The College Football Market Share Report – Season Recap

That’s all, folks! The 2015-16 College Football season is officially over. It’s almost time to turn our attention to draft season, but before we do here is one final Market Share Report.

For this edition I’ve made a few tweaks, including a section for best past-catching running backs. Also, for anyone who I know is entering the 2016 NFL Draft, I’ve put an asterisk by their name.

How you might want to interact with this article:
1) Skim the dense parts and read the summaries at the end of each section
2) Find rockstar performances and focus on those in your film-watching endeavors
3) Leave a comment because comments are fun

With this being the last article in this series, I ask that, if you enjoyed this publication throughout the season, you consider supporting my work via a paypal donation.

Quarterbacks of Bowl Season

Sean Maguire, Florida State, 92.7% of team’s offensive yards

  • 22-44, 392 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT vs Houston

Patrick Mahomes II, Texas Tech, 85.7%

  • 28-56, 370 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT vs LSU

Lamar Jackson, Louisville, 84.8%

  • 12-26, 227 yards, 2 TD, 226 rush yards, 2 rush TD vs Texas A&M

Tanner Mangum, BYU, 82.4%

  • 25-56, 315 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT, 1 rush TD vs Utah

*Mike Bercovici, Arizona State, 82.3%

  • 29-52, 418 yards, 4 TD, 10 rush yards vs WVU

*Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State, 82.3%

  • 14-29, 208 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT vs SJSU

Skyler Howard, West Virginia, 82.1%

  • 28-51, 532 yards, 5 TD, 2 INT, 23 rush yards vs ASU

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss, 81.9%

  • 25-38, 331 yards, 2 TD vs Washington

Thomas Woodson, Akron, 81.2%

  • 14-29, 168 yards, 1 INT, 47 rush yards, rec. TD vs Utah St

Josh Rosen, UCLA, 79.8%

  • 26-40, 319 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT vs Nebraska

ACC fans might want to take note of Louisville and QB Lamar Jackson. He posted massive dual-threat production in the bowl game and is just a sophomore next year. Bobby Petrino will be in his third season, which was a fruitful point during his first stay at Louisville and at Arkansas; he lost no more than three games in either of those “year threes”… it might be fun to go back and watch that ASU-WVU bowl game, considering it had two quarterbacks going absolutely bonkers in it.

 

Seasonal QB Leaders

Luke Falk, Washington State, 76.8% of team’s offensive yards

  • 6’4, 205lbs, Sophomore

*Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State, 75.9%

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 74.6%

  • 6’3, 227lbs, Junior

*Dak Prescott, Mississippi State, 73.2%

  • 6’2, 230lbs, Senior

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 71.8%

  • 6’0, 211lbs, Freshman

*Jeff Driskel, Louisiana Tech, 69.4%

  • 6’4, 231lbs, Senior

Riley Neal, Ball State, 68.7%

  • 6’5, 217lbs, Freshman

*Jared Goff, Cal, 68.6%

  • 6’2, 215lbs, Junior

Brent Stockstill, MTSU, 68%

  • 6’0, 200lbs, Freshman

Patrick Mahomes II, Texas Tech, 67.9%

  • 6’3, 219lbs, Sophomore

Alex McGough, FIU, 67.5%

  • 6’3, 218lbs, Sophomore

Deshaun Watson, Clemson, 67.5%

  • 6’2, 210lbs, Sophomore

Chad Kelly, Ole Miss, 67.5%

  • 6’2, 215lbs, Junior

It’s fun to see Jared Goff end the year with a bang and climb so high up this list. An early declaration, he’s almost certain to go in the first round. Just for fun, I thought I’d check on how first-round quarterbacks from the last two years fared in terms of final-seasons market share of offense:

  • Winston – 67.8%
  • Mariota – 64.0%
  • Bortles – 67.1%
  • Manziel – 69.6%
  • Bridgewater – 67.6%

The average is 67.2%, which is slightly below Goff’s mark (68.9%), and he did himself no favors with his rushing ability… As later-round prospects, it will be fun to see where Dak Prescott and Jeff Driskel end up going… Say hello to Deshaun Watson, Chad Kelly and Patrick Mahomes, who should be among college football’s most exciting quarterbacks in 2016.

 

Running Backs of Bowl Season

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 64.6%

  • 18 carries, 172 yards, 105 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD, 91 ret. yards, 1 ret. TD vs Iowa

Joe Williams, Utah, 57.4%

  • 25 carries, 91 yards, 2 TD, 22 rec. yards vs BYU

James Butler, Nevada, 54.8%

  • 24 carries, 189 yards, 2 TD vs Colorado St

Romello Ross, Central Michigan, 51.4%

  • 19 carries, 100 yards, 1 TD, 28 rec. yards vs Minnesota

Joel Bouagnon, Northern Illinois, 48.5%

  • 8 carries, 16 yards vs Boise

*Tyler Ervin, SJSU, 45.1%

  • 30 carries, 132 yards, 98 return yards vs Georgia State

Johnny Jefferson, Baylor, 42.7%

  • 23 carries, 299 yards, 3 TD, 24 pass yards vs UNC

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 40.1%

  • 29 carries, 212 yards, 4 TD, 44 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Texas Tech

Donnel Pumphrey, SDSU, 39.9%

  • 25 carries, 99 yards, 1 TD, 19 rec. yards, 16 pass yards vs Cincinnati

Marcus Cox, Appalachian State, 37.9%

  • 24 carries, 162 yards, 1 TD vs Ohio

Bowl season and pretty much everything else for the last two months (except the Heisman) has belonged to Christian McCaffrey. If there’s a single bowl season performance worth going back to re-watch, it’s him in the Rose Bowl. I know this is going to sound absurd, and there will almost certainly be “white running back” stereotypes to overcome, but I think he’s a borderline Reggie Bush caliber prospect… Johnny Jefferson might be the only player in McCaffrey’s tier of bowl-studliness. When looking at his bowl game and last regular season game, he rushed for 457 yards on 46 carries. Bye bye, Shock Linwood. Heeeeeeereeee’s Johnny!… Keep an eye on Marcus Cox next year for App State. That program is on the rise and he’s their best offensive player.

 

Seasonal RB Leaders

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 44.3% of team’s offensive yards

  • 6’0, 201lbs, Sophomore

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 42%

  • 6’1, 230lbs, Sophomore

*Devontae Booker, Utah, 41.2%

  • 6’1, 212lbs, Senior

Brian Hill, Wyoming, 40.7%

  • 6’1, 211lbs, Sophomore

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 39.7%

  • 5’9, 180lbs, Junior

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 39.2%

  • 5’11, 202lbs, Sophomore

Larry Rose III, New Mexico State, 37.2%

  • 5’11, 184lbs, Sophomore

Justin Jackson, Northwestern, 37.2%

  • 5’11, 190lbs, Sophomore

*Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 36.8%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Senior

*Derrick Henry, Alabama, 36.1%

  • 6’3, 242lbs, Junior

*Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State, 35.9%

  • 6’0, 225lbs, Junior

What a remarkable year for college running backs. Not sure how else to say it. And even though  Zeke, Derrick and Devontae are off to the NFL, next year will be loaded to with many of the names on this list returning and a few others like Royce Freeman, Marlon Mack, Saquon Barkley and more to sprinkle in… And for the record, I’m still not over the fact that Derrick Henry won the Heisman, depsite accounting for roughly eight percent less of his offense than McCaffrey did on similarly outstanding teams.

 

Seasonal RB Leaders – Pass Catching

Taquan Mizzell, Virginia, 25.2% of team’s receiving yards

  • 5’10, 195lb, Junior

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 21.8%

  • 6’0, 201lbs, Sophomore

*Jalin Marshall, Ohio State, 21.3%

  • 5’11, 205lbs, RS-Sophomore

Ervin Phillips, Syracuse, 21.3%

  • 5’11, 181lbs, Sophomore

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 20.9%

  • 5’9, 180lbs, Junior

Arkeel Newsome, Connecticut, 19.3%

  • 5’7, 182lbs, Sophomore

Clinton Lynch, Georgia Tech, 18.7%

  • 6’0, 181lbs, Freshman

*Dwayne Washington, Washington, 17.5%

  • 6’2, 226lbs, Junior

Papi White, Ohio, 17.5%

  • 5’9, 166lbs, Freshman

Raekwon James, Kent State, 17.3%

  • 5’9, 187lbs, Freshman

Ben Lewis, Syracuse, 16.5%

  • 6’2, 213lbs, Junior

*Devontae Booker, Utah, 15.5%

  • 5’11, 212lbs, Senior

This is a new category and I’m not entirely sure how relevant it is, but I thought it was interesting. Two of the more head-scratching NFL Draft early entries – Marshall and Washington – show up on this list, which could help explain their entries despite their substandard rushing production… On the other hand, Devontae Booker is a badass on all fronts… And shoutout to Donnel Pumphrey, who appears on both the overall running back leaderboard and the pass-catching back leaderboard. He’s so tiny, but so talented.

Service academy footnotes: Timothy McVey (Air Force, 22.2%), John Trainor (Army, 20.1%), DeBrandon Sanders (Navy, 19.5%)

 

Wide Receivers of Bowl Season

*Malcolm Mitchell, Georgia, 70.8% of team’s receiving yards

  • 5 rec., 114 yards, 1 TD vs Penn State

Isaiah Ford, Virginia Tech, 66%

  • 12 rec., 227 yards, 1 TD, 23 rush yards vs Tulsa

Josh Reynolds, Texas A&M, 57.7%

  • 11 rec., 177 yards vs Louisville

Jerico Richardson, Nevada, 56.8%

  • 4 rec,. 42 yards vs Colorado St

*Cayleb Jones, Arizona, 55.3%

  • 4 rec., 182 yards, 1 TD vs New Mexico

Corey Davis, Western Michigan, 55.3%

  • 8 rec., 183 yards, 1 TD vs MTSU

Justin Holmes, SJSU, 53.9%

  • 3 rec., 48 yards vs Georgia State

*Mike Thomas, Southern Miss, 53.8%

  • 9 rec., 190 yards, 2 TD, 34 ret. yards vs Washington

Andrew Pratt, Akron, 51.6%

  • 9 rec., 94 yards vs Utah State

Travis Rudolph, Florida State, 50.6%

  • 7 rec., 201 yards, 1 TD vs Houston

Good on Malcolm Mitchell to finish an adventurous career with an epic performance in his bowl game. I’m not that high on him as a prospect (for now), but going over 100 yards and 70% of his team’s passing offense is ridiculous… DEVY OWNERS – keep an eye on Isaiah Ford. He’s just 19 years old, went nuts in his bowl game and accounted for nearly 40% of his team’s receiving yards on the year. That is ELITE… Finally, be aware of Mike Thomas from Southern Miss. Not to be confused with Mike Thomas from Ohio State or a million other Mike Thomases. This kid can play and is almost certainly a top 10 receiver in this draft for me. Much more to come on him.

 

Seasonal WR Leaders

*Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 47.2% of team’s receiving yards

  • 5’10, 175lbs, Senior

*Leonte Carroo, Rutgers, 43.6% of receiving yards

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Tanner Gentry, Wyoming, 43.6%

  • 6’2, 201lbs, Junior

*Tajae Sharpe, UMass, 42.7%

  • 6’3, 188lbs, Senior

BJ Johnson, Georgia Southern, 41.8%

  • 6’1, 212lbs, Junior

Isaiah Ford, Virginia Tech, 39.6%

  • 6’2, 188lbs, Sophomore

Chris Godwin, Penn State, 39.5%

  • 6’1, 208lbs, Sophomore

*Tyler Boyd, Pitt, 39.5%

  • 6’2, 200lbs, Junior

*Pharoh Cooper, South Carolina, 39.1%

  • 5’11, 207lbs, Junior

Kenny Golladay, Northern Illinois, 38.7%

  • 6’4, 200lbs, Junior

JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC, 38.5%

  • 6’2, 215lbs, Sophomore

Corey Davis (my love), Western Michigan, 38.4%

  • 6’3, 205lbs, Junior

*Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 38.4%

  • 6’1, 208lbs, Senior

Exciting to see that this leaderboard is peppered with players who will be in the 2016 NFL Draft. I’ve already written about a number of them at RotoViz and plan to hit more in the coming weeks:

Looking ahead to 2016, Ford, Godwin, Juju and Corey Davis are among the top returning receiver prospects… About Dezmon Epps, he only played six games this year, and he’s miniature, but he was really good in those games, so I cheated a bit on my games played requirement and included him for draft awareness purposes.

Service Academy footnotes: Jamir Tillman (51.3%, Navy), Edgar Poe (44.6%, Army)

Jerome Lane footnotes: 32% of Akron’s yards

 

Tight Ends of Bowl Season

Cole Hikutini, Louisville, 45.4% of team’s receiving yards

  • 3 rec., 103 yards vs NC State

O.J. Howard, Alabama, 45% (2 games)

  • 8 rec., 267 yards, 2 TD vs Michigan St, Clemson

Pharoah McKever, NC State, 38.3%

  • 1 rec., 82 yards, 1 TD vs Mississippi State

Alex Ellis, Tennessee, 38.1%

  • 3 rec., 74 yards vs Northwestern

Ari Werts, Georgia State, 30.3%

  • 3 rec., 63 yards vs SJSU

*Hunter Henry, Arkansas, 29.2%

  • 5 rec., 92 yards vs Kansas State

*Ben McCord, Central Michigan, 29%

  • 2 rec., 42 yards vs Minnesota

Alec Bloom, UConn, 27.9%

  • 2 rec., 24 yards vs Marshall

Evan Engram, Ole Miss, 27.7%

  • 6 rec., 96 yards vs Oklahoma State

Barrett Burns, Appalachian St, 25.8%

  • 3 rec., 32 yards, 2 TD vs Ohio

After years of hearing about O.J. Howard and not seeing any production, it was exciting to see him blow up in the National Championship game. Paging Lane Kiffin, please use him more next year… Hunter Henry is a name you need to know, if you don’t already. Probably my top TE prospect for the 2016 Draft.

 

Seasonal TE Leaders

*David Morgan II, UTSA, 24.4% of team’s receiving yards

  • 6’4, 260lbs, Senior

Gerald Everett, South Alabama, 24%

  • 6’4, 225lbs, Junior

*Rodney Mills, UMass, 21.9%

  • 6’1, 205lbs, Senior

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 21.8%

  • 5’11, 236lbs, Sophomore

O.J. Howard, Alabama, 21.2%

  • 6’6, 242lbs, Junior

*Dan Vitale, Northwestern, 21.2%

  • 6’2, 235lbs, Senior

*Hunter Henry, Arkansas, 21.2%

  • 6’5, 253lbs, Junior

Jake Butt, Michigan, 21.2%

  • 6’6, 248lbs, Junior

Billy Freeman, SJSU, 21.2%

  • 6’3, 232lbs, Junior

*Matt Weiser, Buffalo, 20.9%

  • 6’5, 255lbs, Senior

Cam Serigne, Wake Forest, 20.5%

  • 6’3, 245lbs, R-Sophomore

Brandon Lingen, Minnesota, 20.2%

  • 6’5, 247lbs, Sophomore

The 2016 TE class looks like it’s going to take a hit by not having Serigne, Hodges, Butt and Engram not declare, but I’m intrigued by what David Morgan II and, to a lesser extent, Matt Weiser might have to offer.

 

Seasonal Special Teams Leaders

Janarion Grant, Rutgers, WR, 91.3% of team’s return yards

  • 5’11, 170lbs, Junior

Brisly Estime, Syracuse, WR, 89.6%

  • 5’9, 178lbs, Junior

*Derek Keaton, Georgia Southern, WR, 89.6%

  • 5’11, 185lbs, Senior

Kylen Towner, Western Kentucky, WR, 89.4%

  • 5’8, 175lbs, Sophomore

*Teddy Ruben, Troy, WR, 87.3%

  • 5’7, 161lbs, Senior

KaVontae Turpin, TCU, WR, 86.7%

  • 5’9, 152lbs, Freshman

*Deandre Reaves, Marshall, WR, 86.2%

  • 5’10, 179lbs, Senior

*Tyler Ervin, SJSU, RB, 85.2%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Senior

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, RB, 84.6%

  • 6’0, 201lbs, Sophomore

*Jakeem Grant, Texas Tech, WR, 83.6%

  • 5’7, 168lbs, Senior

I’ve written in the past about how special teams contributions are a key to finding hidden value, and I’m curious about how Jakeem Grant will fare in the coming months. He’s pretty dynamic and looked great against LSU in his bowl game.

And, yes, I’m aware that I used the same Christian McCaffrey photo on this article and the last in-season one, but he’s earned it.

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The College Football Market Share Report – Week 4 Recap

Welcome to the College Football Market Share Report, where each week I’ll be running through the players who are shouldering an exceptional percentage of their team’s offense AND defense. Yes, this week I’ve added three defensive metrics to the conversation. I also, separated out the Tight End group, so we can start monitoring them.

In the past, my prospect analysis has typically waited until after the season to get going, but by tracking these stats on a weekly basis in season we can more easily identify exceptional talents before everyone else does.

Note that the commentary below will highlight the most recent week’s top performers as well as seasonal leaders. Also, since this is somewhat of an experimental article, I’m going to ask for your feedback on how this should evolve moving forward, so feel free to leave a comment.

Be warned that this article is dense with numbers. I’d recommend skimming through the names and then checking out the blurbs at the bottom of each section.

**Finally, if you are introduced to any new players through this article, and you end up writing about them, please link back to this work. Thanks!**

Quarterbacks of the week

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss, 92.1% of offensive yards

447 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, -25 rush yards @ Nebraska

Ryan Metz, UTEP, 90.2%

275 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 46 rush yards vs Incarnate Word

Cameron Coffman, Wyoming, 87.7%

366 pass yards, 4 TD, 2 INT, -8 rush yards vs New Mexico

Alex McGough, FIU, 87.7%

263 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 7 rush yards @ Louisiana Tech

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State, 87.1%

270 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 14 rush yards @ Auburn

Kyle Allen, Texas A&M, 85.8%

358 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 5 rush yards @ Arkansas

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 85.3%

402 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 58 rush yards @ Purdue

David Blough, Purdue, 84.5%

340 pass yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 11 rush yards, 1 rush TD vs BG

Cody Kessler, USC, 83.7%

375 pass yards, 5 TD, 1 INT, 6 rush yards @ Arizona State

Brenden Motley, Virginia Tech, 83.4%

281 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 85 rush yards, 1 rush TD @ ECU

For as much buzz as Dak Prescott got last year, it feels like he’s under-appreciated this year, despite posting nearly as impressive numbers through four games… Let’s just appreciate BG’s Matt Johnson for a moment; he’s thrown for 400 yards in each game this season, including three road contests against Power-5 foes (@Tennessee, @Maryland, @Purdue). He won two of those games.

QB Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Offensive Yards

Luke Falk, Washington State, 80.5%

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 79.3%

Brandon Doughty, WKU, 78.0%

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 77.0%

Cameron Coffman, Wyoming, 76.7%

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 76.5%

Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut, 75.2%

Matt Lineham, Idaho, 73.9%

Matt Davis, SMU, 73.3%

Johnny McCrary, Vanderbilt, 72.9%

Last week I got a question about “what’s a good market share for quarterbacks?” To be honest, at this point, the metric is more descriptive than predictive, but that doesn’t make it any less interesting in my opinion. Here are how recent Heisman-winning quarterbacks faired in this metric in their trophy-claiming campaign.

Robert Griffin III (2011) – 65.4%

Johnny Manziel (2012) – 70.5%

Jameis Winston (2013) – 58.8%

Marcus Mariota (2014) – 63.7%

Obviously none of the players included in this week’s leaderboard is in the Heisman conversation (or on a team good enough to get them the national spotlight) but it’s something to keep an eye on. For what it’s worth, TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin is at 65.2% so far.

Running backs of the week

Kalif Phillips, Charlotte, 80.1% of team’s offensive yards

165 rush yards vs Florida Atlantic

Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 63.5%

300 rush yards, 3 rush TD, 4 rec. 45 rec. yards vs Fresno State

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 59.1%

244 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 1 rec., 7 rec. yards @ Syracuse

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 50.0%

206 rush yards, 1 rec., 38 rec. yards, 59 ret. yards @ Oregon State

Dwayne Washington, Washington, 49.4%

109 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 3 rec., 19 rec. yards vs Cal

Tony Pittman, Marshall, 48.7%

129 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 1 rec., 6 rec. yards @ Kent State

James Butler, Nevada, 46.7%

177 rush yards, 1 rush TD @ Buffalo

Greg Howell, Florida Atlantic, 44.6%

56 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 1 rec., 19 rec. yards @ Charlotte

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 44.2%

56 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 4 rec., 51 rec. yards @ Penn State

Kenneth Dixon, Louisiana Tech, 40.7%

169 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 1 rec., 23 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs FIU

More on Leonard Fournette in a moment, but how about SJSU’s Tyler Ervin and SDSU’s Donnel Pumphrey? Both backs are making their second consecutive appearance on this list and have been prolific undersized workhorses… And shoutout to Christian McCaffrey for being the #4 workhorse RB of the week while also contributing 59 return yards in the Cardinal’s road victory over Oregon State.

RB Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Offensive Yards

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 51.9%

Aaron Jones, UTEP, 51.0%

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 45.7%

Jahad Thomas, Temple, 44.6%

Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 43.4%

Devontae Booker, Utah, 39.2%

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 38.1%

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 38.0%

Demario Richard, Arizona State, 35.6%

Jordan Howard, Indiana, 35.6%

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 35.6%

Leonard Fournette has accounted for 51.9% of LSU’s offense so far. By comparison, the last two running backs to win the Heisman accounted for the following: Reggie Bush ’05 (32.7%)  Mark Ingram ’09 (35.3%)… Keep an eye on Indiana RB Jordan Howard, who was a stud at UAB before transfering to the Hoosier program to take over the role vacated by Tevin Coleman. He takes on Ohio State this week in a game that very well might feature the two best draft-eligible RBs in America.

Receivers of the week

Jordan Williams, Ball State, 74.7% of team’s receiving yards

8 receptions, 133 rec. yards, 2 rec. TD @ Northwestern

BJ Johnson, Georgia Southern, 73.2%

4 receptions, 93 rec. yards @ Idaho

Daniel Braverman, Western Michigan, 72.8%

10 receptions, 123 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Ohio State

Drew Morgan, Arkansas, 68.9%

8 receptions, 155 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Texas A&M

DeAndre Ball, Army, 68.4%

2 receptions, 67 rec. yards @ Eastern Michigan

Ricky Jeune, Georgia Tech, 63.6%

4 receptions, 91 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Duke

Carlos Wiggins, New Mexico, 59.8%

1 reception, 64 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Wyoming

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 58.1%

8 receptions, 165 rec. yards, 2 rec. TD vs Georgia Southern

KeeSean Johnson, Fresno State, 56.6%

7 receptions, 90 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ SJSU

Quinton Pedroza, Hawaii, 55.8%

10 receptions, 134 rec. yards, 0 rec. TD @ WIsconsin

On a weekend when two of my absolute favorite WR prospects, (Tajae Sharpe and Corey Davis, both from the MAC) got their time in the national spotlight, it was Ball State’s Jordan Williams who had the show-stealing performance. He’s not quite Tajae or Corey, but he’s the biggest of the trio and has enjoyed a rock-solid career… Shoutout to Arkansas WR Drew Morgan who came through with a huge game in the absence of top target Keon Hatcher.

WR Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Receiving Yards

Jamir Tillman, Navy, 65.5%

Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh, 55.5%

Dameon Gamblin, New Mexico, 51.2%

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 50.7%

BJ Johnson, Georgia Southern, 50.4%

Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 48.3%

Jordan Villamin, Oregon State, 46.6%

Will Fuller, Notre Dame, 46.0%

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 45.7%

Bryan Holmes, Troy, 45.7%

Say hello to Oregon State WR Jordan Villamin, who is a new arrival on this leaderboard. The 6’5 230lb redshirt sophomore (20 years old) is starting to look a lot like a Mike Evans-ish prospect. If you can add him now in a devy league, I would. The kid’s stock is going to skyrocket as the country wakes up to him… And when I say “wake up”, I mean that literally; many of Oregon State’s games finish well after midnight on the east coast.

Tight Ends of the week

Matt Weiser, Buffalo, 38.8% of team’s receiving yards

10 receptions, 131 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Nevada

Ryan Yurachek, Marshall, 38.4%

4 receptions, 58 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Kent State

Joshua Perkins, Washington, 36.2%

5 receptions, 55 rec. yards vs Cal

Ethan Wolf, Tennessee, 33.3%

4 receptions, 55 rec. yards @ Florida

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 32.8%

5 receptions, 84 rec. yards, 2 rec. TD, 2 rushes, 28 rush yards @ South Alabama

Austin Hooper, Stanford, 30.7%

2 receptions, 50 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Oregon State

Steven Scheu, Vanderbilt, 29.4%

5 receptions, 57 rec. yards @ Ole Miss

Hayden Plinke, UTEP, 29.1%

4 receptions, 80 rec. yards vs Incarnate Word

Cam Serigne, Wake Forest, 27.3%

5 receptions, 72 rec. yards, 1 pass attempt vs Indiana

Bucky Hodges, Virginia Tech, 26.0%

5 receptions, 73 rec. yards @ ECU

Honestly, I don’t know very much about this crew except for Hodges and Serigne. The one name that stands out though is Matt Weiser. For one, college tight ends almost never catch 10 passes in a game unless their name is Jace Amaro or Dennis Pitta. Also, homie is 6’5 255lbs, so there’s some meat on those bones.

TE Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Receiving Yards

Gerald Everett, South Alabama, 31.1%

David Morgan II, UTSA, 26.2%

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 25.6%

Ben McCord, Central Michigan, 23.9%

Jake Butt, Michigan, 22.3%

Tyler Higbee, WKU, 22.2%

C.J. Conrad, Kentucky, 22.1%

Hayden Plinke, UTEP, 21.3%

Jerell Adams, South Carolina, 21.0%

Chris Loving, North Texas, 20.9%

If there’s an early front runner to be my top-rated TE for the 2016 draft, it’s Jake Butt. Under Harbaugh, Stanford churned out a series of solid NFL prospects and Harbaugh now appears to be working the same mojo on Michigan’s TE. Listed at 6’6 248lbs, Butt has a strong combination of production, size and pro-style experience…Jaylen Samuels interested me at first, but then I realized he’s only 5’11 and is more of an H-back.

Special Teams Studs of the week

Olamide Zaccheaus, RB, Virginia, 231 return yards vs Boise

J.D. McKissic, WR, Arkansas State, 211 @ Toledo

Brisly Estime, WR, Syracuse, 202 vs LSU

Byron Marshall, WR, Oregon, 178 vs Utah

DeAndre Reaves, WR, Marshall, 170 @ Kent State

Austin Waller, RB, Rice, 140 @ Baylor

Daje Johnson, WR, Texas, 137 vs Oklahoma State

Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State, 137 @ Penn State

Jae’Lon Oglesby, RB, Memphis, 132 vs Cincinnati

Aregeros Turner, WR, Northern Illinois, 117 @ BC

Earlier this year at Rotoviz I wrote about the hidden value of special teams stats for prospects, so I like to monitor these performances.

Special Teams Leaders – Seasonal Top 10

Janarion Grant, WR, Rutgers, 109 return yards/game, 3 return TD

Brisly Estime, WR, Syracuse, 109 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

J.D. McKissic, WR, Arkansas State, 102 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

Byron Marshall, WR, Oregon, 96 ret. yds/gm

Kylen Towner, WR, WKU, 90 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

Rashaad Penny, RB, SDSU, 90 ret. yds/gm, 2 ret. TD

Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M, 90 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

Brett Winnegan, RB, UTSA, 89 ret. yds/gm

Daje Johnson, WR, Texas, 89 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

Devin Fuller, WR, UCLA, 85 ret. yds/gm

If there’s one name here that I’m really high on (besides Christian Kirk) it is Oregon’s Byron Marshall, who I think could be a Randall Cobb-ish, multi-threat prospect.

Defensive Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Total Tackles

Kentrell Brothers, LB, Missouri, 18.8% of total team tackles

Blake Martinez, ILB, Stanford, 18.7%

Steve Longa, LB, Rutgers, 16.4%

Anthony Walker, LB, Northwestern, 16.1%

Elandon Roberts, ILB, Houston, 16.1%

Skai Moore, LB, South Carolina, 15.9%

Christian Tago, LB, San Jose State, 15.4%

Kavon Frazier, DB, Central Michigan, 15.3%

Jalen Reeves-Maybin, LB, Tennessee, 15.2%

Nick Vigil, LB, Utah State, 15.1%

If you’re looking for a reference point here, Luke Kuechly has the TWO best seasons in my IDP database for this metric going back to 2005. In his final season he tallied 22% and in his second-to-last season he accounted for 20.7%. Anything north of 17% should be held in very high regard… Kavon Frazier is the only defensive back on this list.

Defensive Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Tackles for Loss

Ben Goodman Jr., DE, Kansas, 56.3% of team’s tackles for loss

Darius Latham, DT, Indiana, 41.7%

Jerrian Roberts, DE, North Texas, 41.7%

Woody Baron, DT, Virginia Tech, 38.9%

Bernard Dawson, DE, Georgia Southern, 37.5%

Anthony Walker, LB, Northwestern, 33.3%

Jon Schobert, OLB, Wisconsin, 32.8%

Trevon Coley, DT, Florida Atlantic, 31.6%

Nick Gilbo, LB, Buffalo, 30.6%

Alvin Jones, LB, UTEP, 30.0%

Alonzo McGee, LB, Georgia State, 30.0%

Quinton Bradley, DE, Idaho, 30.0%

Dominique Tovell, LB, Louisiana-Lafayette, 30.0%

If you’re looking for a flag bearer here, look at Aaron Donald, who accounted for 33.1% of Pitt’s tackles for loss in his final season. Anything above 25% is quite good, which all of these guys are now, but expect them to come back to earth as the sample size grows… Note that Indiana’s Darius Latham has been suspended for this weekend’s game against Ohio State, which is a killer for that D… Also, Anthony Walker from Northwestern is the only player to appear on both the tackles and tackles-for-loss leaderboards.

Defensive Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Passes Broken Up

Latrell Gibbs, DB, Appalachian State, 75% of team’s PBU

Tyree Simmons, DB, Colorado State, 70%

Mike Stevens, CB, NC State, CB, 66.7%

Heath Harding, CB, Miami OH, 66.7%

D.J. May, LB, Wyoming, 60%

Nick Nelson, DB, Hawaii, 57.1%

Jalen Davis, CB, Utah State, 50%

Anthony Makransky, DB, Wyoming, 50%

Jeremiah Harris, DL, Eastern Michigan, 50%

Brian Peavy, DB, Iowa State, 50%

Avonte Maddox, DB, Pittsburgh, 50%

Kevin Vaccaro, S, Texas, 50%

Lance Austin, DB, Georgia Tech, 50%

Anything above 35% is really strong. Again, expect regression here. Oh, and say hi to another Texas Vaccaro.

Questions

  1. Did you like seeing the defensive metrics, or are those overkill?
  2. I heard some feedback that the old layout was tough to read. Is this new wordpress theme better?
  3. Would you like access to the data set that helped generate this article? If so, you could email me at THECFX at GMAIL dot COM, or I could just set up a link with a free download. Let me know.