The College Football Market Share Report – Week 10 Recap

New week. Same great taste. We’re looking at college football’s top performers based on the percentage of their offense they are shouldering.

How you might want to interact with this article:
1) Skim the dense parts and read the summaries at the end of each section
2) Find rockstar performances and focus on those in your film-watching endeavors
3) Leave a comment so I can make this content even more beneficial to you

Let’s get to it.

Quarterbacks of the week

Luke Falk, Washington State, 92.4% of team’s offensive yards

  • 36-55, 497 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT vs Arizona State

James Summers, East Carolina, 90.9%

  • 14-22, 158 yards, 42 rush yards, 2 rush TD vs USF

DaMarcus Smith, North Texas, 88.3%

  • 25-45, 234 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 45 rush yards @ La Tech

Tanner Mangum, BYU, 86.0%

  • 23-37, 293 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT @ SJSU

Mitch Leidner, Minnesota, 85.4%

  • 27-44, 281 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT @ Ohio State

John Fadule, Boston College, 85.3%

  • 23-37, 257 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT vs NC State

Anu Solomon, Arizona, 85.0%

  • 31-46, 352 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT @ USC

Gunner Kiel, Cincinnati, 84.7%

  • 28-51, 523 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT @ Houston

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State, 82.9%

  • 16-24, 352 yards, 5 TD, 26 rush yards vs TCU

David Washington, Old Dominion, 81.6%

  • 29-48, 378 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 69 rush yards @ UTSA

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State, 81.4%

  • 27-40, 303 yards, 4 TD, 47 rush yards @ Missouri

Gunner Kiel has gone bananas in two straight games. I haven’t really watched him play yet this year, but I’ve heard some good things about him. He could be a sneaky late-climber in a potential QB class that’s grasping at straws right now… Mason Rudolph and Oklahoma State proved they were legit with a big win against TCU last weekend. That team (and I guess Ohio State) is one of the rare cases of a quarterback rotation working well on the college level. Props to Rudolph and J.W. Walsh for making that work… Boston College’s John Fadule is back for a second straight week. You’d think they would ask a freshman quarterback to do less, not more, but he’s been carrying that team lately.

Seasonal QB Leaders

Luke Falk, Washington State, 81.0% of team’s offensive yards

  • 6’4, 205lbs, Sophomore

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 76.9%

  • 6’0, 211lbs, Freshman

Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State, 76.6%

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 74.7%

  • 6’3, 227lbs, Junior

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 72.0%

  • 6’0, 219lbs, Senior

Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut, 71.6%

  • 6’2, 220lbs, Sophomore

Trevone Boykin, TCU, 71.0%

  • 6’2, 205lbs, Senior

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State, 69.4%

  • 6’2, 230lbs, Senior

Alex McGough, FIU, 69.4%

  • 6’3, 218lbs, Sophomore

Riley Neal, Ball State, 69.0%

  • 6’5, 217lbs, Freshman

Dak Prescott, your table is ready. This weekend the Mississippi State senior gets Alabama at home in what could be the culminating moment of his career and vault him into the Heisman top five. He almost perfectly fits the historical Heisman prototype for dual-threat quarterbacks… Luke Falk is having some kind of season. I haven’t run the numbers against historical Mike Leach quarterbacks, but it’s hard to imagine that anyone could have accounted for a higher percentage of the offense than Falk is this year… Even with the loss, I think Trevone Boykin still has Heisman life. He is everything for that offense.

Running Backs of the week

Ralph Webb, Vanderbilt, 67.4% of team’s offensive yards

  • 22 carries, 118 yards, 1 TD @ Florida

Paul Harris, Hawaii, 57.1%

  • 20 carries, 190 yards, 1 TD, 2 rec., 26 rec. yards @ UNLV

Larry Rose III, New Mexico State, 55.4%

  • 31 carries, 207 yards, 2 TD, 2 rec., 85 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Texas State

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 54.8%

  • 21 carries, 194 yards, 1 TD, 1 rec., 4 rec. yards @ Clemson

Devontae Booker, Utah, 49.4%

  • 34 carries, 150 yards, 1 TD, 2 rec., 21 rec. yards @ Washington

Justin Jackson, Northwestern, 49.2%

  • 28 carries, 186 yards, 1 rec., 9 rec. yards vs Penn State

Derrick Henry, Alabama, 48.4%

  • 38 carries, 210 yards, 3 TD vs LSU

Saquon Barkley (SQBK), Penn State, 47.0%

  • 25 carries, 120 yards, 2 TD, 6 rec., 50 rec. yards @ Northwestern

Jordan Howard, Indiana, 46.4%

  • 22 carries, 174 yards, 2 TD, 2 rec., 15 rec. yards vs Iowa

DeAndre Washington, Texas Tech, 43.9%

  • 21 carries, 102 yards, 6 rec., 64 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ WVU

Ralph Webb is back for the second week in a row after he single handedly carried the Vanderbilt offense to a near upset of the Gators… Justin Jackson and Derrick Henry used their massive performances over the weekend to vault into the seasonal leaderboard, which we’ll get to in a minute… Jordan Howard, a prospect I love and who is finally healthy again, had 174 rush yards against an Iowa defense that hadn’t allowed any other running back to surpass 75 yards all season.

Seasonal RB Leaders

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 42.7% of team’s offensive yards

  • 5’11, 202lbs, Sophomore

Devontae Booker, Utah, 41.9%

  • 6’1, 212lbs, Senior

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 41.8%

  • 6’1, 230lbs, Sophomore

Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 41.7%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Senior

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 40.8%

  • 5’9, 180lbs, Junior

Larry Rose III, New Mexico State, 40.5%

  • 5’11, 184lbs, Sophomore

Brian Hill, Wyoming, 40.0%

  • 6’1, 211lbs, Sophomore

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 39.3%

  • 6’0, 201lbs, Sophomore

Jahad Thomas, Temple, 36.1%

  • 5’10, 180lbs, Junior

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 35.6%

  • 5’10, 201lbs, Sophomore

Justin Jackson, Northwestern, 34.9%

  • 5’11, 190lbs, Sophomore

Derrick Henry, Alabama, 34.7%

  • 6’3, 242lbs, Junior

Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State, 34.5%

  • 6’0, 225lbs, Junior

Saquon Barkley, Penn State, 34.2%

  • 5’11, 222lbs, Freshman

What an amazing year for the running back position! This week Derrick Henry joins the mix after his breathtaking performance against LSU. It feels like the production has finally caught up with the hype and the result is a beautiful thing… Meanwhile, Leonard Fournette, for the first time since I’ve been doing this (I think), has fallen from the top spot… Dalvin Cook, Devontae Booker move up after great performances over the weekend… Saquon Barkley, man, I’m telling you. LOOK OUT!

Wide Receivers of the Week

Delane Hart-Johnson, New Mexico, 82.7%

  • 1 reception, 86 yards, 1 TD vs Utah State

Hasaan Henderson, Nevada, 66.0%

  • 5 rec., 136 yards, 1 TD @ Fresno State

Demarcus Robinson, Florida, 64.2%

  • 9 rec., 106 yards vs Vanderbilt

Al Riles, UL-Lafayette, 63.6%

  • 8 rec., 103 yards, 1 TD, 4 rush yards @ Georgia State

Jared Murphy, Miami OH, 60.7%

  • 7 rec., 91 yards, 2 TD vs Eastern Michigan

Travin Dural, LSU, 60.2%

  • 2 rec., 77 yards, 1 TD @ Alabama

Will Fuller, Notre Dame, 58.0%

  • 7 rec., 152 yards, 3 TD @ Pittsburgh

Malcolm Mitchell, Georgia, 57.8%

  • 4 rec., 52 yards vs Kentucky

Marcus Green, UL-Monroe, 56.9%

  • 12 rec., 149 yards, 1 TD, 13 ret. yards @ Troy

JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC, 56.8%

  • 8 rec., 138 yards, 1 TD vs Arizona

Demarcus Robinson is a guy I reallly liked last year in a floundering Florida offense. I thought maybe he could become Jim McElwain’s “new Rashard Higgins” this year, but it hasn’t been quite that seamless. All the same, he’s a strong player and could be a sneaky good addition to the 2016 draft class… Meanwhile, Will Fuller continues to maul defenses with no remorse. Since the start of last season, he has caught 27 of Notre Dame’s 50 touchdowns despite being just 6’0 180lbs….  Hasaan Henderson is a name to file away for later. He’s 6’5 220lbs and has 35% of Nevada’s receiving yards this season in a limited passing offense.

Service Academy footnotes: DeBrandon Sanders (Navy, 88.2%), Edgar Poe (Army, 73.3%), Garrett Brown (Air Force, 57.7%)

Seasonal WR Leaders

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 47.2% of receiving yards

  • 5’10, 175lbs, Senior

Tanner Gentry, Wyoming, 43.6%

  • 6’2, 201lbs, Junior

Leonte Carroo, Rutgers, 42.7%

  • 6’1, 215lbs, Senior

Corey Coleman, Baylor, 41.3%

  • 5’11, 190lbs, Junior

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 41.2%

  • 5’8, 185lbs, Senior

Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 41.1%

  • 6’1, 208lbs, Senior

Travin Dural, LSU, 41.0%

  • 6’2, 203lbs, Junior

Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh, 40.0%

  • 6’2, 200lbs, Junior

Daniel Braverman, Western Michigan, 40.0%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Junior

JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC, 39.8%

  • 6’2, 215lbs, Sophomore

Tajae Sharpe, UMass, 39.2%

  • 6’3, 188lbs, Senior

Corey Coleman DGAF who his quarterback is; he just keeps mauling. To see a guy rank fourth national in market share of yards AND lead the country in touchdowns is a pretty special combination…. Travin Dural hasn’t got much attention for the LSU offense this year, but he’s putting together a solid, Rueben Randle-esque college season in which he has great market share, but poor raw production. The body types are similar too… Finally, JuJu Smith-Schuster is incredible. This kid might be the single best receiver prospect in college football – yes, even above Treadwell. I think he’s deserving of finishing in the top 10 of the Heisman vote.

Service Academy footnotes: Jamir Tillman (45.5%, Navy), Garrett Brown (51.1%, Air Force), Edgar Poe (40.9%, Army)

Jerome Lane footnotes: 31.1% of Akron’s yards

Tight Ends of the week

Sam Dobbs, Vanderbilt, 70.0% of team’s receiving yards

  • 1 reception, 21 yards @ Florida

Bryce Williams, East Carolina, 53.8%

  • 6 rec., 85 yards vs USF

Kivon Cartwright, Colorado State, 46.7%

  • 4 rec., 56 yards @ Wyoming

Billy Freeman, SJSU, 45.6%

  • 6 rec., 67 yards vs BYU

Cody Tuttle, Eastern Michigan, 41.6%

  • 2 rec., 37 yards @ Miami OH

Hayden Plinke, UTEP, 36.8%

  • 9 rec., 85 yards vs Rice

Trey Scott, Tulane, 35.8%

  • 2 rec., 38 yards vs UConn

Rodney Mills, UMass, 35.8%

  • 6 rec., 62 yards vs Akron

Terry Pettis, MTSU, 35.7%

  • 5 rec., 126 yards, 1 TD vs Marshall

Deon Watson, Idaho, 34.4%

  • 7 rec., 109 yards, 2 TD @ South Alabama

Jordan Leggett, Clemson, 34%

  • 6 rec., 101 yards vs Florida State

Bryce Williams is a guy that Chris Burke singled out on last week’s On The Clock podcast, which he was kind enough to invite me to join. He hasn’t made much noise in this space, but he could be another nice piece of the 2016 class… Also, Jordan Leggett has been really good for Clemson this year. He’s got the size and production I like to see.

Seasonal TE Leaders

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 25.0% of team’s receiving yards

  • 5’11, 236lbs, Sophomore

Gerald Everett, South Alabama, 24.8%

  • 6’4, 225lbs, Junior

Rodney Mills, UMass, 24.6%

  • 6’1, 205lbs, Senior

David Morgan II, UTSA, 24.1%

  • 6’4, 260lbs, Senior

Dan Vitale, Northwestern, 23.7%

  • 6’2, 235lbs, Senior

Jake Butt, Michigan, 23.1%

  • 6’6, 248lbs, Junior

Bucky Hodges, Virginia Tech, 22.4%

  • 6’7, 241lbs, R-Sophomore

Matt Weiser, Buffalo, 21.8%

  • 6’5, 255lbs, Senior

Austin Hooper, Stanford, 21.4%

  • 6’4, 248lbs, Junior

There’s not a whole lot of shakeup in this list, but I’m starting to get excited for how good this TE draft class could be. Underclassmen like Hooper, Butt, Cam Serigne, Hodges, Hunter Henry, Jordan Leggett mixed in with senior like David Morgan and Matt Weiser could make for a fun draft class. Comparatively, tight end was really week last year.

Special Teams Studs of the week

Janarion Grant, Rutgers, WR, 237 return yards, 1 ret. TD, 3 rec., 26 rec. yards @ Michigan

Braeden West, SMU, RB, 180 ret. yards, 1 ret. TD, 1 rec., 45 rec. yards vs Temple

Aregeros Turner, Northern Illinois, WR, 168 ret. yards, 2 rec., 21 rec. yards @ Toledo

Tre Johnson, North Texas, RB, 168 ret. yards @ La Tech

KaVontae Turpin, TCU, WR, 153 ret. yards, 7 rec., 107 rec. yards, 4 rush, 22 rush yards @ Oklahoma State

Keelan Ewaliko, Hawaii, WR, 142 ret. yards @ UNLV

Xavier Johnson, South Alabama, RB, 141 ret. yards, 1 ret. TD, 9 rush., 148 rush. yards, 1 rush. TD vs Idaho

Tyrell Johnson, Arizona, WR, 139 ret. yards, 1 rec., 21 rec. yards @ USC

Jakeem Grant, Texas Tech, WR, 131 ret. yards, 5 rec., 8 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ WVU

Brisly Estime, Syracuse, WR, 130 ret. yards, 1 rec., 36 rec. yards @ Louisville

Three players return from last week: Keelan, Jakeem and Braeden. Keelan Ewaliko is interesting because he’s got more size than most return men at 5’11 200lbs. He’s listed as a receiver, but hasn’t contributed there yet… Braeden West, like Jakeem Grant, is a really small human being, especially for being a running back, but he certainly filled up the box score last week… KaVontae Turpin looks to be the only Horned Frog who enjoyed his trip to Stillwater.

Seasonal Special Teams Leaders

Janarion Grant, Rutgers, WR, 97.5% of team’s return yards

  • 5’11, 170lbs, Junior

Kylen Towner, Western Kentucky, WR, 92.6%

  • 5’8, 175lbs, Sophomore

Tyler Ervin, SJSU, RB, 90.6%

  • 5’10, 177lbs, Senior

Bishop Louie, Tulsa, WR, 88.1%

  • 5’10, 170lbs, Sophomore

Maurice Thomas, Miami OH, RB, 88.1%

  • 5’11, 176lb, Freshman

Brisly Estime, Syracuse, WR, 87.9%

  • 5’9, 178lbs, Junior

Jakeem Grant, Texas Tech, WR, 85.7%

  • 5’7, 168lbs, Senior

Teddy Ruben, Troy, WR, 85.6%

  • 5’7, 161lbs, Senior

KaVontae Turpin, TCU, WR, 84.6%

  • 5’9, 152lbs, Freshman

Derek Keaton, Georgia Southern, WR, 83.1%

  • 5’11, 185lbs, Senior

I mixed this one up this week. I had been tracking raw yardage production (toward the goal of finding hidden value), but decided to switch to market share to see who were the true return maestros. The two names that really stand out are Tyler Ervin, who is fourth in this category and fourth in the seasonal running back category. That dude does everything for SJSU… Also, Jakeem Grant is super small, but he’s awesome in all the ways you’d hope for him to be. Athleticism is going to be huge for him when we get to draft season.

The College Football Market Share Report – Week 4 Recap

Welcome to the College Football Market Share Report, where each week I’ll be running through the players who are shouldering an exceptional percentage of their team’s offense AND defense. Yes, this week I’ve added three defensive metrics to the conversation. I also, separated out the Tight End group, so we can start monitoring them.

In the past, my prospect analysis has typically waited until after the season to get going, but by tracking these stats on a weekly basis in season we can more easily identify exceptional talents before everyone else does.

Note that the commentary below will highlight the most recent week’s top performers as well as seasonal leaders. Also, since this is somewhat of an experimental article, I’m going to ask for your feedback on how this should evolve moving forward, so feel free to leave a comment.

Be warned that this article is dense with numbers. I’d recommend skimming through the names and then checking out the blurbs at the bottom of each section.

**Finally, if you are introduced to any new players through this article, and you end up writing about them, please link back to this work. Thanks!**

Quarterbacks of the week

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss, 92.1% of offensive yards

447 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, -25 rush yards @ Nebraska

Ryan Metz, UTEP, 90.2%

275 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 46 rush yards vs Incarnate Word

Cameron Coffman, Wyoming, 87.7%

366 pass yards, 4 TD, 2 INT, -8 rush yards vs New Mexico

Alex McGough, FIU, 87.7%

263 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 7 rush yards @ Louisiana Tech

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State, 87.1%

270 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 14 rush yards @ Auburn

Kyle Allen, Texas A&M, 85.8%

358 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 5 rush yards @ Arkansas

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 85.3%

402 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 58 rush yards @ Purdue

David Blough, Purdue, 84.5%

340 pass yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 11 rush yards, 1 rush TD vs BG

Cody Kessler, USC, 83.7%

375 pass yards, 5 TD, 1 INT, 6 rush yards @ Arizona State

Brenden Motley, Virginia Tech, 83.4%

281 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 85 rush yards, 1 rush TD @ ECU

For as much buzz as Dak Prescott got last year, it feels like he’s under-appreciated this year, despite posting nearly as impressive numbers through four games… Let’s just appreciate BG’s Matt Johnson for a moment; he’s thrown for 400 yards in each game this season, including three road contests against Power-5 foes (@Tennessee, @Maryland, @Purdue). He won two of those games.

QB Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Offensive Yards

Luke Falk, Washington State, 80.5%

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 79.3%

Brandon Doughty, WKU, 78.0%

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 77.0%

Cameron Coffman, Wyoming, 76.7%

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 76.5%

Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut, 75.2%

Matt Lineham, Idaho, 73.9%

Matt Davis, SMU, 73.3%

Johnny McCrary, Vanderbilt, 72.9%

Last week I got a question about “what’s a good market share for quarterbacks?” To be honest, at this point, the metric is more descriptive than predictive, but that doesn’t make it any less interesting in my opinion. Here are how recent Heisman-winning quarterbacks faired in this metric in their trophy-claiming campaign.

Robert Griffin III (2011) – 65.4%

Johnny Manziel (2012) – 70.5%

Jameis Winston (2013) – 58.8%

Marcus Mariota (2014) – 63.7%

Obviously none of the players included in this week’s leaderboard is in the Heisman conversation (or on a team good enough to get them the national spotlight) but it’s something to keep an eye on. For what it’s worth, TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin is at 65.2% so far.

Running backs of the week

Kalif Phillips, Charlotte, 80.1% of team’s offensive yards

165 rush yards vs Florida Atlantic

Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 63.5%

300 rush yards, 3 rush TD, 4 rec. 45 rec. yards vs Fresno State

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 59.1%

244 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 1 rec., 7 rec. yards @ Syracuse

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 50.0%

206 rush yards, 1 rec., 38 rec. yards, 59 ret. yards @ Oregon State

Dwayne Washington, Washington, 49.4%

109 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 3 rec., 19 rec. yards vs Cal

Tony Pittman, Marshall, 48.7%

129 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 1 rec., 6 rec. yards @ Kent State

James Butler, Nevada, 46.7%

177 rush yards, 1 rush TD @ Buffalo

Greg Howell, Florida Atlantic, 44.6%

56 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 1 rec., 19 rec. yards @ Charlotte

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 44.2%

56 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 4 rec., 51 rec. yards @ Penn State

Kenneth Dixon, Louisiana Tech, 40.7%

169 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 1 rec., 23 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs FIU

More on Leonard Fournette in a moment, but how about SJSU’s Tyler Ervin and SDSU’s Donnel Pumphrey? Both backs are making their second consecutive appearance on this list and have been prolific undersized workhorses… And shoutout to Christian McCaffrey for being the #4 workhorse RB of the week while also contributing 59 return yards in the Cardinal’s road victory over Oregon State.

RB Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Offensive Yards

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 51.9%

Aaron Jones, UTEP, 51.0%

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 45.7%

Jahad Thomas, Temple, 44.6%

Tyler Ervin, San Jose State, 43.4%

Devontae Booker, Utah, 39.2%

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 38.1%

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 38.0%

Demario Richard, Arizona State, 35.6%

Jordan Howard, Indiana, 35.6%

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, 35.6%

Leonard Fournette has accounted for 51.9% of LSU’s offense so far. By comparison, the last two running backs to win the Heisman accounted for the following: Reggie Bush ’05 (32.7%)  Mark Ingram ’09 (35.3%)… Keep an eye on Indiana RB Jordan Howard, who was a stud at UAB before transfering to the Hoosier program to take over the role vacated by Tevin Coleman. He takes on Ohio State this week in a game that very well might feature the two best draft-eligible RBs in America.

Receivers of the week

Jordan Williams, Ball State, 74.7% of team’s receiving yards

8 receptions, 133 rec. yards, 2 rec. TD @ Northwestern

BJ Johnson, Georgia Southern, 73.2%

4 receptions, 93 rec. yards @ Idaho

Daniel Braverman, Western Michigan, 72.8%

10 receptions, 123 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Ohio State

Drew Morgan, Arkansas, 68.9%

8 receptions, 155 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Texas A&M

DeAndre Ball, Army, 68.4%

2 receptions, 67 rec. yards @ Eastern Michigan

Ricky Jeune, Georgia Tech, 63.6%

4 receptions, 91 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Duke

Carlos Wiggins, New Mexico, 59.8%

1 reception, 64 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Wyoming

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 58.1%

8 receptions, 165 rec. yards, 2 rec. TD vs Georgia Southern

KeeSean Johnson, Fresno State, 56.6%

7 receptions, 90 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ SJSU

Quinton Pedroza, Hawaii, 55.8%

10 receptions, 134 rec. yards, 0 rec. TD @ WIsconsin

On a weekend when two of my absolute favorite WR prospects, (Tajae Sharpe and Corey Davis, both from the MAC) got their time in the national spotlight, it was Ball State’s Jordan Williams who had the show-stealing performance. He’s not quite Tajae or Corey, but he’s the biggest of the trio and has enjoyed a rock-solid career… Shoutout to Arkansas WR Drew Morgan who came through with a huge game in the absence of top target Keon Hatcher.

WR Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Receiving Yards

Jamir Tillman, Navy, 65.5%

Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh, 55.5%

Dameon Gamblin, New Mexico, 51.2%

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 50.7%

BJ Johnson, Georgia Southern, 50.4%

Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 48.3%

Jordan Villamin, Oregon State, 46.6%

Will Fuller, Notre Dame, 46.0%

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 45.7%

Bryan Holmes, Troy, 45.7%

Say hello to Oregon State WR Jordan Villamin, who is a new arrival on this leaderboard. The 6’5 230lb redshirt sophomore (20 years old) is starting to look a lot like a Mike Evans-ish prospect. If you can add him now in a devy league, I would. The kid’s stock is going to skyrocket as the country wakes up to him… And when I say “wake up”, I mean that literally; many of Oregon State’s games finish well after midnight on the east coast.

Tight Ends of the week

Matt Weiser, Buffalo, 38.8% of team’s receiving yards

10 receptions, 131 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Nevada

Ryan Yurachek, Marshall, 38.4%

4 receptions, 58 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Kent State

Joshua Perkins, Washington, 36.2%

5 receptions, 55 rec. yards vs Cal

Ethan Wolf, Tennessee, 33.3%

4 receptions, 55 rec. yards @ Florida

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 32.8%

5 receptions, 84 rec. yards, 2 rec. TD, 2 rushes, 28 rush yards @ South Alabama

Austin Hooper, Stanford, 30.7%

2 receptions, 50 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ Oregon State

Steven Scheu, Vanderbilt, 29.4%

5 receptions, 57 rec. yards @ Ole Miss

Hayden Plinke, UTEP, 29.1%

4 receptions, 80 rec. yards vs Incarnate Word

Cam Serigne, Wake Forest, 27.3%

5 receptions, 72 rec. yards, 1 pass attempt vs Indiana

Bucky Hodges, Virginia Tech, 26.0%

5 receptions, 73 rec. yards @ ECU

Honestly, I don’t know very much about this crew except for Hodges and Serigne. The one name that stands out though is Matt Weiser. For one, college tight ends almost never catch 10 passes in a game unless their name is Jace Amaro or Dennis Pitta. Also, homie is 6’5 255lbs, so there’s some meat on those bones.

TE Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Receiving Yards

Gerald Everett, South Alabama, 31.1%

David Morgan II, UTSA, 26.2%

Jaylen Samuels, NC State, 25.6%

Ben McCord, Central Michigan, 23.9%

Jake Butt, Michigan, 22.3%

Tyler Higbee, WKU, 22.2%

C.J. Conrad, Kentucky, 22.1%

Hayden Plinke, UTEP, 21.3%

Jerell Adams, South Carolina, 21.0%

Chris Loving, North Texas, 20.9%

If there’s an early front runner to be my top-rated TE for the 2016 draft, it’s Jake Butt. Under Harbaugh, Stanford churned out a series of solid NFL prospects and Harbaugh now appears to be working the same mojo on Michigan’s TE. Listed at 6’6 248lbs, Butt has a strong combination of production, size and pro-style experience…Jaylen Samuels interested me at first, but then I realized he’s only 5’11 and is more of an H-back.

Special Teams Studs of the week

Olamide Zaccheaus, RB, Virginia, 231 return yards vs Boise

J.D. McKissic, WR, Arkansas State, 211 @ Toledo

Brisly Estime, WR, Syracuse, 202 vs LSU

Byron Marshall, WR, Oregon, 178 vs Utah

DeAndre Reaves, WR, Marshall, 170 @ Kent State

Austin Waller, RB, Rice, 140 @ Baylor

Daje Johnson, WR, Texas, 137 vs Oklahoma State

Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State, 137 @ Penn State

Jae’Lon Oglesby, RB, Memphis, 132 vs Cincinnati

Aregeros Turner, WR, Northern Illinois, 117 @ BC

Earlier this year at Rotoviz I wrote about the hidden value of special teams stats for prospects, so I like to monitor these performances.

Special Teams Leaders – Seasonal Top 10

Janarion Grant, WR, Rutgers, 109 return yards/game, 3 return TD

Brisly Estime, WR, Syracuse, 109 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

J.D. McKissic, WR, Arkansas State, 102 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

Byron Marshall, WR, Oregon, 96 ret. yds/gm

Kylen Towner, WR, WKU, 90 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

Rashaad Penny, RB, SDSU, 90 ret. yds/gm, 2 ret. TD

Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M, 90 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

Brett Winnegan, RB, UTSA, 89 ret. yds/gm

Daje Johnson, WR, Texas, 89 ret. yds/gm, 1 ret. TD

Devin Fuller, WR, UCLA, 85 ret. yds/gm

If there’s one name here that I’m really high on (besides Christian Kirk) it is Oregon’s Byron Marshall, who I think could be a Randall Cobb-ish, multi-threat prospect.

Defensive Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Total Tackles

Kentrell Brothers, LB, Missouri, 18.8% of total team tackles

Blake Martinez, ILB, Stanford, 18.7%

Steve Longa, LB, Rutgers, 16.4%

Anthony Walker, LB, Northwestern, 16.1%

Elandon Roberts, ILB, Houston, 16.1%

Skai Moore, LB, South Carolina, 15.9%

Christian Tago, LB, San Jose State, 15.4%

Kavon Frazier, DB, Central Michigan, 15.3%

Jalen Reeves-Maybin, LB, Tennessee, 15.2%

Nick Vigil, LB, Utah State, 15.1%

If you’re looking for a reference point here, Luke Kuechly has the TWO best seasons in my IDP database for this metric going back to 2005. In his final season he tallied 22% and in his second-to-last season he accounted for 20.7%. Anything north of 17% should be held in very high regard… Kavon Frazier is the only defensive back on this list.

Defensive Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Tackles for Loss

Ben Goodman Jr., DE, Kansas, 56.3% of team’s tackles for loss

Darius Latham, DT, Indiana, 41.7%

Jerrian Roberts, DE, North Texas, 41.7%

Woody Baron, DT, Virginia Tech, 38.9%

Bernard Dawson, DE, Georgia Southern, 37.5%

Anthony Walker, LB, Northwestern, 33.3%

Jon Schobert, OLB, Wisconsin, 32.8%

Trevon Coley, DT, Florida Atlantic, 31.6%

Nick Gilbo, LB, Buffalo, 30.6%

Alvin Jones, LB, UTEP, 30.0%

Alonzo McGee, LB, Georgia State, 30.0%

Quinton Bradley, DE, Idaho, 30.0%

Dominique Tovell, LB, Louisiana-Lafayette, 30.0%

If you’re looking for a flag bearer here, look at Aaron Donald, who accounted for 33.1% of Pitt’s tackles for loss in his final season. Anything above 25% is quite good, which all of these guys are now, but expect them to come back to earth as the sample size grows… Note that Indiana’s Darius Latham has been suspended for this weekend’s game against Ohio State, which is a killer for that D… Also, Anthony Walker from Northwestern is the only player to appear on both the tackles and tackles-for-loss leaderboards.

Defensive Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Passes Broken Up

Latrell Gibbs, DB, Appalachian State, 75% of team’s PBU

Tyree Simmons, DB, Colorado State, 70%

Mike Stevens, CB, NC State, CB, 66.7%

Heath Harding, CB, Miami OH, 66.7%

D.J. May, LB, Wyoming, 60%

Nick Nelson, DB, Hawaii, 57.1%

Jalen Davis, CB, Utah State, 50%

Anthony Makransky, DB, Wyoming, 50%

Jeremiah Harris, DL, Eastern Michigan, 50%

Brian Peavy, DB, Iowa State, 50%

Avonte Maddox, DB, Pittsburgh, 50%

Kevin Vaccaro, S, Texas, 50%

Lance Austin, DB, Georgia Tech, 50%

Anything above 35% is really strong. Again, expect regression here. Oh, and say hi to another Texas Vaccaro.

Questions

  1. Did you like seeing the defensive metrics, or are those overkill?
  2. I heard some feedback that the old layout was tough to read. Is this new wordpress theme better?
  3. Would you like access to the data set that helped generate this article? If so, you could email me at THECFX at GMAIL dot COM, or I could just set up a link with a free download. Let me know.

The College Football Market Share Report – Week 3 recap

Welcome to the College Football Market Share Report, where each week I’ll be running through the players who are shouldering an exceptional percentage of their team’s offense.

In the past, my prospect analysis has typically waited until after the season to get going, but by tracking these metrics on a weekly basis in season we can more easily identify exceptional talents before everyone else does.

Note that the commentary below will highlight the most recent week’s top performers as well as seasonal leaders. Also, since this is somewhat of an experimental article, I’m going to ask for your feedback on how this should evolve moving forward, so feel free to leave a comment.

As this is somewhat dense with numbers, I’d recommend skimming through the names and then checking out the blurbs at the bottom of each section.

Quarterbacks of the week

Shuler Bentley, Old Dominion, 93.9% of team’s offensive yards

  • 151 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, -12 rush yards vs NC State

Blake Frohnapfel, UMass, 87.4%

  • 393 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, -10 rush yards vs Temple

Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky, 87.1%

  • 484 pass yards, 3 TD, 2 INT, 11 rush yards @ Indiana

P.J. Walker, Temple, 83.6%

  • 391 pass yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, -8 rush yards @ UMass

Chad Kelly, Ole Miss, 83.6%

  • 341 pass yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 21 rush yards @ Alabama

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 83.6%

  • 443 pass yards, 4 TD, 0 INT, 41 rush yards vs Memphis

Jake Browning, Washington, 83%

  • 368 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, -1 rush yards vs Utah State

C.J. Beathard, Iowa, 81.8%

  • 258 pass yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 39 rush yards vs Pitt

Jerrod Heard, Texas, 81.1%

  • 364 pass yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 163 rush yards vs California

Tyler Jones, Texas State, 79.5%

  • 310 pass yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 160 rush yards vs Southern Miss

There’s a lot to talk about here. Texas’ Jerrod Heard went bananas on national TV against Cal and drew comparisons to Vince Young… Chad “Swag” Kelly took Ole Miss on the road and defeated Alabama. No small feat. The Rebels are now the #3 ranked team in the country… It looks like Washington coach Chris Petersen (formerly at Boise) has his new Kellen Moore. Somewhat undersized freshman Jake Browning has been great so far… Finally, shoutout to Tyler Jones from Texas State, who Benjamin Allbright and I were discussing on Twitter late last week and then Jones proceeds to put up 470 yards of total offense.  Maybe undersized, maybe from a small conference, but maybe really awesome? Time will tell.

QB Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Offensive Yards

Luke Falk, Washington State, 80.5%

Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky, 78.8%

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green, 77.5%

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, 77.0%

Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe, 76.8%

Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut, 75.5%

Johnny McCrary, Vanderbilt, 75.1%

Matt Linehan, Idaho, 74.1%

Matt Davis, SMU, 73.4%

Blake Kemp, East Carolina, 73.2%

Nothing too surprising here – three quarterbacks from pass-happy teams leading the way – but this is probably a helpful list to keep in mind for finding undervalued DFS quarterbacks.

Running backs of the week

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 58.1% of team’s offensive yards

  • 15 rush yards, 71 receiving yards, 1 rec. TD vs NC State

Demario Richard, Arizona State, 56.8%

  • 104 rush yards, 4 receptions, 151 receiving yards, 2 rec. TD vs New Mexico

Devontae Booker, Utah, 55.8%

  • 156 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 5 receptions, 56 receiving yards @ Fresno

Paul Perkins, UCLA, 54.5%

  • 219 rush yards, 1 rush TD vs BYU

Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State, 51.5%

  • 102 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 5 receptions, 55 receiving yards vs South Alabama

Justin Jackson, Northwestern, 50.9%

  • 120 rush yards, 2 receptions, 18 receiving yards @ Duke

Nick Holley, Kent State, 50%

  • 58 rush yards, 3 receptions, 13 receiving yards @ Minnesota

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 48.9%

  • 228 rush yards, 3 rush TD, 1 reception, 9 rec. yards vs Auburn

Tyler Ervin, SJSU, 48.6%

  • 93 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 6 receptions, 30 rec. yards @ Oregon State

Joel Bouagnon, Northern Illinois, 45.3%

  • 78 rush yards, 3 receptions, 8 rec. yards @ Ohio State

On a team with national championship aspirations, but lead by a freshman quarterback, UCLA’s Paul Perkins is quietly putting together a fantastic season. If he can continue to take the load of Josh Rosen and the Bruins win the Pac-12 South (two BIG ifs) I would think Perkins would be a Heisman finalist. And he’s not just a one-hit wonder; he balled in 2014 too.

RB Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Offensive Yards

Ray Lawry, Old Dominion, 51.3%

Aaron Jones, UTEP, 51.0%

Leonard Fournette, LSU, 48.2%

Devontae Booker, Utah, 45.1%

Jahad Thomas, Temple, 44.6%

Kareem Hunt, Toledo, 41.7%

Devon Johnson, Marshall, 38.4%

Dalvin Cook, Florida State, 38.0%

Brian Hill, Wyoming, 37.5%

Demario Richard, Arizona State, 37.5%

Maybe you’ve never heard of Ray Lawry (2017 eligible), but it’s time to start paying attention. The 5’11 200b sophomore is a one-man wrecking crew for the Monarchs… speaking of which, how about Leonard Fournette? In consecutive weeks he has torn apart SEC defenses and in the process seen his Heisman odds go from 13-1 on September 8 (eighth-best odds) to 3.5-1 this week, which makes him the Vegas favorite to win the award.

Receivers of the week

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 63.7% of team’s receiving yards

  • 8 receptions, 193 rec. yards, 2 rec. TD vs Rice

Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 63.2%

  • 8 receptions, 156 rec. yards, 3 rec. TD vs Air Force

DaeSean Hamilton, Penn State, 61.0%

  • 5 receptions, 86 rec. yards vs Rutgers

Trent Sherfield, Vanderbilt, 60.9%

  • 16 receptions, 240 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Austin Peay

Gerald Everett, South Alabama, 60.7%

  • 8 receptions, 164 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD @ SDSU

Roger Lewis, Bowling Green, 58.9%

  • 7 receptions, 261 rec. yards, 3 rec. TD vs Memphis

Tyler Boyd, Pitt, 57.7%

  • 10 receptions, 131 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD, 7 rush yards @ Iowa

DeAndre Bell, Army, 57.4%

  • 1 reception, 31 rec. yards vs Wake Forest

JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC, 56.3%

  • 8 receptions, 153 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs Stanford

DeBrandon Sanders, Navy, 56.1%

  • 1 reception, 23 rec. yards, 1 rush, 20 rush yards vs East Carolina

Jordan Payton, UCLA, 55.7%

  • 4 receptions, 59 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD vs BYU

Even if Air Force isn’t exactly a defensive juggernaut, Aaron Burbridge’s performance shouldn’t be discounted. He’s strung together three consecutive 100+ yard games to start the season, is catching passes from Connor Cook and has the size to intrigue NFL types. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Cody Latimer-esque ascent over the next six months. Just something to monitor.

WR Leaders – Seasonal Top 10 – Market Share of Receiving Yards

Jamir Tillman, Navy, 72.2%

Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh, 55.5%

Chris Godwin, Penn State, 55.1%

Carlos Harris, North Texas, 54.1%

Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State, 53.8%

Will Fuller, Notre Dame, 52.1%

Dameon Gamblin, New Mexico, 51.2%

Tanner Gentry, Wyoming, 49.1%

Devin Scott, Louisiana-Lafayette, 48.1%

Dezmon Epps, Idaho, 47.4%

Should I exclude military school players from this list, since their likelihood of NFL relevance is so unlikely?… Tyler Boyd is the most noteworthy player here for several reasons. First, he’s putting together an awesome season as the obvious focal point of the offense and still nobody can stop him. Also, his birth year had been previously reported as 1993, but now the official Pitt website lists it as 1994. If it’s true that he’s a year younger than we originally thought – a 20 year old freshman in 2013 – his dynasty stock gets a significant boost on several fronts… And say what’s up to Will Fuller, who is smallish, but is tearing it up for the Irish.

Special Teams Studs of the week

Earlier this year at Rotoviz I detailed the hidden value of special teams stats in prospect analysis. Keeping with that theme, here’s a look at the top players making an impact in the return game.

Devin Fuller, UCLA, 194 return yards vs BYU

Ryan Switzer, UNC, 168 return yards, 1 ret. TD vs Illinois

Shon Cardon, South Carolina, 162 return yards @ Georgia

Johnny Holton, Cincinnati, 125 return yards @ Miami OH

DJ May, Wyoming, 122 return yards @ Washington State

Brandon Smith, Texas State, 122 return yards vs Southern Miss

Diontae Johnson, Toledo, 119 return yards vs Iowa State

Adoree’ Jackson, USC, 118 return yards vs Stanford

Solomon Vault, Northwestern, 118 return yards, 1 ret. TD @ Duke

Brett Winnegan, UTSA, 112 return yards   @ Oklahoma State

If there’s a Wes Welker-type prospect (undersized, premium special teamer) on this list it’s Ryan Switzer. In his debut campaign in 2013 he averaged more than 20 yards per punt return and is back on a similar path this year after being kept somewhat under wraps last year. Also, randomly, he’s thrown two passes in his career – indicating a high level of trust by the coaching staff – both of which went for touchdowns.

Special Teams Leaders – Seasonal Top 10

Janarion Grant, Rutgers, 129.3 return yards/g

Kylen Towner, WKU, 107.0

Autrey Golden, UTEP, 96.6

Christian Kirk, Texas A&M, 93.7

Brett Winnegan, UTSA, 93.0

De’Chavon “Gump” Hayes, Arizona State, 87.5

Jeremiah Bryson, MTSU, 84.3

Diontae Johnson, Toledo, 82.0

Devin Fuller, UCLA, 79.7

Eric Hawkins, Arkansas, 79.5

One player on this list who made a huge splash on opening weekend and who I’ve been meaning to write about is Texas A&M freshman Christian Kirk. He’s a solid 5’11 200lbs, doesn’t turn 19 until November and is already balling. In addition to his special teams contributions, he’s also contributing on offense. At this point, he’s probably the most valuable 2015 freshman devy prospect in the game.

QUESTIONS

  1. For wide receivers, I like “market share of receiving yards” since we’ve used those for a while and people generally understand the continuum, but what did you think about the QB and RB breakdowns being based on market share of offense? Is there something else you’d rather see?
  2. Should I keep service academy players out of this list since they almost never end up playing in the NFL and part of this exercise is to help in prospect identification?
  3. Would you like access to the data set that helped generate this article? If so, you could email me at THECFX at GMAIL dot COM, or I could just set up a link with a free download. Let me know.