The College Football Market Share Report – Week 4 Recap

Welcome to the College Football Market Share Report, where each week I’ll be running through the players who are shouldering an exceptional percentage of their team’s offense AND defense. Yes, this week I’ve added three defensive metrics to the conversation. I also, separated out the Tight End group, so we can start monitoring them.

In the past, my prospect analysis has typically waited until after the season to get going, but by tracking these stats on a weekly basis in season we can more easily identify exceptional talents before everyone else does.

Note that the commentary below will highlight the most recent week’s top performers as well as seasonal leaders. Also, since this is somewhat of an experimental article, I’m going to ask for your feedback on how this should evolve moving forward, so feel free to leave a comment.

Be warned that this article is dense with numbers. I’d recommend skimming through the names and then checking out the blurbs at the bottom of each section.

**Finally, if you are introduced to any new players through this article, and you end up writing about them, please link back to this work. Thanks!**

Quarterbacks of the week

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss, 92.1% of offensive yards

447 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, -25 rush yards @ Nebraska

Ryan Metz, UTEP, 90.2%

275 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 46 rush yards vs Incarnate Word

Cameron Coffman, Wyoming, 87.7%

366 pass yards, 4 TD, 2 INT, -8 rush yards vs New Mexico

Alex McGough, FIU, 87.7%

263 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 7 rush yards @ Louisiana Tech

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State, 87.1%

270 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 14 rush yards @ Auburn

Kyle Allen, Texas A&M, 85.8%

358 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 5 rush yards @ Arkansas

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 85.3%

402 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 58 rush yards @ Purdue

David Blough, Purdue, 84.5%

340 pass yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 11 rush yards, 1 rush TD vs BG

Cody Kessler, USC, 83.7%

375 pass yards, 5 TD, 1 INT, 6 rush yards @ Arizona State

Brenden Motley, Virginia Tech, 83.4%

281 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 85 rush yards, 1 rush TD @ ECU

For as much buzz as Dak Prescott got last year, it feels like he’s under-appreciated this year, despite posting nearly as impressive numbers through four games… Let’s just appreciate BG’s Matt Johnson for a moment; he’s thrown for 400 yards in each game this season, including three road contests against Power-5 foes (@Tennessee, @Maryland, @Purdue). He won two of those games.

QB Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Offensive Yards

Luke Falk, Washington State, 80.5%

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 79.3%

Brandon Doughty, WKU, 78.0%

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 77.0%

Cameron Coffman, Wyoming, 76.7%

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 76.5%

Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut, 75.2%

Matt Lineham, Idaho, 73.9%

Matt Davis, SMU, 73.3%

Johnny McCrary, Vanderbilt, 72.9%

Last week I got a question about “what’s a good market share for quarterbacks?” To be honest, at this point, the metric is more descriptive than predictive, but that doesn’t make it any less interesting in my opinion. Here are how recent Heisman-winning quarterbacks faired in this metric in their trophy-claiming campaign.

Robert Griffin III (2011) – 65.4%

Johnny Manziel (2012) – 70.5%

Jameis Winston (2013) – 58.8%

Marcus Mariota (2014) – 63.7%

Obviously none of the players included in this week’s leaderboard is in the Heisman conversation (or on a team good enough to get them the national spotlight) but it’s something to keep an eye on. For what it’s worth, TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin is at 65.2% so far.

Running backs of the week

Kalif Phillips, Charlotte, 80.1% of team’s offensive yards

165 rush yards vs Florida Atlantic

Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 63.5%

300 rush yards, 3 rush TD, 4 rec. 45 rec. yards vs Fresno State

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 59.1%

244 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 1 rec., 7 rec. yards @ Syracuse

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 50.0%

206 rush yards, 1 rec., 38 rec. yards, 59 ret. yards @ Oregon State

Dwayne Washington, Washington, 49.4%

109 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 3 rec., 19 rec. yards vs Cal

Tony Pittman, Marshall, 48.7%

129 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 1 rec., 6 rec. yards @ Kent State

James Butler, Nevada, 46.7%

177 rush yards, 1 rush TD @ Buffalo

Greg Howell, Florida Atlantic, 44.6%

56 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 1 rec., 19 rec. yards @ Charlotte

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 44.2%

56 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 4 rec., 51 rec. yards @ Penn State

Kenneth Dixon, Louisiana Tech, 40.7%

169 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 1 rec., 23 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs FIU

More on Leonard Fournette in a moment, but how about SJSU’s Tyler Ervin and SDSU’s Donnel Pumphrey? Both backs are making their second consecutive appearance on this list and have been prolific undersized workhorses… And shoutout to Christian McCaffrey for being the #4 workhorse RB of the week while also contributing 59 return yards in the Cardinal’s road victory over Oregon State.

RB Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Offensive Yards

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 51.9%

Aaron Jones, UTEP, 51.0%

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 45.7%

Jahad Thomas, Temple, 44.6%

Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 43.4%

Devontae Booker, Utah, 39.2%

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 38.1%

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 38.0%

Demario Richard, Arizona State, 35.6%

Jordan Howard, Indiana, 35.6%

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 35.6%

Leonard Fournette has accounted for 51.9% of LSU’s offense so far. By comparison, the last two running backs to win the Heisman accounted for the following: Reggie Bush ’05 (32.7%)  Mark Ingram ’09 (35.3%)… Keep an eye on Indiana RB Jordan Howard, who was a stud at UAB before transfering to the Hoosier program to take over the role vacated by Tevin Coleman. He takes on Ohio State this week in a game that very well might feature the two best draft-eligible RBs in America.

Receivers of the week

Jordan Williams, Ball State, 74.7% of team’s receiving yards

8 receptions, 133 rec. yards, 2 rec. TD @ Northwestern

BJ Johnson, Georgia Southern, 73.2%

4 receptions, 93 rec. yards @ Idaho

Daniel Braverman, Western Michigan, 72.8%

10 receptions, 123 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Ohio State

Drew Morgan, Arkansas, 68.9%

8 receptions, 155 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Texas A&M

DeAndre Ball, Army, 68.4%

2 receptions, 67 rec. yards @ Eastern Michigan

Ricky Jeune, Georgia Tech, 63.6%

4 receptions, 91 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Duke

Carlos Wiggins, New Mexico, 59.8%

1 reception, 64 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Wyoming

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 58.1%

8 receptions, 165 rec. yards, 2 rec. TD vs Georgia Southern

KeeSean Johnson, Fresno State, 56.6%

7 receptions, 90 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ SJSU

Quinton Pedroza, Hawaii, 55.8%

10 receptions, 134 rec. yards, 0 rec. TD @ WIsconsin

On a weekend when two of my absolute favorite WR prospects, (Tajae Sharpe and Corey Davis, both from the MAC) got their time in the national spotlight, it was Ball State’s Jordan Williams who had the show-stealing performance. He’s not quite Tajae or Corey, but he’s the biggest of the trio and has enjoyed a rock-solid career… Shoutout to Arkansas WR Drew Morgan who came through with a huge game in the absence of top target Keon Hatcher.

WR Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Receiving Yards

Jamir Tillman, Navy, 65.5%

Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh, 55.5%

Dameon Gamblin, New Mexico, 51.2%

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 50.7%

BJ Johnson, Georgia Southern, 50.4%

Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 48.3%

Jordan Villamin, Oregon State, 46.6%

Will Fuller, Notre Dame, 46.0%

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 45.7%

Bryan Holmes, Troy, 45.7%

Say hello to Oregon State WR Jordan Villamin, who is a new arrival on this leaderboard. The 6’5 230lb redshirt sophomore (20 years old) is starting to look a lot like a Mike Evans-ish prospect. If you can add him now in a devy league, I would. The kid’s stock is going to skyrocket as the country wakes up to him… And when I say “wake up”, I mean that literally; many of Oregon State’s games finish well after midnight on the east coast.

Tight Ends of the week

Matt Weiser, Buffalo, 38.8% of team’s receiving yards

10 receptions, 131 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Nevada

Ryan Yurachek, Marshall, 38.4%

4 receptions, 58 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Kent State

Joshua Perkins, Washington, 36.2%

5 receptions, 55 rec. yards vs Cal

Ethan Wolf, Tennessee, 33.3%

4 receptions, 55 rec. yards @ Florida

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 32.8%

5 receptions, 84 rec. yards, 2 rec. TD, 2 rushes, 28 rush yards @ South Alabama

Austin Hooper, Stanford, 30.7%

2 receptions, 50 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Oregon State

Steven Scheu, Vanderbilt, 29.4%

5 receptions, 57 rec. yards @ Ole Miss

Hayden Plinke, UTEP, 29.1%

4 receptions, 80 rec. yards vs Incarnate Word

Cam Serigne, Wake Forest, 27.3%

5 receptions, 72 rec. yards, 1 pass attempt vs Indiana

Bucky Hodges, Virginia Tech, 26.0%

5 receptions, 73 rec. yards @ ECU

Honestly, I don’t know very much about this crew except for Hodges and Serigne. The one name that stands out though is Matt Weiser. For one, college tight ends almost never catch 10 passes in a game unless their name is Jace Amaro or Dennis Pitta. Also, homie is 6’5 255lbs, so there’s some meat on those bones.

TE Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Receiving Yards

Gerald Everett, South Alabama, 31.1%

David Morgan II, UTSA, 26.2%

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 25.6%

Ben McCord, Central Michigan, 23.9%

Jake Butt, Michigan, 22.3%

Tyler Higbee, WKU, 22.2%

C.J. Conrad, Kentucky, 22.1%

Hayden Plinke, UTEP, 21.3%

Jerell Adams, South Carolina, 21.0%

Chris Loving, North Texas, 20.9%

If there’s an early front runner to be my top-rated TE for the 2016 draft, it’s Jake Butt. Under Harbaugh, Stanford churned out a series of solid NFL prospects and Harbaugh now appears to be working the same mojo on Michigan’s TE. Listed at 6’6 248lbs, Butt has a strong combination of production, size and pro-style experience…Jaylen Samuels interested me at first, but then I realized he’s only 5’11 and is more of an H-back.

Special Teams Studs of the week

Olamide Zaccheaus, RB, Virginia, 231 return yards vs Boise

J.D. McKissic, WR, Arkansas State, 211 @ Toledo

Brisly Estime, WR, Syracuse, 202 vs LSU

Byron Marshall, WR, Oregon, 178 vs Utah

DeAndre Reaves, WR, Marshall, 170 @ Kent State

Austin Waller, RB, Rice, 140 @ Baylor

Daje Johnson, WR, Texas, 137 vs Oklahoma State

Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State, 137 @ Penn State

Jae’Lon Oglesby, RB, Memphis, 132 vs Cincinnati

Aregeros Turner, WR, Northern Illinois, 117 @ BC

Earlier this year at Rotoviz I wrote about the hidden value of special teams stats for prospects, so I like to monitor these performances.

Special Teams Leaders – Seasonal Top 10

Janarion Grant, WR, Rutgers, 109 return yards/game, 3 return TD

Brisly Estime, WR, Syracuse, 109 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

J.D. McKissic, WR, Arkansas State, 102 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

Byron Marshall, WR, Oregon, 96 ret. yds/gm

Kylen Towner, WR, WKU, 90 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

Rashaad Penny, RB, SDSU, 90 ret. yds/gm, 2 ret. TD

Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M, 90 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

Brett Winnegan, RB, UTSA, 89 ret. yds/gm

Daje Johnson, WR, Texas, 89 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

Devin Fuller, WR, UCLA, 85 ret. yds/gm

If there’s one name here that I’m really high on (besides Christian Kirk) it is Oregon’s Byron Marshall, who I think could be a Randall Cobb-ish, multi-threat prospect.

Defensive Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Total Tackles

Kentrell Brothers, LB, Missouri, 18.8% of total team tackles

Blake Martinez, ILB, Stanford, 18.7%

Steve Longa, LB, Rutgers, 16.4%

Anthony Walker, LB, Northwestern, 16.1%

Elandon Roberts, ILB, Houston, 16.1%

Skai Moore, LB, South Carolina, 15.9%

Christian Tago, LB, San Jose State, 15.4%

Kavon Frazier, DB, Central Michigan, 15.3%

Jalen Reeves-Maybin, LB, Tennessee, 15.2%

Nick Vigil, LB, Utah State, 15.1%

If you’re looking for a reference point here, Luke Kuechly has the TWO best seasons in my IDP database for this metric going back to 2005. In his final season he tallied 22% and in his second-to-last season he accounted for 20.7%. Anything north of 17% should be held in very high regard… Kavon Frazier is the only defensive back on this list.

Defensive Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Tackles for Loss

Ben Goodman Jr., DE, Kansas, 56.3% of team’s tackles for loss

Darius Latham, DT, Indiana, 41.7%

Jerrian Roberts, DE, North Texas, 41.7%

Woody Baron, DT, Virginia Tech, 38.9%

Bernard Dawson, DE, Georgia Southern, 37.5%

Anthony Walker, LB, Northwestern, 33.3%

Jon Schobert, OLB, Wisconsin, 32.8%

Trevon Coley, DT, Florida Atlantic, 31.6%

Nick Gilbo, LB, Buffalo, 30.6%

Alvin Jones, LB, UTEP, 30.0%

Alonzo McGee, LB, Georgia State, 30.0%

Quinton Bradley, DE, Idaho, 30.0%

Dominique Tovell, LB, Louisiana-Lafayette, 30.0%

If you’re looking for a flag bearer here, look at Aaron Donald, who accounted for 33.1% of Pitt’s tackles for loss in his final season. Anything above 25% is quite good, which all of these guys are now, but expect them to come back to earth as the sample size grows… Note that Indiana’s Darius Latham has been suspended for this weekend’s game against Ohio State, which is a killer for that D… Also, Anthony Walker from Northwestern is the only player to appear on both the tackles and tackles-for-loss leaderboards.

Defensive Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Passes Broken Up

Latrell Gibbs, DB, Appalachian State, 75% of team’s PBU

Tyree Simmons, DB, Colorado State, 70%

Mike Stevens, CB, NC State, CB, 66.7%

Heath Harding, CB, Miami OH, 66.7%

D.J. May, LB, Wyoming, 60%

Nick Nelson, DB, Hawaii, 57.1%

Jalen Davis, CB, Utah State, 50%

Anthony Makransky, DB, Wyoming, 50%

Jeremiah Harris, DL, Eastern Michigan, 50%

Brian Peavy, DB, Iowa State, 50%

Avonte Maddox, DB, Pittsburgh, 50%

Kevin Vaccaro, S, Texas, 50%

Lance Austin, DB, Georgia Tech, 50%

Anything above 35% is really strong. Again, expect regression here. Oh, and say hi to another Texas Vaccaro.

Questions

  1. Did you like seeing the defensive metrics, or are those overkill?
  2. I heard some feedback that the old layout was tough to read. Is this new wordpress theme better?
  3. Would you like access to the data set that helped generate this article? If so, you could email me at THECFX at GMAIL dot COM, or I could just set up a link with a free download. Let me know.

Who to watch: Oregon v. Kansas State (Fiesta Bowl)

Fiesta Bowl

Thursday, January 3, 8:00pm EST

ESPN

Run Kenjon Run!

Oregon

Kenjon Barner, #24, Senior, RB

Confession: my actual favorite player in this game is Marcus Mariota, who I think blows Collin Klein out of the water and gives Johnny Football Manziel a run for his money.  But, Mariota is just a RS freshman, so I’ll digress…

The Oregon Ducks offense is incredibly high powered (duh) and spreads the ball around to expose a defense’s weakness.  That said, some weeks guys get their touches, other weeks they don’t.  When Kenjon Barner got the ball for the Ducks, the results were absurd.  In seven different games he scored 2+ rushing touchdowns while averaging at least 5.9 yards per carry in each game.  For the season, when evaluating his premier game performance, Barner’s average stat line checks in at:

24.7 carries

152 yards

(6.14  yards/carry)

2 rushing touchdowns

These marks are all near the best in the country, and as an overall package, I’d rank Barner with UCLA’s Franklin and UNC’s Bernard as the most dominant on-field producers in college football.  Tonight, Oregon faces the #17 run defense in the NCAA.  It will be fascinating to see how Barner fairs against them.

And for the record, I have no interest in Collin Klein as a pro prospect.

Marcus Football

Johnny Football Fever is taking America by storm!  By most accounts Johnny Manziel will become the first freshman to ever win this Heisman trophy this weekend over Notre Dame LB Manti Te’o and Kansas State QB Collin Klein.  But what if I told you that the soon-to-be first freshman to ever win the Heisman isn’t even the best freshman QB in America?

Huh?

Read on.

Meet Marcus Mariota.  He is the starting quarterback of the Oregon Ducks.  Like Johnny Manziel, he is also a redshirt freshman QB on a top 10 team.  Similar to Johnny, Marcus is a dual-threat QB who ran the ball about 100 times this season.  What he and Johnny don’t have in common is a plane ticket to New York City.  How is this possible?  No, seriously, how?

Ok, maybe you’re not ready to knock Johnny down a peg, so let’s look at Collin Klein.  At the very least, why is Collin Klein a  Heisman finalist?  Yes, let’s start there.  Let’s start by examining the case for Marcus Mariota over Collin Klein.

To win the Heisman, players need to play great in the biggest games.  Let’s cut straight to the chase and examine Mariota v Klein against the four toughest defenses on their respective schedules (using Phil Steele’s Pass Efficiency Defense ratings)

Avg Rank of Opponent’s Defense:

  • Mariota- 10.75   (arizona state, stanford, washington, oregon st)
  • Klein- 23   (texas, oklahoma, tcu, texas tech)

# Games with 2+ TD passes

  • Mariota- 1/4
  • Klein- 0/4

Passes/ Game

  • Mariota- 24.3
  • Klein- 19.5

Completion %

  • Mariota- 63.9 %
  • Klein- 62.8 %

Passes per TD  (lower is better)

  • Mariota- 13.86
  • Klein- 78

Passes per INT  (higher is better)

  • Mariota- 48.5
  • Klein- 39

Passer Grade in My System  (anything over 95= potentially elite prospect)

  • Mariota- 96.2
  • Klein- 86.6

Rushing

  • Mariota- 37 rushes, 349 yards (9.4 YPC)
  • Klein- 72 rushes, 296 yards  (4.1 YPC)

Total Touchdowns

  • Mariota- 9
  • Klein- 7

By pretty much every measure, Mariota wins out over Klein, either as an effective passer or an explosive runner.  I CANNOT WAIT to see Oregon face Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl.  As you’re watching that game, remember this article when you’re surprised by how excellent Mariota plays.

But what about Mariota v. Manziel?  Again, we’ll look at their four toughest games.

Avg Rank of Opponent’s Defense:

  • Manziel-  8   (Florida, Alabama, LSU, SMU)
  • Mariota- 10.75   (Arizona St, Stanford, Washington, Oregon St)

# Games with 2+ TD passes

  • Manziel- 2/4
  • Mariota- 1/4

Passes/ Game

  • Manziel- 38.3
  • Mariota- 24.3

Completion %

  • Mariota- 63.9 %
  • Manziel- 62.8 %

Passes per TD  (lower is better)

  • Mariota- 13.86
  • Manziel- 25.5

Passes per INT  (higher is better)

  • Manziel- 51
  • Mariota- 48.5

Passer Grade in My System  (anything over 95= potentially elite prospect)

  • Mariota- 96.2
  • Manziel- 83.3

Rushing

  • Mariota- 37 rushes, 349 yards (9.4 YPC)
  • Manziel- 55 rushes, 303 yards  (5.5 YPC)

Total Touchdowns

  • Mariota- 9
  • Manziel- 9

By my count, that’s a pretty even race with the underlying numbers revealing VERY similar talents.

If and when Johnny Manziel wins the Heisman this weekend, be happy for him.  I will be.  The kid came out of nowhere to have a phenomenal season.  That said, don’t be surprised if one year from now it is Marcus Mariota who hears his name called as the Heisman Trophy winner for the 2013 season.