The College Football Market Share Report – Week 4 Recap

Welcome to the College Football Market Share Report, where each week I’ll be running through the players who are shouldering an exceptional percentage of their team’s offense AND defense. Yes, this week I’ve added three defensive metrics to the conversation. I also, separated out the Tight End group, so we can start monitoring them.

In the past, my prospect analysis has typically waited until after the season to get going, but by tracking these stats on a weekly basis in season we can more easily identify exceptional talents before everyone else does.

Note that the commentary below will highlight the most recent week’s top performers as well as seasonal leaders. Also, since this is somewhat of an experimental article, I’m going to ask for your feedback on how this should evolve moving forward, so feel free to leave a comment.

Be warned that this article is dense with numbers. I’d recommend skimming through the names and then checking out the blurbs at the bottom of each section.

**Finally, if you are introduced to any new players through this article, and you end up writing about them, please link back to this work. Thanks!**

Quarterbacks of the week

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss, 92.1% of offensive yards

447 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, -25 rush yards @ Nebraska

Ryan Metz, UTEP, 90.2%

275 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 46 rush yards vs Incarnate Word

Cameron Coffman, Wyoming, 87.7%

366 pass yards, 4 TD, 2 INT, -8 rush yards vs New Mexico

Alex McGough, FIU, 87.7%

263 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 7 rush yards @ Louisiana Tech

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State, 87.1%

270 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 14 rush yards @ Auburn

Kyle Allen, Texas A&M, 85.8%

358 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 5 rush yards @ Arkansas

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 85.3%

402 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 58 rush yards @ Purdue

David Blough, Purdue, 84.5%

340 pass yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 11 rush yards, 1 rush TD vs BG

Cody Kessler, USC, 83.7%

375 pass yards, 5 TD, 1 INT, 6 rush yards @ Arizona State

Brenden Motley, Virginia Tech, 83.4%

281 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 85 rush yards, 1 rush TD @ ECU

For as much buzz as Dak Prescott got last year, it feels like he’s under-appreciated this year, despite posting nearly as impressive numbers through four games… Let’s just appreciate BG’s Matt Johnson for a moment; he’s thrown for 400 yards in each game this season, including three road contests against Power-5 foes (@Tennessee, @Maryland, @Purdue). He won two of those games.

QB Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Offensive Yards

Luke Falk, Washington State, 80.5%

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 79.3%

Brandon Doughty, WKU, 78.0%

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 77.0%

Cameron Coffman, Wyoming, 76.7%

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 76.5%

Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut, 75.2%

Matt Lineham, Idaho, 73.9%

Matt Davis, SMU, 73.3%

Johnny McCrary, Vanderbilt, 72.9%

Last week I got a question about “what’s a good market share for quarterbacks?” To be honest, at this point, the metric is more descriptive than predictive, but that doesn’t make it any less interesting in my opinion. Here are how recent Heisman-winning quarterbacks faired in this metric in their trophy-claiming campaign.

Robert Griffin III (2011) – 65.4%

Johnny Manziel (2012) – 70.5%

Jameis Winston (2013) – 58.8%

Marcus Mariota (2014) – 63.7%

Obviously none of the players included in this week’s leaderboard is in the Heisman conversation (or on a team good enough to get them the national spotlight) but it’s something to keep an eye on. For what it’s worth, TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin is at 65.2% so far.

Running backs of the week

Kalif Phillips, Charlotte, 80.1% of team’s offensive yards

165 rush yards vs Florida Atlantic

Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 63.5%

300 rush yards, 3 rush TD, 4 rec. 45 rec. yards vs Fresno State

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 59.1%

244 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 1 rec., 7 rec. yards @ Syracuse

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 50.0%

206 rush yards, 1 rec., 38 rec. yards, 59 ret. yards @ Oregon State

Dwayne Washington, Washington, 49.4%

109 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 3 rec., 19 rec. yards vs Cal

Tony Pittman, Marshall, 48.7%

129 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 1 rec., 6 rec. yards @ Kent State

James Butler, Nevada, 46.7%

177 rush yards, 1 rush TD @ Buffalo

Greg Howell, Florida Atlantic, 44.6%

56 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 1 rec., 19 rec. yards @ Charlotte

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 44.2%

56 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 4 rec., 51 rec. yards @ Penn State

Kenneth Dixon, Louisiana Tech, 40.7%

169 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 1 rec., 23 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs FIU

More on Leonard Fournette in a moment, but how about SJSU’s Tyler Ervin and SDSU’s Donnel Pumphrey? Both backs are making their second consecutive appearance on this list and have been prolific undersized workhorses… And shoutout to Christian McCaffrey for being the #4 workhorse RB of the week while also contributing 59 return yards in the Cardinal’s road victory over Oregon State.

RB Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Offensive Yards

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 51.9%

Aaron Jones, UTEP, 51.0%

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 45.7%

Jahad Thomas, Temple, 44.6%

Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 43.4%

Devontae Booker, Utah, 39.2%

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 38.1%

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 38.0%

Demario Richard, Arizona State, 35.6%

Jordan Howard, Indiana, 35.6%

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 35.6%

Leonard Fournette has accounted for 51.9% of LSU’s offense so far. By comparison, the last two running backs to win the Heisman accounted for the following: Reggie Bush ’05 (32.7%)  Mark Ingram ’09 (35.3%)… Keep an eye on Indiana RB Jordan Howard, who was a stud at UAB before transfering to the Hoosier program to take over the role vacated by Tevin Coleman. He takes on Ohio State this week in a game that very well might feature the two best draft-eligible RBs in America.

Receivers of the week

Jordan Williams, Ball State, 74.7% of team’s receiving yards

8 receptions, 133 rec. yards, 2 rec. TD @ Northwestern

BJ Johnson, Georgia Southern, 73.2%

4 receptions, 93 rec. yards @ Idaho

Daniel Braverman, Western Michigan, 72.8%

10 receptions, 123 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Ohio State

Drew Morgan, Arkansas, 68.9%

8 receptions, 155 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Texas A&M

DeAndre Ball, Army, 68.4%

2 receptions, 67 rec. yards @ Eastern Michigan

Ricky Jeune, Georgia Tech, 63.6%

4 receptions, 91 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Duke

Carlos Wiggins, New Mexico, 59.8%

1 reception, 64 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Wyoming

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 58.1%

8 receptions, 165 rec. yards, 2 rec. TD vs Georgia Southern

KeeSean Johnson, Fresno State, 56.6%

7 receptions, 90 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ SJSU

Quinton Pedroza, Hawaii, 55.8%

10 receptions, 134 rec. yards, 0 rec. TD @ WIsconsin

On a weekend when two of my absolute favorite WR prospects, (Tajae Sharpe and Corey Davis, both from the MAC) got their time in the national spotlight, it was Ball State’s Jordan Williams who had the show-stealing performance. He’s not quite Tajae or Corey, but he’s the biggest of the trio and has enjoyed a rock-solid career… Shoutout to Arkansas WR Drew Morgan who came through with a huge game in the absence of top target Keon Hatcher.

WR Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Receiving Yards

Jamir Tillman, Navy, 65.5%

Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh, 55.5%

Dameon Gamblin, New Mexico, 51.2%

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 50.7%

BJ Johnson, Georgia Southern, 50.4%

Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 48.3%

Jordan Villamin, Oregon State, 46.6%

Will Fuller, Notre Dame, 46.0%

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 45.7%

Bryan Holmes, Troy, 45.7%

Say hello to Oregon State WR Jordan Villamin, who is a new arrival on this leaderboard. The 6’5 230lb redshirt sophomore (20 years old) is starting to look a lot like a Mike Evans-ish prospect. If you can add him now in a devy league, I would. The kid’s stock is going to skyrocket as the country wakes up to him… And when I say “wake up”, I mean that literally; many of Oregon State’s games finish well after midnight on the east coast.

Tight Ends of the week

Matt Weiser, Buffalo, 38.8% of team’s receiving yards

10 receptions, 131 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Nevada

Ryan Yurachek, Marshall, 38.4%

4 receptions, 58 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Kent State

Joshua Perkins, Washington, 36.2%

5 receptions, 55 rec. yards vs Cal

Ethan Wolf, Tennessee, 33.3%

4 receptions, 55 rec. yards @ Florida

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 32.8%

5 receptions, 84 rec. yards, 2 rec. TD, 2 rushes, 28 rush yards @ South Alabama

Austin Hooper, Stanford, 30.7%

2 receptions, 50 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Oregon State

Steven Scheu, Vanderbilt, 29.4%

5 receptions, 57 rec. yards @ Ole Miss

Hayden Plinke, UTEP, 29.1%

4 receptions, 80 rec. yards vs Incarnate Word

Cam Serigne, Wake Forest, 27.3%

5 receptions, 72 rec. yards, 1 pass attempt vs Indiana

Bucky Hodges, Virginia Tech, 26.0%

5 receptions, 73 rec. yards @ ECU

Honestly, I don’t know very much about this crew except for Hodges and Serigne. The one name that stands out though is Matt Weiser. For one, college tight ends almost never catch 10 passes in a game unless their name is Jace Amaro or Dennis Pitta. Also, homie is 6’5 255lbs, so there’s some meat on those bones.

TE Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Receiving Yards

Gerald Everett, South Alabama, 31.1%

David Morgan II, UTSA, 26.2%

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 25.6%

Ben McCord, Central Michigan, 23.9%

Jake Butt, Michigan, 22.3%

Tyler Higbee, WKU, 22.2%

C.J. Conrad, Kentucky, 22.1%

Hayden Plinke, UTEP, 21.3%

Jerell Adams, South Carolina, 21.0%

Chris Loving, North Texas, 20.9%

If there’s an early front runner to be my top-rated TE for the 2016 draft, it’s Jake Butt. Under Harbaugh, Stanford churned out a series of solid NFL prospects and Harbaugh now appears to be working the same mojo on Michigan’s TE. Listed at 6’6 248lbs, Butt has a strong combination of production, size and pro-style experience…Jaylen Samuels interested me at first, but then I realized he’s only 5’11 and is more of an H-back.

Special Teams Studs of the week

Olamide Zaccheaus, RB, Virginia, 231 return yards vs Boise

J.D. McKissic, WR, Arkansas State, 211 @ Toledo

Brisly Estime, WR, Syracuse, 202 vs LSU

Byron Marshall, WR, Oregon, 178 vs Utah

DeAndre Reaves, WR, Marshall, 170 @ Kent State

Austin Waller, RB, Rice, 140 @ Baylor

Daje Johnson, WR, Texas, 137 vs Oklahoma State

Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State, 137 @ Penn State

Jae’Lon Oglesby, RB, Memphis, 132 vs Cincinnati

Aregeros Turner, WR, Northern Illinois, 117 @ BC

Earlier this year at Rotoviz I wrote about the hidden value of special teams stats for prospects, so I like to monitor these performances.

Special Teams Leaders – Seasonal Top 10

Janarion Grant, WR, Rutgers, 109 return yards/game, 3 return TD

Brisly Estime, WR, Syracuse, 109 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

J.D. McKissic, WR, Arkansas State, 102 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

Byron Marshall, WR, Oregon, 96 ret. yds/gm

Kylen Towner, WR, WKU, 90 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

Rashaad Penny, RB, SDSU, 90 ret. yds/gm, 2 ret. TD

Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M, 90 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

Brett Winnegan, RB, UTSA, 89 ret. yds/gm

Daje Johnson, WR, Texas, 89 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

Devin Fuller, WR, UCLA, 85 ret. yds/gm

If there’s one name here that I’m really high on (besides Christian Kirk) it is Oregon’s Byron Marshall, who I think could be a Randall Cobb-ish, multi-threat prospect.

Defensive Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Total Tackles

Kentrell Brothers, LB, Missouri, 18.8% of total team tackles

Blake Martinez, ILB, Stanford, 18.7%

Steve Longa, LB, Rutgers, 16.4%

Anthony Walker, LB, Northwestern, 16.1%

Elandon Roberts, ILB, Houston, 16.1%

Skai Moore, LB, South Carolina, 15.9%

Christian Tago, LB, San Jose State, 15.4%

Kavon Frazier, DB, Central Michigan, 15.3%

Jalen Reeves-Maybin, LB, Tennessee, 15.2%

Nick Vigil, LB, Utah State, 15.1%

If you’re looking for a reference point here, Luke Kuechly has the TWO best seasons in my IDP database for this metric going back to 2005. In his final season he tallied 22% and in his second-to-last season he accounted for 20.7%. Anything north of 17% should be held in very high regard… Kavon Frazier is the only defensive back on this list.

Defensive Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Tackles for Loss

Ben Goodman Jr., DE, Kansas, 56.3% of team’s tackles for loss

Darius Latham, DT, Indiana, 41.7%

Jerrian Roberts, DE, North Texas, 41.7%

Woody Baron, DT, Virginia Tech, 38.9%

Bernard Dawson, DE, Georgia Southern, 37.5%

Anthony Walker, LB, Northwestern, 33.3%

Jon Schobert, OLB, Wisconsin, 32.8%

Trevon Coley, DT, Florida Atlantic, 31.6%

Nick Gilbo, LB, Buffalo, 30.6%

Alvin Jones, LB, UTEP, 30.0%

Alonzo McGee, LB, Georgia State, 30.0%

Quinton Bradley, DE, Idaho, 30.0%

Dominique Tovell, LB, Louisiana-Lafayette, 30.0%

If you’re looking for a flag bearer here, look at Aaron Donald, who accounted for 33.1% of Pitt’s tackles for loss in his final season. Anything above 25% is quite good, which all of these guys are now, but expect them to come back to earth as the sample size grows… Note that Indiana’s Darius Latham has been suspended for this weekend’s game against Ohio State, which is a killer for that D… Also, Anthony Walker from Northwestern is the only player to appear on both the tackles and tackles-for-loss leaderboards.

Defensive Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Passes Broken Up

Latrell Gibbs, DB, Appalachian State, 75% of team’s PBU

Tyree Simmons, DB, Colorado State, 70%

Mike Stevens, CB, NC State, CB, 66.7%

Heath Harding, CB, Miami OH, 66.7%

D.J. May, LB, Wyoming, 60%

Nick Nelson, DB, Hawaii, 57.1%

Jalen Davis, CB, Utah State, 50%

Anthony Makransky, DB, Wyoming, 50%

Jeremiah Harris, DL, Eastern Michigan, 50%

Brian Peavy, DB, Iowa State, 50%

Avonte Maddox, DB, Pittsburgh, 50%

Kevin Vaccaro, S, Texas, 50%

Lance Austin, DB, Georgia Tech, 50%

Anything above 35% is really strong. Again, expect regression here. Oh, and say hi to another Texas Vaccaro.

Questions

  1. Did you like seeing the defensive metrics, or are those overkill?
  2. I heard some feedback that the old layout was tough to read. Is this new wordpress theme better?
  3. Would you like access to the data set that helped generate this article? If so, you could email me at THECFX at GMAIL dot COM, or I could just set up a link with a free download. Let me know.
Advertisements

Was Jameis Winston’s 2013 Heisman Season the Best…Ever?

Image via Zennie62/Flickr
Image via Zennie62/Flickr

In a few hours Florida State QB Jameis Winston will be crowned the winner of the 2013 Heisman trophy, becoming just the second freshman (Case Keenum Johnny Manziel being the other) to earn that distinction.  While it is difficult to argue that anyone else has been more impressive in 2013, I am curious about how Winston stacks up to other 19 year old college QBs.  As you read in Tyler Wilson and the curse of the old QB, age DOES matter when evaluating college prospects, so let’s take a look at the greatest 19 year old quarterback seasons in my database.

jameis-winston

NOTE: These numbers are based on games played against bowl-eligible opponents.  Click here to read more about this methodology.

QB Year Age College Conf. % Multi-TD pass games Comp % TD:INT AY/A
Winston, Jameis 2013 19 Florida St ACC 86% 72.3% 3.7 13.0
Hundley, Brett 2012 19 UCLA PAC12 56% 65.4% 4.8 8.6
Moore, Kellen 2008 19 Boise St WAC 86% 68.0% 2.3 8.5
Mariota, Marcus 2012 19 Oregon Pac12 56% 66.2% 6.3 8.5
Kolb, Kevin 2003 19 Houston CUSA 57% 56.9% 3.3 8.3
Smith, Alex 2003 19 Utah MWC 33% 63.9% 3.5 7.8
Keeton, Chuckie 2012 19 Utah St WAC 67% 63.2% 9.0 7.7
Leak, Chris 2004 19 Florida SEC 67% 55.6% 2.5 7.3
Stafford, Matt 2007 19 Georgia SEC 63% 56.7% 1.6 7.3
Golson, Everett 2012 19 Notre Dame IND 10% 57.2% 1.4 6.7
Henne, Chad 2004 19 Michigan Big Ten 63% 59.6% 2.1 6.4

Hands down, no debating, Winston’s 2013 season was the best 19 year old QB season ever.  His Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A) was 51% better than the second best player and it’s not like this list is a bunch of nobodies.  Kolb, Smith, Stafford, and Henne were round 1-2 selections.  Marcus Mariota and Brett Hundley will likely continue that trend when they declare.  Impressive stuff.

Understanding that Winston is a young phenom, let’s see how he stacks up to the best passers in ACC (recent) history.

QB Year Age College Conf. % multi-TD pass games Comp % TD:INT AY/A
Winston, Jameis 2013 19 Florida St ACC 86% 72.3% 3.7 13.0
Rivers, Philip 2003 22 NC State ACC 78% 69.4% 6.3 9.5
Hamilton, Joe 1999 22 Georgia Tech ACC 71% 65.3% 2.0 9.0
Druckenmiller, Jim 1996 24 Virginia Tech ACC 67% 57.5% 3.7 8.9
Harris, Jacory 2011 21 Miami (FL) ACC 71% 63.0% 2.8 8.8
Taylor, Tyrod 2010 21 Virginia Tech ACC 56% 57.4% 3.8 8.8
Boyd, Tajh 2013 23 Clemson ACC 43% 65.5% 1.9 8.7
Yates, TJ 2008 21 UNC ACC 50% 57.5% 3.0 8.7
Vick, Michael 2000 20 Virginia Tech ACC 25% 55.5% 1.8 8.7
Weinke, Chris 2000 28 Florida St ACC 70% 57.3% 2.0 8.6
Ponder, Christian 2009 21 Florida St ACC 57% 70.2% 2.6 8.4
Wilson, Russell 2009 21 NC State ACC 57% 57.8% 3.4 8.4

Again, Jameis Winston finds himself comfortably atop a list that includes four first round picks and a handful of other strong players.

Ok, I hear you saying “but his team is so dominant blah blah blah.”  Ok, fine.  Let’s compare Winston’s performance against quarterbacks from the most dominant teams of the BCS era…

QB Year Age College Conf. % Multi-TD pass games Comp % TD:INT AY/A
Winston, Jameis 2013 19 Florida St ACC 86% 72.3% 3.7 13.0
Tebow, Tim 2008 21 Florida SEC 82% 64.2% 7.7 10.4
Young, Vince 2005 22 Texas BIG12 88% 69.0% 3.0 10.1
Leinart, Matt 2004 21 USC Pac12 86% 61.6% 7.0 10.1

Let’s remember that Leinart won the Heisman and a national championship that year, VY should have won the Heisman and DID win a national championship.  Tebow was coming off a Heisman and also won the NC.  So, even if you’re trying to discount his performance because of his team, he clearly outperformed others in that same situation.

Thus far we’ve established that Winston’s 2013 was the best 19 year old season, the best ACC season, and the best season among QBs on dominant, title-contending teams.  To the final question: Was Jameis Winston’s 2013 Heisman Season the Best…Ever?  Here’s a look at the highest graded QB seasons in my database of more than 500+ college seasons.  Of the 11 other quarterbacks on this list, seven were first round picks and nine were drafted in the first three rounds.

QB Year Age College Conf. % Multi-TD pass games Comp % TD:INT AY/A
Winston, Jameis 2013 19 Florida St ACC 86% 72.3% 3.7 13.0
Petty, Bryce 2013 22 Baylor Big12 100% 59.2% 19.1 12.6
Griffin, Robert 2011 21 Baylor BIG12 67% 69.5% 5.0 11.5
McNown, Cade 1998 21 UCLA Pac12 71% 58.6% 2.7 10.8
Bradford, Sam 2008 21 Oklahoma Big12 100% 68.3% 4.9 10.6
Smith, Akili 1998 23 Oregon Pac12 67% 53.9% 3.3 10.5
Wilson, Russell 2011 23 Wisconsin Big Ten 89% 69.9% 5.0 10.5
Smith, Alex 2004 20 Utah MWC 80% 69.6% 7.0 10.3
Tebow, Tim 2009 22 Florida SEC 40% 68.5% 5.6 10.2
Moore, Kellen 2010 21 Boise St WAC 100% 68.7% 5.3 10.2
Kolb, Kevin 2006 22 Houston CUSA 71% 65.5% 15.0 10.1
Young, Vince 2005 22 Texas BIG12 88% 69.0% 3.0 10.1

While I am far from declaring Jameis Winston to be the greatest prospect or greatest college quarterback, I think it’s fair to say that his 2013 might have been the greatest college QB season of all time.  I know that’s a bold claim, but no matter how I slice it, I can’t come to any other conclusion.

If you thought this article was stupid, awesome, or somewhere in between continue this conversation with me on Google+ or Twitter.