The College Football Market Share Report – Week 10 Recap

New week. Same great taste. We’re looking at college football’s top performers based on the percentage of their offense they are shouldering.

How you might want to interact with this article:
1) Skim the dense parts and read the summaries at the end of each section
2) Find rockstar performances and focus on those in your film-watching endeavors
3) Leave a comment so I can make this content even more beneficial to you

Let’s get to it.

Quarterbacks of the week

Luke Falk, Washington State, 92.4% of team’s offensive yards

  • 36-55, 497 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT vs Arizona State

James Summers, East Carolina, 90.9%

  • 14-22, 158 yards, 42 rush yards, 2 rush TD vs USF

DaMarcus Smith, North Texas, 88.3%

  • 25-45, 234 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 45 rush yards @ La Tech

Tanner Mangum, BYU, 86.0%

  • 23-37, 293 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT @ SJSU

Mitch Leidner, Minnesota, 85.4%

  • 27-44, 281 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT @ Ohio State

John Fadule, Boston College, 85.3%

  • 23-37, 257 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT vs NC State

Anu Solomon, Arizona, 85.0%

  • 31-46, 352 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT @ USC

Gunner Kiel, Cincinnati, 84.7%

  • 28-51, 523 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT @ Houston

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State, 82.9%

  • 16-24, 352 yards, 5 TD, 26 rush yards vs TCU

David Washington, Old Dominion, 81.6%

  • 29-48, 378 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 69 rush yards @ UTSA

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State, 81.4%

  • 27-40, 303 yards, 4 TD, 47 rush yards @ Missouri

Gunner Kiel has gone bananas in two straight games. I haven’t really watched him play yet this year, but I’ve heard some good things about him. He could be a sneaky late-climber in a potential QB class that’s grasping at straws right now… Mason Rudolph and Oklahoma State proved they were legit with a big win against TCU last weekend. That team (and I guess Ohio State) is one of the rare cases of a quarterback rotation working well on the college level. Props to Rudolph and J.W. Walsh for making that work… Boston College’s John Fadule is back for a second straight week. You’d think they would ask a freshman quarterback to do less, not more, but he’s been carrying that team lately.

Seasonal QB Leaders

Luke Falk, Washington State, 81.0% of team’s offensive yards

  • 6’4, 205lbs, Sophomore

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 76.9%

  • 6’0, 211lbs, Freshman

Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State, 76.6%

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 74.7%

  • 6’3, 227lbs, Junior

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 72.0%

  • 6’0, 219lbs, Senior

Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut, 71.6%

  • 6’2, 220lbs, Sophomore

Trevone Boykin, TCU, 71.0%

  • 6’2, 205lbs, Senior

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State, 69.4%

  • 6’2, 230lbs, Senior

Alex McGough, FIU, 69.4%

  • 6’3, 218lbs, Sophomore

Riley Neal, Ball State, 69.0%

  • 6’5, 217lbs, Freshman

Dak Prescott, your table is ready. This weekend the Mississippi State senior gets Alabama at home in what could be the culminating moment of his career and vault him into the Heisman top five. He almost perfectly fits the historical Heisman prototype for dual-threat quarterbacks… Luke Falk is having some kind of season. I haven’t run the numbers against historical Mike Leach quarterbacks, but it’s hard to imagine that anyone could have accounted for a higher percentage of the offense than Falk is this year… Even with the loss, I think Trevone Boykin still has Heisman life. He is everything for that offense.

Running Backs of the week

Ralph Webb, Vanderbilt, 67.4% of team’s offensive yards

  • 22 carries, 118 yards, 1 TD @ Florida

Paul Harris, Hawaii, 57.1%

  • 20 carries, 190 yards, 1 TD, 2 rec., 26 rec. yards @ UNLV

Larry Rose III, New Mexico State, 55.4%

  • 31 carries, 207 yards, 2 TD, 2 rec., 85 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Texas State

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 54.8%

  • 21 carries, 194 yards, 1 TD, 1 rec., 4 rec. yards @ Clemson

Devontae Booker, Utah, 49.4%

  • 34 carries, 150 yards, 1 TD, 2 rec., 21 rec. yards @ Washington

Justin Jackson, Northwestern, 49.2%

  • 28 carries, 186 yards, 1 rec., 9 rec. yards vs Penn State

Derrick Henry, Alabama, 48.4%

  • 38 carries, 210 yards, 3 TD vs LSU

Saquon Barkley (SQBK), Penn State, 47.0%

  • 25 carries, 120 yards, 2 TD, 6 rec., 50 rec. yards @ Northwestern

Jordan Howard, Indiana, 46.4%

  • 22 carries, 174 yards, 2 TD, 2 rec., 15 rec. yards vs Iowa

DeAndre Washington, Texas Tech, 43.9%

  • 21 carries, 102 yards, 6 rec., 64 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ WVU

Ralph Webb is back for the second week in a row after he single handedly carried the Vanderbilt offense to a near upset of the Gators… Justin Jackson and Derrick Henry used their massive performances over the weekend to vault into the seasonal leaderboard, which we’ll get to in a minute… Jordan Howard, a prospect I love and who is finally healthy again, had 174 rush yards against an Iowa defense that hadn’t allowed any other running back to surpass 75 yards all season.

Seasonal RB Leaders

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 42.7% of team’s offensive yards

  • 5’11, 202lbs, Sophomore

Devontae Booker, Utah, 41.9%

  • 6’1, 212lbs, Senior

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 41.8%

  • 6’1, 230lbs, Sophomore

Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 41.7%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Senior

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 40.8%

  • 5’9, 180lbs, Junior

Larry Rose III, New Mexico State, 40.5%

  • 5’11, 184lbs, Sophomore

Brian Hill, Wyoming, 40.0%

  • 6’1, 211lbs, Sophomore

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 39.3%

  • 6’0, 201lbs, Sophomore

Jahad Thomas, Temple, 36.1%

  • 5’10, 180lbs, Junior

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 35.6%

  • 5’10, 201lbs, Sophomore

Justin Jackson, Northwestern, 34.9%

  • 5’11, 190lbs, Sophomore

Derrick Henry, Alabama, 34.7%

  • 6’3, 242lbs, Junior

Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State, 34.5%

  • 6’0, 225lbs, Junior

Saquon Barkley, Penn State, 34.2%

  • 5’11, 222lbs, Freshman

What an amazing year for the running back position! This week Derrick Henry joins the mix after his breathtaking performance against LSU. It feels like the production has finally caught up with the hype and the result is a beautiful thing… Meanwhile, Leonard Fournette, for the first time since I’ve been doing this (I think), has fallen from the top spot… Dalvin Cook, Devontae Booker move up after great performances over the weekend… Saquon Barkley, man, I’m telling you. LOOK OUT!

Wide Receivers of the Week

Delane Hart-Johnson, New Mexico, 82.7%

  • 1 reception, 86 yards, 1 TD vs Utah State

Hasaan Henderson, Nevada, 66.0%

  • 5 rec., 136 yards, 1 TD @ Fresno State

Demarcus Robinson, Florida, 64.2%

  • 9 rec., 106 yards vs Vanderbilt

Al Riles, UL-Lafayette, 63.6%

  • 8 rec., 103 yards, 1 TD, 4 rush yards @ Georgia State

Jared Murphy, Miami OH, 60.7%

  • 7 rec., 91 yards, 2 TD vs Eastern Michigan

Travin Dural, LSU, 60.2%

  • 2 rec., 77 yards, 1 TD @ Alabama

Will Fuller, Notre Dame, 58.0%

  • 7 rec., 152 yards, 3 TD @ Pittsburgh

Malcolm Mitchell, Georgia, 57.8%

  • 4 rec., 52 yards vs Kentucky

Marcus Green, UL-Monroe, 56.9%

  • 12 rec., 149 yards, 1 TD, 13 ret. yards @ Troy

JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC, 56.8%

  • 8 rec., 138 yards, 1 TD vs Arizona

Demarcus Robinson is a guy I reallly liked last year in a floundering Florida offense. I thought maybe he could become Jim McElwain’s “new Rashard Higgins” this year, but it hasn’t been quite that seamless. All the same, he’s a strong player and could be a sneaky good addition to the 2016 draft class… Meanwhile, Will Fuller continues to maul defenses with no remorse. Since the start of last season, he has caught 27 of Notre Dame’s 50 touchdowns despite being just 6’0 180lbs….  Hasaan Henderson is a name to file away for later. He’s 6’5 220lbs and has 35% of Nevada’s receiving yards this season in a limited passing offense.

Service Academy footnotes: DeBrandon Sanders (Navy, 88.2%), Edgar Poe (Army, 73.3%), Garrett Brown (Air Force, 57.7%)

Seasonal WR Leaders

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 47.2% of receiving yards

  • 5’10, 175lbs, Senior

Tanner Gentry, Wyoming, 43.6%

  • 6’2, 201lbs, Junior

Leonte Carroo, Rutgers, 42.7%

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Corey Coleman, Baylor, 41.3%

  • 5’11, 190lbs, Junior

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 41.2%

  • 5’8, 185lbs, Senior

Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 41.1%

  • 6’1, 208lbs, Senior

Travin Dural, LSU, 41.0%

  • 6’2, 203lbs, Junior

Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh, 40.0%

  • 6’2, 200lbs, Junior

Daniel Braverman, Western Michigan, 40.0%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Junior

JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC, 39.8%

  • 6’2, 215lbs, Sophomore

Tajae Sharpe, UMass, 39.2%

  • 6’3, 188lbs, Senior

Corey Coleman DGAF who his quarterback is; he just keeps mauling. To see a guy rank fourth national in market share of yards AND lead the country in touchdowns is a pretty special combination…. Travin Dural hasn’t got much attention for the LSU offense this year, but he’s putting together a solid, Rueben Randle-esque college season in which he has great market share, but poor raw production. The body types are similar too… Finally, JuJu Smith-Schuster is incredible. This kid might be the single best receiver prospect in college football – yes, even above Treadwell. I think he’s deserving of finishing in the top 10 of the Heisman vote.

Service Academy footnotes: Jamir Tillman (45.5%, Navy), Garrett Brown (51.1%, Air Force), Edgar Poe (40.9%, Army)

Jerome Lane footnotes: 31.1% of Akron’s yards

Tight Ends of the week

Sam Dobbs, Vanderbilt, 70.0% of team’s receiving yards

  • 1 reception, 21 yards @ Florida

Bryce Williams, East Carolina, 53.8%

  • 6 rec., 85 yards vs USF

Kivon Cartwright, Colorado State, 46.7%

  • 4 rec., 56 yards @ Wyoming

Billy Freeman, SJSU, 45.6%

  • 6 rec., 67 yards vs BYU

Cody Tuttle, Eastern Michigan, 41.6%

  • 2 rec., 37 yards @ Miami OH

Hayden Plinke, UTEP, 36.8%

  • 9 rec., 85 yards vs Rice

Trey Scott, Tulane, 35.8%

  • 2 rec., 38 yards vs UConn

Rodney Mills, UMass, 35.8%

  • 6 rec., 62 yards vs Akron

Terry Pettis, MTSU, 35.7%

  • 5 rec., 126 yards, 1 TD vs Marshall

Deon Watson, Idaho, 34.4%

  • 7 rec., 109 yards, 2 TD @ South Alabama

Jordan Leggett, Clemson, 34%

  • 6 rec., 101 yards vs Florida State

Bryce Williams is a guy that Chris Burke singled out on last week’s On The Clock podcast, which he was kind enough to invite me to join. He hasn’t made much noise in this space, but he could be another nice piece of the 2016 class… Also, Jordan Leggett has been really good for Clemson this year. He’s got the size and production I like to see.

Seasonal TE Leaders

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 25.0% of team’s receiving yards

  • 5’11, 236lbs, Sophomore

Gerald Everett, South Alabama, 24.8%

  • 6’4, 225lbs, Junior

Rodney Mills, UMass, 24.6%

  • 6’1, 205lbs, Senior

David Morgan II, UTSA, 24.1%

  • 6’4, 260lbs, Senior

Dan Vitale, Northwestern, 23.7%

  • 6’2, 235lbs, Senior

Jake Butt, Michigan, 23.1%

  • 6’6, 248lbs, Junior

Bucky Hodges, Virginia Tech, 22.4%

  • 6’7, 241lbs, R-Sophomore

Matt Weiser, Buffalo, 21.8%

  • 6’5, 255lbs, Senior

Austin Hooper, Stanford, 21.4%

  • 6’4, 248lbs, Junior

There’s not a whole lot of shakeup in this list, but I’m starting to get excited for how good this TE draft class could be. Underclassmen like Hooper, Butt, Cam Serigne, Hodges, Hunter Henry, Jordan Leggett mixed in with senior like David Morgan and Matt Weiser could make for a fun draft class. Comparatively, tight end was really week last year.

Special Teams Studs of the week

Janarion Grant, Rutgers, WR, 237 return yards, 1 ret. TD, 3 rec., 26 rec. yards @ Michigan

Braeden West, SMU, RB, 180 ret. yards, 1 ret. TD, 1 rec., 45 rec. yards vs Temple

Aregeros Turner, Northern Illinois, WR, 168 ret. yards, 2 rec., 21 rec. yards @ Toledo

Tre Johnson, North Texas, RB, 168 ret. yards @ La Tech

KaVontae Turpin, TCU, WR, 153 ret. yards, 7 rec., 107 rec. yards, 4 rush, 22 rush yards @ Oklahoma State

Keelan Ewaliko, Hawaii, WR, 142 ret. yards @ UNLV

Xavier Johnson, South Alabama, RB, 141 ret. yards, 1 ret. TD, 9 rush., 148 rush. yards, 1 rush. TD vs Idaho

Tyrell Johnson, Arizona, WR, 139 ret. yards, 1 rec., 21 rec. yards @ USC

Jakeem Grant, Texas Tech, WR, 131 ret. yards, 5 rec., 8 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ WVU

Brisly Estime, Syracuse, WR, 130 ret. yards, 1 rec., 36 rec. yards @ Louisville

Three players return from last week: Keelan, Jakeem and Braeden. Keelan Ewaliko is interesting because he’s got more size than most return men at 5’11 200lbs. He’s listed as a receiver, but hasn’t contributed there yet… Braeden West, like Jakeem Grant, is a really small human being, especially for being a running back, but he certainly filled up the box score last week… KaVontae Turpin looks to be the only Horned Frog who enjoyed his trip to Stillwater.

Seasonal Special Teams Leaders

Janarion Grant, Rutgers, WR, 97.5% of team’s return yards

  • 5’11, 170lbs, Junior

Kylen Towner, Western Kentucky, WR, 92.6%

  • 5’8, 175lbs, Sophomore

Tyler Ervin, SJSU, RB, 90.6%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Senior

Bishop Louie, Tulsa, WR, 88.1%

  • 5’10, 170lbs, Sophomore

Maurice Thomas, Miami OH, RB, 88.1%

  • 5’11, 176lb, Freshman

Brisly Estime, Syracuse, WR, 87.9%

  • 5’9, 178lbs, Junior

Jakeem Grant, Texas Tech, WR, 85.7%

  • 5’7, 168lbs, Senior

Teddy Ruben, Troy, WR, 85.6%

  • 5’7, 161lbs, Senior

KaVontae Turpin, TCU, WR, 84.6%

  • 5’9, 152lbs, Freshman

Derek Keaton, Georgia Southern, WR, 83.1%

  • 5’11, 185lbs, Senior

I mixed this one up this week. I had been tracking raw yardage production (toward the goal of finding hidden value), but decided to switch to market share to see who were the true return maestros. The two names that really stand out are Tyler Ervin, who is fourth in this category and fourth in the seasonal running back category. That dude does everything for SJSU… Also, Jakeem Grant is super small, but he’s awesome in all the ways you’d hope for him to be. Athleticism is going to be huge for him when we get to draft season.

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The College Football Market Share Report – Week 9 Recap

You know the drill. We’re looking at which players account for the highest percent of their team’s offense in various categories.

How you might want to interact with this article:
1) Skim the dense parts and read the summaries at the end of each section
2) Find rockstar performances and focus on those in your film-watching endeavors
3) Leave a comment so I can make this content even more beneficial to you

Let’s get to it.

Quarterbacks of the week

Deshone Kizer, Notre Dame, 94.6% of team’s offensive yards

  • 23 – 36, 299 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 143 rush yards, 2 rush TD @ Temple

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 93.2%

  • 23 – 37, 226 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 21 rush yards @ Akron

John Fadule, Boston College, 89.9%

  • 8 – 20, 143 yards, 1 INT, 53 rush yards vs Virginia Tech

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 87.4%

  • 16 – 35, 265 yards, 3 TD, 33 rush yards @ Louisiana-Lafayette

Thomas Woodson, Akron, 84.5%

  • 22 – 36, 252 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT vs Central Michigan

Quinton Flowers, South Florida, 82.6%

  • 12 – 20, 208 yards, 15 rush yards @ Navy

Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech, 81.9%

  • 38 – 55, 480 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT, 46 rush yards, 1 rush TD vs OK State

Chase Litton, Marshall, 78.9%

  • 33 – 48, 486 yards, 2 TD, 11 rush yards @ Charlotte

Luke Falk, Washington State, 78.5%

  • 35 – 63, 354 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT vs Stanford

Nick Mitchell, Oregon State, 78.2%

  • 19 – 35, 204 yards, 1 TD, 40 rush yards @ Utah

In a primetime game where his opponent was dead set on stopping the running attack, Notre Dame’s Deshone Kizer was brilliant against Temple. Without looking, I can’t recall (m)any other major program quarterbacks accounting for such a high percentage of their offense in a single game… Patrick Mahomes and that Texas Tech offense are so much fun. He’s AVERAGING more than 400 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns per game… What could have been for Luke Falk? I expected his Wazzu team to be outmanned by Stanford, but ultimately it was their red zone futility on offense that cost them, kicking six field goals and ultimately losing by two points.

Seasonal QB Leaders

Luke Falk, Washington State, 79.5% of team’s offensive yards

  • 6’4, 205lbs, Sophomore

Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State, 76.8%

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 76.7%

  • 6’0, 211lbs, Freshman

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 74.7%

  • 6’3, 227lbs, Junior

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 73.3%

  • 6’0, 219lbs, Senior

Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut, 71.6%

  • 6’2, 220lbs, Sophomore

Trevone Boykin, TCU, 70.0%

  • 6’2, 205lbs, Senior

Alex McGough, FIU, 69.4%

  • 6’3, 218lbs, Sophomore

Jeff Driskel, Louisiana Tech, 69.2%

  • 6’4, 231lbs, Senior

Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky, 68.9%

  • 6’3, 220lbs, Senior

Trevone Boykin is incredible. Last week, for the third straight game, he lead the team in passing AND rushing. He almost perfectly fits the historical Heisman prototype for dual-threat quarterbacks… Jeff Driskel is an interesting case. Once upon a time he was the #1 quarterback recruit in America and lead the 2012 Florida Gators to the Sugar Bowl. Now at Louisiana Tech, he has the size and production to make a push into the back half of the NFL Draft.

Running Backs of the week

Brian Hill, Wyoming, 56.9% of team’s offensive yards

  • 26 carries, 201 yards, 1 TD @ Utah State

Ralph Webb, Vanderbilt, 55.1%

  • 26 carries, 99 yards, 3 rec. yards @ Houston

Arkeel Newsome, Connecticut, 54.5%

  • 25 carries, 179 yards, 2 TD, 41 rec. yards, 24 ret. yards vs ECU

Dontrell Hilliard, Tulane, 48.1%

  • 19 carries, 97 yards, 2 TD, 33 rec. yards @ Memphis

Alex Gardner, FIU, 45.8%

  • 20 carries, 105 yards, 15 rec. yards @ Florida Atlantic

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 44.2%

  • 26 carries, 136 yards, 15 rec. yards vs Western Kentucky

Elijhaa Penny, Idaho, 43.9%

  • 35 carries, 192 yards, 2 TD, 58 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ NMSU

Josh Hicks, Rutgers, 43.6%

  • 15 carries, 72 yards @ Wisconsin

Robert Lowe, Texas State, 43.2%

  • 20 carries, 91 yards @ Georgia Southern

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 42.6%

  • 22 carries, 107 yards, 26 rec. yards, 3 ret. yards @ Wash State

This is the second straight appearance for Texas State’s Robert Lowe. The 5’10 195lb senior could be an interesting name in draft season… Elijhaa Penny is exactly the type of player I’m trying to find with this exercise. The 6’2 234lb senior has 17 touchdowns in the last season and a half and could be a sneaky prospect… Brian Hill just posted his third 200 yard game of the season. He and Leonard Fournette are the only players in the country to accomplish that feat.

Seasonal RB Leaders

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 43.2% of team’s offensive yards

  • 6’1, 230lbs, Sophomore

Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 42.3%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Senior

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 41.3%

  • 5’11, 202lbs, Sophomore

Devontae Booker, Utah, 41.0%

  • 6’1, 212lbs, Senior

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 40.8%

  • 5’9, 180lbs, Junior

Jahad Thomas, Temple, 40.8%

  • 5’10, 180lbs, Junior

Brian Hill, Wyoming, 40.2%

  • 6’1, 211lbs, Sophomore

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 39.2%

  • 6’0, 201lbs, Sophomore

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 38.6%

  • 5’10, 201lbs, Sophomore

Larry Rose III, New Mexico State, 38.1%

  • 5’11, 184lbs, Sophomore

Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State, 34.7%

  • 6’0, 225lbs, Junior

Leonard Fournette, your table is ready. It should be fascinating to see him go up against Alabama this weekend… I got asked about Donnel Pumphrey on the Sports Illustrated NFL Draft podcast this week. Be sure to check that out for my discussion with Chris Burke on the SDSU runner… Even though he was on a bye last week, Ezekiel Elliott’s Heisman chances got a boost with another change to his quarterback situation. In what has become a surprisingly turbulent season for the OSU offense, Elliott has been the one consistent force.

Wide Receivers of the Week

Jamal Robinson, Louisiana-Lafayette, 84.4% of team’s receiving yards

  • 4 receptions, 92 yards, 1 TD vs Louisiana-Monroe

Latevius Rayford, Vanderbilt, 84.1%

  • 3 rec., 37 yards @ Houston

Antonio Callaway, Florida, 71.0%

  • 3 rec., 110 yards, 1 TD vs Georgia

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 69.2%

  • 6 rec., 72 yards vs UTSA

Ryan Longoria, Georgia Southern, 67.7%

  • 2 rec., 21 yards vs Texas State

Justin Hobbs, Tulsa, 62.5%

  • 7 rec., 150 yards @ SMU

Isaiah Jones, East Carolina, 62%

  • 9 rec., 85 yards @ UConn

Carlton Agudosi, Rutgers, 59.8%

  • 1 rec, 49 yards @ Wisconsin

Tre’Quan Smith, UCF, 58.4%

  • 5 rec., 59 yards @ Cincinnati

KeVonn Mabon, Ball State, 54.5%

  • 6 rec., 150 yards vs UMass

Travis Rudolph, Florida State, 54%

  • 5 rec,. 191 yards, 3 TD vs Syracuse

KeVonn Mabon showed up in this space recently for his outstanding special teams performance and this week he had a big receiving game. Only a junior, Mabon’s 6’1 219lb frame and intriguing playmaking ability have put him on my radar… Florida State’s Travis Rudolph was the #1 receiver recruit in 2014. Interestingly, it took the backup quarterback to get him going. The Noles desperately need someone to take pressure off Dalvin Cook, if they are to beat Clemson; Rudolph could be arriving at the right time.

Seasonal WR Leaders

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 47.2% of receiving yards

  • 5’10, 175lbs, Senior

Tanner Gentry, Wyoming, 43.6%

  • 6’2, 201lbs, Junior

Daniel Braverman, Western Michigan, 43.2%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Junior

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 42.8%

  • 5’8, 185lbs, Senior

Leonte Carroo, Rutgers, 42.7%

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Pharoh Cooper, South Carolina, 40.9%

  • 5’11, 207lbs, Junior

Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh, 40.4%

  • 6’2, 200lbs, Junior

Josh Doctson, TCU, 40.1%

  • 6’3, 195lbs, Senior

Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 40.1%

  • 6’1, 208lbs, Senior

Tajae Sharpe, UMass, 39.8%

  • 6’3, 188lbs, Senior

Corey Coleman, Baylor, 39.5%

  • 5’11, 190lbs, Junior

It’s funny how things work themselves out over time. As far as I can tell, the seven guys from Carroo down are among the 10 best wide receiver prospects eligible for the 2016 NFL Draft.

Service Academy footnotes: Jamir Tillman (55.2%, Navy), Garrett Brown (49.7%, Air Force)

Jerome Lane footnotes: 31.0% of Akron’s yards

Tight Ends of the week

Akil Dan-Fodio, FIU, 36.2% of receiving yards

  • 4 receptions, 71 yards @ Florida Atlantic

Brandon Lingen, Minnesota, 35%

  • 5 rec., 111 yards vs Michigan

David Grinnage, NC State, 32.3%

  • 7 rec., 82 yards, 1 TD vs Clemson

Ryan Carden, Texas State, 31%

  • 5 rec., 27 yards @ Georgia Southern

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 29.1%

  • 8 rec., 74 yards, 1 TD, 6 rush 65 rush yards, 1 rush TD vs Clemson

Evan Butts, Virginia, 27.4%

  • 4 rec., 48 yards vs Georgia Tech

Josh Parris, Syracuse, 26.9%

  • 4 rec., 35 yards vs Florida State

Andrew Beck, Texas, 25.9%

  • 1 rec., 22 yards @ Iowa State

Troy Fumagli, Wisconsin, 25.3%

  • 3 rec,. 55 yards vs Rutgers

Trent “Buck” Cowan, Idaho, 24.1%

  • 3 rec., 74 yards @ NMSU

Jake Butt, Michigan, 22.5%

  • 4 rec, 38 yards @ Minnesota

Buck Cowan makes his second-straight appearance here. More of an oversized receiver than a tight end, the junior combines with WR Dezmon Epps, RB Elijhaa Penny and QB Matt Linehan to form a solid core of skill players for the Vandals. Too bad they’re unlikely to miss a bowl, or it could be fun to see them go against a bigger program… Jake Butt continues to be solid in the receiving game, but allergic to the end zone. How does such a good player have only one touchdown this season?… NC State’s David Grinnage is a guy I wrote about last December as a potentially interesting prospect. This is the first game in 2015 in which he’s caught multiple passes or found the end zone. At 6’5 265lbs, he has a lot of promise, but not much production at this point.

Seasonal TE Leaders

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 25.9% of team’s receiving yards

  • 5’11, 236lbs, Sophomore

David Morgan II, UTSA, 24.8%

  • 6’4, 260lbs, Senior

Gerald Everett, South Alabama, 24.5%

  • 6’4, 225lbs, Junior

Dan Vitale, Northwestern, 23.7%

  • 6’2, 235lbs, Senior

Rodney Mills, UMass, 23.3%

  • 6’1, 205lbs, Senior

Bucky Hodges, Virginia Tech, 22.4%

  • 6’7, 241lbs, R-Sophomore

Jake Butt, Michigan, 21.5%

  • 6’6, 248lbs, Junior

Matt Weiser, Buffalo, 21.3%

  • 6’5, 255lbs, Senior

Reece White, New Mexico, 20.4%

  • 6’1, 225lbs, Senior

Austin Hooper, Stanford, 20.1%

  • 6’4, 248lbs, Junior

Cam Serigne, Wake Forest, 20.2%

  • 6’3, 245lbs, Sophomore

Similar to the wide receiver position, it’s fun to see many of the tight ends who were thought were the best coming into the season actually rise to the top. I’m looking at you Austin Hooper, Jake Butt, Cam Serigne, and Bucky Hodges.

Special Teams Studs of the week

Keelan Ewaliko, Hawaii, WR, 212 return yards, 1 TD vs Air Force

Charles Nelson, Oregon, WR, 185 ret. yards, 1 TD @ Arizona state

Marquan Greene, Georgia State, WR, 169 ret. yards, 1 TD @ Arkansas State

Jakeem Grant, Texas Tech, WR, 177 ret. yards, 1 TD, 13 rec., 178 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Oklahoma State

Derek Keaton, Georgia Southern, WR, 144 ret. yards @ Navy

Rodney Adams, South Florida, WR, 139 ret. yards, 1 TD, 3 rec., 86 rec. yards

Nyheim Hines, NC State, WR, 135 ret. yards, 1 TD, 2 rec., 26 rec. yards vs Clemson

Blake Banham, Eastern Michigan, RB, 135 ret. yards vs Western Michigan

Marques Little, Old Dominion, WR, 130 ret. yards, 21 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD, 14 rush yards vs Western Kentucky

Braeden West, SMU, RB, 111 ret. yards, 11 rush yards vs Tulsa

Jakeem Grant is here again. Even though he’s miniature, he is exactly the reason we pay attention to special teams: because there is hidden value in finding dynamic all-purpose players.

Seasonal Special Teams Leaders

Janarion Grant, WR, Rutgers, 89.0 return yds/g

  • 5’11, 170lbs, Junior

Brett Winnegan, RB, UTSA, 87.6

  • 5’9, 185lbs, Freshman

Brisly Estime, WR, Syracuse, 82.5

  • 5’9, 178lbs, Junior

Jakeem Grant, WR, Texas Tech, 80.9

  • 5’7, 168lbs, Senior

Tim White, WR, Arizona State, 80.9

  • 5’11, 185lbs, Junior

Maurice Thomas, RB, Miami OH, 78.2

  • 5’11, 176lb, Freshman

Derek Keaton, Georgia Southern, 78.0

  • 5’11, 185lbs, Senior

Devin Fuller, WR, UCLA, 77.4

  • 6’0, 200lbs Senior

Nyheim Hines, WR, NC State, 75.1

  • 5’9, 190lbs, Freshman

Diontae Johnson, WR, Toledo, 74.2

  • 5’11, 175lbs, Freshman

Again with Jakeem Grant… I wonder if he’s related to Janarion Grant?

College Football DFS Diary – September 3 2015

¨Merry Christmas, Carl!

– Frank W. Abignale Jr. in Catch Me If You Can, one of my all-time favorite movies

What a day! College Football is back… and I´m in Argentina where I probably will get to watch zero of it. We´ll see though.

In celebration of the day and my committment to expanding into the college football DFS world, I´m submitting this as entry #1 of my college football DFS diary. Inspired by the transparency of some of the professional podcasters I´ve been listening to, who literally publish a monthly report with full detail of their financial matters, I´m keeping this log to document the plays I make, why I make them and the financial outcomes that follow.

Because times are little tight after four months of travel without a source of income (except for a Gus Johnson article), I´m starting the season with $100 in my CFB budget. FYI, I´ll be doing this same thing for NFL, also with $100. I hope that the relatively small numbers that ensue won´t dissuade you from engaging with me in the process of weekly improvement.

Speaking of finances, one of the key themes that comes up over and over again in DFS, poker, sports betting and life (but under the name ¨budget¨) is bankroll management. In episode 10 of Rotoviz Radio the Millionaire Maker winner Drew Dinkmeyer outlined his strategy for management which goes something like this…

play 10% of your bankroll each week

of that amount, put 70% into 50-50s…

20% into multipliers…

and 10% into tournaments.

As tempting as it´s going to be to break that rule and swing for the fences, I´m committing to the process to see how I can grow my bankroll throughout the season. If I´m being honest with myself, I know that downside management is as important as upside potential.

With that said, here´s a snapshot of my week one budget (I know a colon should go right here, but the puncuation is different on a Spanish-language keyboard, so just be patient with me. Thanks.)

Week 1 Allocation – $10

Tournaments – $1

Multipliers – $2

50-50s – $7

All of these contests are being played at DraftKings, which has become my preferred platform in recent years. If you want to support my work and get a sign-up bonus, join DraftKings through this link.

None of this should be construed as advice for how to build your DFS teams. The intentions of this recurring blog are to document my plays & processes ahead of time so that I can learn from them each week and grow as a player.

Tournaments

Today´s Allocation of Weekly Budget – $0.25 ($0.75 on Saturday)

rsz_cfx_tourney_sep_3

QB
The three teams expected to score the most points tonight are Arizona (Anu Solomon), Oklahoma State (Mason Rudolph) and TCU (Trevone Boykin). I´m staying away from Anu in tournaments because Arizona is expected to score 70% of the points in that game, which could mean an early exit for such a valuable player. For OK State, I´ll get my exposure to them in the run game, but don´t want Rudolph because of the strong possibility of rain. Finally, Boykin is such a household name that I feel many people will take him and I need to create separation in a tournament setting.

The first QB I selected was Connor Mitch from South Carolina, which is expected to be the fourth-highest scoring team of the night. Playing in good weather conditions against a North Carolina team that ranks as Phil Steele´s fourth worst DLine in the ACC, worst LB core and fifth-worst DBs, I´ll take my chance on Mitch to have a solid debut.

From here, there´s a strong cluster of team point totals in the 29-32 range including…

WKU, who is possibly without their top returning receiver and, I think, will not possess the ball that much

Ohio, who I expect to run the ball a ton, but more on that in a minute

UNC, while I like Marquise Williams, I don´t like the matchup against SC and I feel his premium price will be constraining

Vandy, who I expect to run the ball a ton, but more on that in a minute

UCF, strong possibility of rain

Duke, which is where I´ll pull my second QB, Thomas Sirk. Last year Sirk was a dual-threat, redzone specialist QB who inherits the full time job this year. His matchup is relatively favorable as a Power 5 QB taking on a smaller conference defense, albeit on the road (in a dome). Also, I´m a little more comfortable with him being a ¨new starter¨since he has seen adequate game action in the past.

RB
Oklahoma State has the second-highest team total of the night, but the weather in Mt. Pleasant calls for a 48% chance of rain, so I´m thinking that the passing game will suffer a bit. Moreover, it has been my observation that in early season Power 5 vs. small conference games, the line play is where the difference shows up. Chris Carson is a highly touted JUCO transfer and I´m going to lean on him to breakthrough in his debut. I was tempted to play Rennie Childs, who is his backup and may thrive in mop up duty.

Vanderbilt, which I mentioned a minute ago, has a new OC that is expected to heavily feature the RB. Ralph Webb is clearly that guy and I expect him to have a strong night as Vandy attempts to assert themselves in a new regime and keep the ball away from a strong WKU offense.

WR
For the tournament setting, I wanted to stack my quarterbacks with wide receivers from their team. For South Carolina, I was tempted to go with Pharoh Cooper, but his premium price would have created constraints elsewhere. Instead I picked Deebo Samuel, who is the #2 option and should benefit from UNC´s efforts to slow his dynamic counterpart, Cooper.

With Duke, they appear to be operating with two established receivers Johnell Barnes and Max McCaffrey – and many question marks behind them. In this instance, I opted for Max McCaffrey who is $500 cheaper, more experienced and bigger. Maybe those are trivial, but in a situation where it´s not obvious that one is preferred, why not take the guy that has those things going for him?

My third WR, who I was put onto by Dan Hindery, is David Ungerer from Idaho. Ungerer has a minimum salary (at this point I have $9,700 left and one WR position and one Flex to fill) and is expected to be one Idaho´s favorite pass catchers in the game. He has drawn positive reviews all summer for his mental and physical maturation and was trusted by the coaching staff last year to be their top punt returner as a freshman. I´ll kick the tires.

FLEX
Last year Ohio ran the ball 47 times in their game vs. Idaho to the tune of 5+ yards per carry. According to Phil Steele, Ohio has the third-best OLine in the MAC, compared to Idaho having the third-worst DLine in the Sun Belt. With the sixth-highest team total of the night, in what should be a relatively close game, I´m happy to bet on A.J. Oullette to get plenty of touches. I also like that this is probably the most obscure game of the night.

The last roster spot I filled was with William Stanback from UCF, whose game I have written about before, and who is expected to receive the lion´s share of carries for a run-heavy team. With rain in the forecast and 29 points expected for his team, it wouldn´t surprise me if Stanback found the end zone multiple times.

Multipliers

Today´s Allocation of Weekly Budget – $1 ($1 on Saturday)

rsz_cfx_triple_up_sep_3

QB
For the same reasons as before, I went with Connor Mitch, but this time I paired him with Marquise Williams, who he´ll be playing against tonight. Of the five passers priced over $8,000, Williams is the one for whom I´m most willing to pay. The idea here is that I´ve got a little higher floor than the tournament lineup, but still some nice upside for my money, especially if this game turns into a back-and-forth contest.

RB
Again, I´m rolling with Ralph Webb, but this time pairing him with Michigan´s De´Veon Smith, who will be the starter tonight against Utah. While I don´t love the matchup, I expect the game to a slug fest with a heavy dose of running, which I think bodes well for Smith.

WR
Deebo Samuel is again my pairing with Connor Mitch, but this time it´s more forced due to budget constraints from the Marquise Williams expenditure. Speaking of Williams, I´m pairing him with Ryan Switzer, who is the second most expensive Tar Heel, but one who I slightly prefer due to his utilization and the PPR scoring. At this point I´m getting pretty tight on my budget and WKU´s Antwane Grant could be a great value, especially if top returning receiver Jared Dangerfield misses the game.

FLEX
As I previously mentioned, I´m intrigued by the OK State run game tonight, but this time I roll with Rennie Childs, who could easily get as many touches as Chris Carson, but comes at a discounted price. Finally, Ty Slanina offers some exposure to the TCU pass game as their slot receiver. Until a usage pattern becomes more established for this season, I don´t see a reason why, on this night, Slanina couldn´t be the team´s leading receiver, but comes at the third-highest price point.

50-50s

Today´s Allocation of Weekly Budget – $3 ($4 on Saturday)

Lineup 1

rsz_cfx_5050_one

Shifting to a mindset of higher-floor players, I started this off with Marquise Williams at QB because of his dual threat ability. RB Aaron Green followed, as he´s a way to get exposure to the TCU offense without having to guess on receivers, or pay top dollar for Trevone Boykin. Then, Ralph Webb, because I just can´t get away from the idea that tonight is an ¨attitude game¨ for a veteran Vandy line/team after a tough 2014. Thomas Sirk again shows up as I like his dual-threat ability. Looking for a little volatility, I added pass catchers for both QBs in the form of Johnell Barnes (Duke) and Ryan Switzer (UNC). RB De´Veon Smith again makes an appearance as, what looks to be, a cheap source of touches. At this point, I have $7,300 left and two spots to fill. I fall back on David Ungerer (this dude is going to kill me or make me look awesome) because he´s cheap and should get targets in a reasonably competitive, indoor game. Finally, with $4,200 left I went with tight end phenom, Jonnu Smith. FIU is only expected to score 16 points as a team, but I feel like Jonnu is probably the best bet to score a touchdown from that offense and should receive ample targets.

Lineup 2

rsz_1cfx_5050_two

With the highest team total of the night, I couldn´t help but get a share of Anu Solomon from Arizona. Here´s hoping that game doesn´t get ugly early leading to him playing for only a half. The RB tandem is the same as before, as are pass catchers Ungerer and Jonnu. As I mentioned before, Antwane Grant should be a solid play either way, but with even more upside if Dangerfield is out. The final three spots I filled were with Tanner Lee, a second year QB from Tulane, who was about as cheap as I could get. That´s what I get for spending elsewhere. Then, I really wanted to get A.J. Ouellette in my lineup again, as I like his floor. Finally, for some UNC passing game exposure, I added WR Mack Hollins.

Lineup 3

rsz_cfx_5050_three

Realizing that I still haven´t touched two of the marquee players on the board, I started this lineup off with Trevone Boykin and Devontae Booker. Because I´m overloaded with Ralph Webb, I got away from him here in favor of AJ Ouellette. Three players in and I´m already feeling crunched on my budget. I immediately went with Grant, Jonnu and Ungerer since I like them all okay and knew they could cheaply get me to my flex spots. Kolby Listenbee provided some upside volatility paired with Boykin. Finally, De´Veon Smith was a good option for the remaining dollars I had.

One last thing

Because I had some change left in my account for whatever reason, I entered the following lineup into a Millionaire Maker sattelite tournament for $0.25 as well as a free roll game. I think I´ve covered all the players at this point, except for maybe Cayleb Jones, who is Arizona´s top target and would seem like the best candidate to blow up in an Anu Solomon stack.

(I just realized that I said in the intro that I was going to avoid Anu in tournaments. I made this lineup before I wrote that and don´t feel like changing things at this point).

rsz_cfx_free_roll

Total Shares of Players (6 possible lineups)

QB
Thomas Sirk – 3

Connor Mitch – 2

Marquise Williams – 2

Anu Solomon – 2

Tanner Lee – 2

Trevone Boykin – 1

RB
Ralph Webb – 5

A.J. Oullette – 3

De´Veon Smith – 3

Aaron Green – 3

Chris Carson – 1

William Stanback – 1

Rennie Childs – 1

Devontae Booker – 1

WR
David Ungerer –  5

Antwane Grant – 4

Ryan Switzer – 3

Jonnu Smith – 3

Max McCaffrey – 2

Deebo Samuel – 2

Ty Slanina – 1

Johnell Barnes – 1

Mack Hollins – 1

Kolby Listenbee – 1

Cayleb Jones – 1

Alright, so now here is the fun part… you get to tell me where you agree or disagree with my thought process, player selection, etc., so go ahead and leave a comment.


Jon Moore is a contributor at RotoViz and a cohost of Rotoviz Radio – A Fantasy Football Podcast.  Continue this conversation with him on TwitterGoogle+ or Facebook.