints very quickly. I am going to put Mahomes ($8400) into my lineup and see how far I can get. If things do not fit together, or if Mahomes does not start, my fallback option is Dane Evans ($6700) from Tulsa, who is a veteran QB with two intriguing weapons starting his first game in a new, Baylor-like pass-heavy system.

WR

Looking for volatility, I am going to try to pair my quarterbacks with one of their wide receivers with the hopes that a single play could net my DFS team two touchdowns.

For Tennessee, I see that their top receiver from last year has been suspended for this opening game and that their fourth-most targeted receiver from last year is out with an injury. Digging a little deeper, I see that two of the starters listed for this game, Josh Malone (sophomore 5-star recruit who was the third-most targeted receiver last year) and Jauan Jennings (freshman dual-threat QB recruit who switched to WR in the spring to get more playing time and won the slot job over a senior) are priced at the minimum salary of $3000. Because I will make multiple tournament lineups, I will try Malone first and Jennings later. I also probably have the option of putting them both in a lineup if I really want to bet on the Vols having a big game.

Looking to Texas Tech, they return their most-targeted option from 2014, Jakeem Grant ($7900), who saw 20.7% of the team targets while operating from his H position. Meanwhile, the second-most targeted position from last year (19.2%), the Y, has a new starter in the form of Ian Sadler ($4700). After these two interior receiver positions, the next-most targeted receivers saw 10% fewer targets last year. Considering the $3200 price differential, I am going to select Sadler as my stack with Mahomes.

RB

Switching gears to the running game, I want to find the intersection of good OLine, high point total and reasonable price. Since I am constantly glued to my Phil Steele magazine, I check out his unit rankings to see which of the best OLs are at my disposal today. All of these are among his top 25 units… Georgia, Arkansas, Stanford, UCLA, Auburn, Texas Tech, Mississippi, Indiana, Missouri, Bolwing Green. Obviously it would be great to get Nick Chubb (Georgia) or Alex Collins (Arkansas) but their $9000+ price tags would mean my final four roster spots would have to be acquired with less than $3800 per pick.

Meanwhile, Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey can be had for half their price and steps into a great situation after being a meaningful, multi-faceted contributor last year. Mix in the fact that Northwestern is starting a freshman QB and I can envision the Cardinal possessing the ball extensively and feeding McCaffrey. I am taking McCaffrey ($4800).

I have $19,500 for one RB, one WR and two flex. One player who I want to kick the tires on is Indiana RB Jordan Howard. He is one of my top devy runners and is making his debut for IU after transfering from UAB. IU is expected to score about 36 points with about 63% point-share, meaning the game should be reasonably close, but IU should be playing from ahead. I can envision Howard having a breakout game. I am buying for $7500.

Just kidding… that is going to make it tough for me to fill out my roster at $4000 per pop over the final three positions. Throwing Howard back and will look in the $5500 or less range.

Sony Michel, maybe as a hedge on Nick Chubb getting pulled early?

One game that has kind of a sneaky-high point total, with a clear lead-runner and some quarterback tumult is Maryland – Richmond. Also, it has a 30% chance of rain. Brandon Ross can be had for $4200 with the expectation that he will be Marylands top offensive threat on a day where they are expected to score 39. Lets try this.

For my last receiver spot, I am going back to the Tulsa – FAU game I mentioned earlier, which has a 67 point total and, for Tulsa, a team total of 36. Remember, if Mahomes does not start I am using Dane Evans from Tulsa, so using a Tulsa receiver here essentially would guarantee me that I have a stack regardless of which QB plays… and no matter what I like Ian Sadler in my lineup. Keevan Lucas ($7800) would be a bonus, but he is too expensive. Im going to roll with the oversized, and finally healthy, Keyarris Garrett instead for $5200.

Down to my flex spots and $10,100 remaining, I want to try to find the best upside I can. I remember Jon Bales saying once that everyone in your tournament lineup should have a reasonable chance of scoring two touchdowns in that game. Thats the mindset I must use for these last spots.

One guy who I think fits that bill is Jon Hilliman from Boston College. The Eagles are breaking in a new QB and and 4 new offensive lineman, but the team total is 37? Not sure how that works, but I am pretty sure it implies a big day for Hilliman. I will take the bait for $6900.

$3200 left and I know I have Jauan Jennings there at $3000 if I need him. Scrolling frantically through the bottom of the barrell to see if any starters have been misvalued…

AHA! This could be worth a dice roll. Greg Howell from FAU is the newly minted 1A starter. Maybe he doesnt get every carry, but the majority could be good enough. According to Phil Steele, Tulsa has one of the worst defensive lines and defenses in the AAC. FAU has the 6th best OL in CUSA. Its not pretty, but maybe? With a team total set for 31, I will take the touches and hope for the best.

rsz_cfx_tourney_1

Wow, that got carried away… I will keep these much shorter moving forward

LINEUP 2

Next lineup is going to be close to this one, but with a few tweaks.

Right off the bat, Josh Dobbs is going in again, but this time paired with Jauan Jennings. Realizing the limits of the Tulsa defense, I want to give FAU QB Jaquez Johnson ($6200) a try given his dual threat ability and past performance. As far as I can tell, his most trusted remaining receiver with the loss of Lucky Whitehead is Jenson Stoshak ($4400), so that will be my stack there.

I mentioned before that I wanted to get Indiana RB Jordan Howard in a lineup ($7500) which I prioritized here due to the scores he has received in my prospect evaluation system, his quality offensive line, and the high team total. Same as last time, RB Christian McCaffrey is getting the call here, as is TTU WR Ian Sadler. That gets us to the Flex spots wih $9800 left. Because I feel good about the decisions made with the last lineup, I am sticking with Brandon Ross from Maryland. With $5100 remaining, I decided that the upside of Sony Michel was the best value at that point with the notion that he will get some touches while Chubb is in the game and then all of the touches for a period in the early second half. Even though he is a backup, a line of 100+ yards and two touchdowns would not surprise me.

rsz_cfx_tourney_2

LINEUP 3

No Josh Dobbs at QB this time, however Dane Evans gets proactively played here, instead of the backup treatment he got in tournament lineup 1. He gets stacked with top target Keevan Lucas. For my second QB, with the goal of creating variance, I went with unknown CJ Beathard who has the Iowa starting job and strong team total to support a nice debut for him. For better or worse, it was one of the Vegas lines that stood out like, what do they know that I dont, and I decided to ride their coattails. He gets stacked with Iowas most proven receiving commodity, Tevaun Smith. Maybe I am getting lazy here, but McCaffrey and Ross just create so much flexibility due to their low price and their strong likelihood of a high touch count. I am sure I will curse this decision on Monday. Oh well.

As a sort of hedge against not having any of the Tennessee passing offense, I really wanted to get Jalen Hurd, their lead RB, so he went in the Flex. Down to $8700, I went looking for a cheap boom-bust pass catcher and found the phenom Hunter Henry. He is Arkansas second favorite target and their best touchdown threat. Would it be surprising if UTEP hung around long enough to activate the Arkansas pass game? Finally, knowing I had a few cheap options in my back pocket, I went looking for a cheap RB. Algernon Brown from BYU fit the bill as the replacement for Jamaal Williams. Taysom Hill should draw a ton of attention and, in expected windy conditions, I could see Brown receiving a large number of carries.

rsz_cfx_tourney_3

Multipliers

Today´s Allocation of Weekly Budget – $1 ($1 spent on Thursday)

Feeling like I have a good sense of floor and upside, I want to fill this roster with high-floor high-upside players.

QB
Maybe I am falling into a trap here, but so many factors point toward a good outing for Dane Evans, so I am locking him in with his main guy Keevan Lucas. Mixing things up, I am rolling out Auburn QB Jeremy Johnson. Although the Auburn team total isnt spectacular at 34, playing Johnson is kind of a hedge against all the uncertainty of the offense, with the Duke Williams playing time issue and the unknown running back split. No stack for JJ.

RB
Back at it with Hilliman and McCaffrey at RB. Also, you will see that my flex plays were both running backs I have used before. (Maybe I get too fixated on certain games and players and dont diversify enough?)

WR
One game I havent touched yet, but features a 36 point team total is UCLA – Virginia. Even though we dont know who UCLAs passer will be, his top target will certainly be Jordan Payton. Finally, I circle back on Tennessee WR Jauan Jennings, who I feel might have a slightly higher floor than his bargain brother Josh Malone. Jennings it is.
cfx multiplier

50-50s

Today´s Allocation of Weekly Budget – $4 ($3 spent on Saturday)
Alright, I am out of gas on the writeups. Here are the 50-50 lineups I am using.

5050 cfx 1

5050 cfx 2

5050 cfx 3

5050 cfx 4

Total Shares of Players (8 possible lineups)

QB

Josh Dobbs – 4

Patrick Mahomes – 2

C.J. Beathard – 2

Dane Evans – 2

Jeremy Johnson – 2

Kevin Hogan – 1

Matt Johnson – 1

Tommy Armstrong – 1

Jaquez Johnson – 1 (I thought I played him more than this. Guess I just hated the stack options)

RB

Brandon Ross – 8  (oh shit! got carried away – or lazy – with this)

Christian McCaffrey – 5

Jon Hilliman – 4

Greg Howell – 3

Jordan Howard – 3

Jalen Hurd – 3

Algernon Brown – 2

Wayne Gallman – 1

Jaylen Walton – 1

Sony Michel – 1

WR

Ian Sadler – 5

Jauan Jennings – 3

Josh Malone – 2

Keyarris Garrett – 2

Keevan Lucas – 2

Hunter Henry – 2

Roger Lewis – 2

Jordan Westerkamp – 2

Jenson Stoshak – 1

Tevaun Smith – 1

Jordan Payton – 1

DaeSean Hamilton – 1

Dan Vitale – 1

In doing this count and looking back through my rosters, I realized that I have a reliance on RBs in the flex position. Not sure if that is good or bad, just a thing to monitor.

Alright, so now here is the fun part… you get to tell me where you agree or disagree with my thought process, player selection, etc., so go ahead and leave a comment.


Jon Moore is a contributor at RotoViz and a cohost of Rotoviz Radio – A Fantasy Football Podcast.  Continue this conversation with him on TwitterGoogle+ or Facebook.